NFL Week 16 Picks: Best Bets (Saturday)
Saturday features two NFL games. First, the Washington Commanders host the Philadelphia Eagles, then the Chicago Bears host the Green Bay Packers. In Washington, I expect the Eagles to build off a great offensive performance last week against one of the worst defenses in the league. Then, in Chicago, I anticipate the Packers' defense making a statement on the road.
Here are the NFL best bets for Saturday, December 20.
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Saturday’s Best NFL Week 16 Bets
(Odds Courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)
Philadelphia Eagles Over 26.5 Points (-106)
The Eagles' offensive struggles have been well-documented. However, this team is still averaging 22.9 points per game, and they just put up 31 last week. Granted, that 31-point performance came against the Las Vegas Raiders, but it was still huge for the Eagles to score more than 21 points for the first time since their bye week.
Before last week's performance, the Eagles averaged just 16.2 points per game in their previous five games, so maybe last week was a fluke. Either way, the Commanders' defense has been very problematic this season, allowing 26.8 points per game and giving up 382.6 total yards (2nd-most) per contest.
Additionally, the Commanders have allowed at least 27 points in eight games this season.
Green Bay Packers Moneyline (+106)
The Packers opened as 3-point favorites, but the spread has shifted to Bears -1.5 as of Friday evening. The Packers will be without Micah Parsons, but I still like this defense in this matchup.
The Bears are averaging the second-most rushing yards per game (151.9). However, the Packers have the eighth-best rush defense in football, allowing just 100.5 rushing yards per contest. While the Bears managed 138 rushing yards in the first meeting, the Packers didn't allow a single rush of more than nine yards. Even giving up all those yards, the Packers still won.
The Packers' receiving corps has gotten healthy in recent weeks, and though there is some concern over Christian Watson ahead of this game, it looks like he's going to play. He burned the Bears for two touchdowns in the first meeting. With him and Jayden Reed both on the field, I'll take the Packers to go on the road and pick up a huge win over a defense that has allowed 27 passing touchdowns this year.
Chicago Bears Under 2.5 Total Touchdowns (+108)
The Bears have the ninth-highest-scoring offense in football, but this is a really good price for the Under in this matchup. The Packers are allowing just 20.1 points per game, which is the eighth-fewest in the league. In the first meeting, the Bears scored 21 points, but they only scored two touchdowns.
The Packers have given up at least three touchdowns in two of their last three games, but those performances also came against the Detroit Lions and Denver Broncos. The Lions rank first in scoring offense, and the Broncos are averaging 27.3 points per game at home, which is the ninth-most in the league.
The Bears have scored at least 21 points in four consecutive games, but the Packers have held eight opponents to 20 points or fewer this season.
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Phil Wood is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Phil, check out his archive and follow him @Phil_Wood_Jr.