NFL Week 16 Picks & Predictions: Early Line Movement (2024)
As the season progresses, we monitor all the NFL lines throughout the week, discussing any significant movement that may have happened early in the week.
Below are some of the most significant early line movements for NFL Week 16.
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NFL Week 16 Line Movement
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook unless otherwise noted)
Broncos @ Chargers
- Open: Chargers -3
- Current: Broncos -2.5
Despite losing big to Baker Mayfield and the Buccaneers, the Chargers opened as 3-point favorites against the Denver Broncos.
A win for either team will go a long way in the AFC Wild Card standings, which is why we have seen this line drop to 2.5 in favor of the Broncos.
Texans @ Chiefs
- Open: Chiefs -4
- Current: Texans -1.5
In the first of our Saturday doubleheader, we saw the early lookahead line set the Chiefs as 4-point home favorites.
After Patrick Mahomes left the game early last week with what now has been reported as a high-ankle sprain, we saw this line re-open with the Texans as 3-point chalk.
With Mahomes’ availability unknown, we have seen some support coming on the Chiefs, dropping this line to 1.5 as of Tuesday morning.
Steelers @ Ravens
In another important divisional showdown, the Ravens opened as 5-point favorites against the Steelers. By Tuesday, morning we had seen this line jump up to Ravens -6 in most places.
A lot of that could be recency bias as the Steelers lost to the Eagles while the Ravens unleashed hell on the Giants.
Patriots @ Bills
- Open: Bills -13.5
- Current: Bills -14
After a big win against the Lions, sportsbooks opened the Bills as 13.5-point home chalk, which has already moved through the key number of 14.
By the time we went to sleep on Monday night, we saw this line jump to 14 with higher-than-normal juice, signaling we may see another move shortly.
Browns @ Bengals
- Open: Bengals -6
- Current: Bengals -7.5
After a much-needed win to keep their slim playoff hopes alive, the Bengals opened up as 6-point home favorites against their in-state rival.
With Nick Chubb out with a broken foot and second-year quarterback Dorian Thompson-Robinson getting the start, this line quickly jumped through seven and has settled at 7.5 as of Tuesday morning.
Jaguars @ Raiders
- Open: Raiders -1.5
- Current: Jaguars -1.5
In a game many people won’t pay attention to, this line completely flipped since the opener was posted.
The Raiders opened as 1.5-point home favorites. After a pathetic showing on Monday Night Football, this line did a complete 180, with the Jaguars now 1.5-point road chalk.
Buccaneers @ Cowboys
- Open: Buccaneers -4.5
- Current: Buccaneers -4
After both teams won on Sunday, Tampa Bay opened as 4.5-point favorites with immediate support coming in on the Cowboys, knocking this line down to Buccaneers -3.5 with a little buy-back on Tampa Bay, bringing this line back up to Buccaneers -4.