NFL Week 16 Picks: Sleepers & Longshot Bets (2025)
The Week 16 slate features plenty of juicy matchups that could lead to huge games from certain players and teams. De'Von Achane gets to take on the league's worst rush defense, as the Miami Dolphins battle the Cincinnati Bengals. DK Metcalf looks to become the fourth receiver in five weeks to put up at least 110 yards against the Detroit Lions. And, the Houston Texans look to be the second team to shut out the Las Vegas Raiders in as many weeks.
Here are the best NFL Week 16 longshot bets.
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Best NFL Week 16 Longshot Bets
(Odds Courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
De'Von Achane 130+ Rushing Yards (+555)
Getting carries is the biggest obstacle for De’Von Achane. He's averaging 5.8 yards per carry this season, and he's averaged at least five yards per attempt in all but four games. However, he's had 12 or fewer carries in back-to-back contests, and he has 14 or fewer carries in eight games this season.
Despite this, Achane has still managed four 100-yard games, and he's topped 130 yards twice. His season-high is 174 yards against the Buffalo Bills' 30th-ranked rush defense.
This week, Achane faces the league's 32nd-ranked rush defense. The Bengals are allowing 157.9 rushing yards per game and 5.3 yards per attempt. Though they haven't allowed a running back to go for more than 100 yards in five consecutive games. With Quinn Ewers set to lead the Dolphins’ offense, expect Miami to run more often than usual. This could result in one of Achane's biggest performances of the season.
DK Metcalf 110+ Receiving Yards (+498)
DK Metcalf has 55 or fewer yards in eight of his last nine games, but he's topped 120 yards twice this season, and he caught seven passes for 148 yards two weeks ago against the Baltimore Ravens. He's also the clear lead receiver on the Steelers with 808 yards. No one else has more than 352 yards.
With all the injuries the Lions have in their secondary, they're getting destroyed by receivers week after week. Last week, Puka Nacua went for 181 yards. The week before, CeeDee Lamb had 121 yards before suffering a concussion. They've now given up at least 110 yards to a receiver in three of their last four games.
Metcalf is only averaging 57.7 yards per game. But the Lions are the highest-scoring team in the league, and the Steelers are allowing the fifth-most yards per game. The Lions will move up and down the field with ease, which means the Steelers will be throwing a lot. Without many other options, expect Aaron Rodgers to target Metcalf often with great success in a fantastic matchup.
Houston Texans to Win with Shutout (+1000)
Sunday's slate features a late-season game that pits the league's worst offense against the league's best defense. The Texans are allowing just 16.3 points per game, while the Raiders are averaging just 14 points per game.
The Raiders were just shut out 31-0 by the Philadelphia Eagles last week, managing just 75 yards of total offense. Now they have to face the No. 1-ranked total defense, which is allowing only 269.2 yards per game, more than 50 fewer than the Eagles allow.
The Texans haven't shut out a team since Week 4, but they also haven't allowed more than 20 points in a game over their last five contests. The Raiders have now been shut out twice this season. The offense has no identity. In a matchup against the league's best defense, it's hard not to see the value in taking this prop at +1000 odds.
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Phil Wood is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Phil, check out his archive and follow him @Phil_Wood_Jr.