NFL Week 16 Player Prop Bets Odds, Picks & Predictions: Fitz’s Favorites (2022)
Weather conditions generally don’t influence the way I bet player props, but this week is an exception. A number of this weekend’s games are going to get brutal winter weather, and the dire forecasts factor into some of this week’s selections.
I’m giving you a season-high 10 picks this week. Why? Because I’m on a heater and want to make the most of it. I’m 22-7 on player props over the last four weeks and went 7-1 last week. Gamblor, the god of wagering, is probably reading this and preparing to smite me, so I’ll just shut up now.
Before we get to the Week 16 slate, a quick recap of Week 15 …
The wins: Matt Ryan under 254.5 passing yards, Josh Allen over 1.5 touchdown passes, Kareem Hunt under 24.5 rushing yards, David Montgomery over 77.5 rushing + receiving yards, Mike Gesicki under 17.5 receiving yards, Olamide Zaccheaus under 31.5 receiving yards, Justin Jefferson over 93.5 receiving yards.
The loss: Miles Sanders over 69.5 rushing yards
Here are my favorite selections for Week 16 …
View our Pick of the Day in the BettingPros mobile app (free!) >>
Last week: 7-1
Season record: 65-40
All odds are courtesy of DraftKings, as of Thursday afternoon.
Aaron Rodgers UNDER 251.5 passing yards
Rodgers is averaging 220.9 passing yards per game this season and has cleared this number only twice this season in 14 games. He’s averaging 6.8 yards per pass attempt, the second-lowest mark in his 15 seasons as the Packers’ starting quarterback. Yes, Rodgers is facing a Dolphins defense that is giving up 288.4 passing yards per game and a league-high 8.3 yards per attempt. But even with the emergence of rookie WR Christian Watson, the Green Bay passing game doesn’t have the quick-strike capability it had before the Packers traded Davante Adams to the Raiders. This should be a leisurely paced game, with the Packers ranking 30th in offensive pace and the Dolphins 17th. That means fewer offensive plays than usual and a small but important edge for people taking the unders on Packers-Dolphins player props.
Andy Dalton UNDER 151.5 passing yards
This has almost nothing to do with Dalton being a backup-caliber quarterback or with the rejuvenated Cleveland defense ranking second in DVOA against the pass since Week 11. This is mostly about the forecast for Cleveland on Saturday. Saints-Browns is going to be played in almost inhuman conditions. The temperature is going to hover around 13 degrees, with winds of 25-35 mph, gusting as high as 50 mph. There’s also a chance of snow. We’re not going to see much passing in this game because of the fierce winds, and I suspect the Saints are going to let Taysom Hill take a lot of snaps as a wildcat quarterback. If this yardage total for Dalton were 20 yards lower, I’d still bet the under.
Josh Allen OVER 48.5 rushing yards
As with the Saints-Browns game in Cleveland, the Bills-Bears game in Chicago is going to be played in severely inhospitable conditions. The forecast: 11 degrees with winds of 20-30 mph. Passing conditions will be suboptimal to say the least, so I would expect Allen to do quite a bit of running. He’s topped this number in four of his last seven games, and Allen ran for 77 yards against the Dolphins last week in wintry conditions in Buffalo. Allen will be up against a Bears defense that has faced the most rushing attempts (88) by opposing quarterbacks and has given up the eighth-most rushing yardage (331) to QBs.
Isaiah Pacheco OVER 68.5 rushing yards
Pacheco had topped this number in five of his last six games dating back to Week 10. He’s averaged 15.8 carries and 80.0 rushing yards a game over that stretch. The Chiefs’ rookie running back will be facing a Seattle defense that’s been getting steamrolled in the running game. The Seahawks have given up an average of 201.6 rushing yards over their last five games, allowing no fewer than 161 rushing yards in any game during that stretch. And yes, weather could be a factor with this bet, too. With Kansas City expecting frosty temperatures in the upper teens for this game, the Chiefs might be slightly more run-heavy than usual.
Joe Mixon UNDER 60.5 rushing yards
Over the first five games of the season, Mixon averaged 19.2 carries a game. In the seven games Mixon has played since, he’s averaged 12.4 carries. Veteran backup Samaje Perine has been playing more snaps of late and cutting into Mixon’s workload. Mixon has cleared this number in only two of his last six games, and he’s had fewer than 28 rushing yards in three of his last five outings. The Bengals face the Patriots, who have given up 81.2 rushing yards per game to running backs, the seventh-lowest total in the league.
Brian Robinson UNDER 43.5 rushing yards
Robinson has averaged 18.4 carries and 86.6 rushing yards over his last five games, but a Week 16 road game against the 49ers doesn’t set up well for him. San Francisco’s airtight defense is giving up a league-low 57.4 rushing yards per game and 3.3 yards per carry to opposing RBs. The Commanders are 7-point underdogs, so they might not have a run-friendly game script if they’re playing from behind.
Tyler Allgeier UNDER 56.5 rushing yards
Allgeier’s yardage total is being inflated by his 139-yard rushing day against the Saints last week. The rookie from BYU had run for fewer than 56 yards in each of his four previous games. Allgeier shares rushing duties with Cordarrelle Patterson, and rookie QB Desmond Ridder is going to do some running, too. The Falcons face a vicious Ravens run defense on Saturday. The Browns managed to run for 143 yards against the Ravens last week, but in Baltimore’s six previous games, the Ravens held their opponents under 100 rushing yards. In four of those games, Baltimore held its opponent under 50 rushing yards.
Travis Kelce OVER 75.5 receiving yards
Here’s my favorite bet of the week. Kelce is averaging 81.7 receiving yards a game this season. He’s topped this number in 8-of-14 games. And his matchup? Yum yum. Kelce faces a Seattle defense that gave up 93 receiving yards and two touchdowns to 49ers TE George Kittle last week. The Seahawks are giving up 61.2 yards per game and 14.5 yards per catch to tight ends. Expect the best tight end in the game to cruise past this insultingly low yardage prop.
George Kittle UNDER 44.5 receiving yards
Yes, Kittle racked up 93 yards and two TDs against the Seahawks last week, but as noted above, Seattle is clueless about how to cover tight ends. The 49ers’ Week 16 opponents, the Commanders, are allowing a league-low 30.4 receiving yards to TEs, and they rank No. 3 in DVOA against tight ends. Kittle has cleared this number in only two of his last seven games. Commanders edge rusher Chase Young is making his season debut this week after missing Washington’s first 14 games while recovering from a torn ACL. It’s possible that Kittle runs fewer routes than usual and is asked to help block the Commanders’ dangerous edge-rushing duo of Young and Montez Sweat.
Jaylen Waddle OVER 63.5 receiving yards
Waddle has cleared this number in 10-of-14 games and is coming off a 114-yard game against the Bills. Waddle leads the league in yards per catch at 18.0, and he’s averaging an absurdly efficient 11.1 yards per target, so he might not need many targets to clear this modest number.
Whether you’re new to sports betting or a betting pro, our Sports Betting Strategy and Advice page is for you. You can get started with our 101 section — including 10 Sports Betting Tips for Beginners — or head to more advanced strategies — like Key Numbers When Betting Against the Spread — to learn more.
View 5-star bets and historical prop performance by player with our Prop Bet Analyzer >>
Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google Podcasts | Stitcher | RadioPublic | Breaker | Castbox | Pocket Casts