NFL Week 16 Preview: Picks & Predictions (Patriots vs. Bills)
The Bills are two games back of the Chiefs for the No. 1 seed in the AFC but they own the tie-breaker. This is the first of two games between the Bills and Patriots before the season ends. Neither matters for the Patriots, who have been eliminated from playoff contention. They still want to get Drake Maye meaningful reps, though, and that can be done against this injured defense.
The Patriots lost 30-17 to the Cardinals last week. It was not a close game. The Patriots trailed 23-3 in the fourth quarter before scoring twice in the final eight minutes. Defensive tackle Christian Barmore (not injury-related) missed practice on Thursday. Cornerback Marcus Jones (hip) also missed practice on Thursday.
The Bills got back on track last week with a 48-42 victory over the Lions. Josh Allen had another spectacular game with 362 passing yards, two touchdowns, zero interceptions and two scores on the ground. Tackle Dion Dawkins (personal) was the only player to miss practice on Thursday. Cornerback Rasul Douglas (knee) was limited, along with safeties Damar Hamlin (rib) and Taylor Rapp (neck). Linebacker Matt Milano (biceps/groin) was a limited participant on Thursday.
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Bills vs. Patriots Betting Preview
(Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook)
Can Anyone Stop Josh Allen?
Josh Allen is the favorite to win the NFL MVP award. He has 25 passing touchdowns and only five interceptions. He also has 11 rushing touchdowns and has not lost a fumble. He has made the most of his offense, which does not have a big weapon like other teams. He may be unstoppable this season, but everyone is human and can make mistakes.
Christian Gonzalez is the best player for the Patriots. He continuously holds the best receiver in check for opposing teams. He likely shadows Amari Cooper this week, but the Bills have several guys that can create problems. Khalil Shakir leads the team with 71 receptions for 774 yards. He has been Allen's favorite target this season and should be utilized a lot on Sunday.
Can Drake Maye Lead the Patriots to Victory?
The Bills have allowed 40+ points in two consecutive games, which is a problem. They are having to put up large amounts of points to win games. They are riddled with injuries, causing problems. The difference in this matchup will be sacks. The Patriots allow 3.2 sacks per game, while the Bills allow 0.9, the fewest in the league. Both teams rank in the bottom 10 of sacks per game. Both quarterbacks should be able to get out of the pocket and move around if necessary.
Drake Maye, like Allen, is mobile and a tough runner. He has 359 rushing yards in 10 games this season, with an average of 8.5 yards per attempt. He also has two rushing touchdowns, including one last week. The Patriots' offense should be able to score more than usual this week but must make a few plays on defense to stay within two touchdowns.
Pick: Patriots +14.5 (-120)