NFL Week 16 Saturday First & Anytime TD Picks (2025)
The NFL is moving to Saturday for the next three weeks as the season winds down and there are no bye weeks left. There are two games on Saturday starting at 5 p.m. Eastern. The Philadelphia Eagles travel to Landover, Maryland, to face the Washington Commanders in the first matchup. The Green Bay Packers make their way south to Soldier Field in Chicago to take on the Bears at 8:20 p.m. Eastern. Both games are set to air on Fox and have playoff implications.
There are several NFL TD scorer picks to analyze for these two Saturday matchups. Let's dive into the best first touchdown and anytime touchdown bets for these Saturday showdowns.
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Week 16 NFL Saturday TD Scorer Picks
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Philadelphia Eagles @ Washington Commanders
First Touchdown Scorer Pick: DeVonta Smith (+950)
DeVonta Smith had a down week against the Raiders, but it was mainly due to the game script. The Eagles won 31-0, and it was never really close. They did not have to throw the ball much, and most of the targets went to Dallas Goedert. I expect Smith to play a pivotal role against Washington this week.
The Commanders' secondary is not good, and they are not great against slot receivers. They allowed five receptions, 54 yards, and one touchdown to Wan'Dale Robinson last week. Smith averages 6.9 targets per week and is third on the team with nine red zone targets. He offers solid value to score first and has the matchup to turn in a good outing.
Anytime Touchdown Scorer Pick: Jalen Hurts (+105)
This pick is certainly not crazy, but it is a clever play this week. Hurts has eight rushing touchdowns on the season, but has not scored one since Week 12. All eight of his touchdowns have come inside the red zone, where he has 26 rushing attempts. The books are starting to give him better odds of scoring a rushing touchdown after three consecutive games without one. The value is good enough to bet this week, especially at odds higher than even.
Green Bay Packers @ Chicago Bears
First Touchdown Scorer Pick: Josh Jacobs (+600)
Josh Jacobs is dealing with a knee injury, but has played through it. He has not played at full health the last couple of weeks, and has still produced. He played 55% of snaps last week and only logged 12 carries, but finished with a rushing and receiving touchdown. Jacobs also has only three games this season in which he has not scored a touchdown.
The Packers lost Micah Parsons last week, and the simple answer to filling the void is by controlling the ball. The Bears' offense is one of the best in the league, and the best way to stop them is to keep them off the field. The Packers should attempt to establish the run early, and that gives Jacobs a good opportunity to score the first touchdown.
Anytime Touchdown Scorer Pick: Matthew Golden (+425)
Matthew Golden has not found the end zone in his rookie season, but this is a good opportunity. The Packers are dealing with a few injuries at wide receiver, and Golden is now healthy after dealing with a wrist injury. He made a few big plays in the game last week after Christian Watson left with a chest/shoulder injury. Dontayvion Wicks is also dealing with an ankle injury. Both were limited in practice on Wednesday and Thursday, which gives them a chance to play this week. Golden may not have a touchdown this season, but offers good value this week to score for the first time.