NFL Week 16: Top Against the Spread, Over/Under and Moneyline Bets
With the NFL playoffs looming, betting is about to get a lot more exciting. Fortunately for us, there are no teams so far ahead that they can sit their starters in Week 16, so we don’t have to worry about any kind of weirdness. In fact, it seems like there won’t be many teams like that next week either. The Ravens can secure a playoff bye with a win this week, but they’ll probably be the only ones. The Patriots can secure a bye if they win and the Chiefs lose, but that seems unlikely. With four 11-3 teams in the AFC, Seattle, New Orleans, Green Bay and San Francisco should all be jockeying for position through Week 17.
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Top Against the Spread Bets
| Rank | Game | Bet | Expert Voting | Past Performance | Bet Rating |
| 1 | KC@CHI | KC -3.5 | 75% | 58% | 70 |
| 2 | BUF@NE | BUF +6.5 | 74% | 57% | 69 |
| 3 | ARI@SEA | ARI +9.5 | 72% | 60% | 69 |
Kansas City -3.5 at Chicago
- Expert voting: 75%. Kansas City has one of the best offenses in the league, and Chicago has Mitch Trubisky. It’s not surprise that so many experts think this line is too close.
- Past performance ratings: 67% for Kansas City, 59% for facing Chicago, for a combined 58%.
- Bet rating: 70.
Buffalo +6.5 at New England
- Expert voting: 74%.
- Past performance ratings: 57% both for Buffalo and for facing New England.
- Bet rating: 69.
Arizona +9.5 at Seattle
- Expert voting: 72%.
- Past performance ratings: 55% for Arizona, 65% for facing Seattle, for a combined 60%.
- Bet rating: 69.
Top Over/Under Bets
| Rank | Game | Bet | Expert Voting | Past Performance | Bet Rating |
| 1 | CAR@IND | Under 46.5 | 83% | 42% | 71 |
| 2 | NO@TEN | Under 51 | 75% | 48% | 67 |
| 3 | JAC@ATL | Over 45.5 | 74% | 48% | 66 |
Carolina at Indianapolis: Under 46
- Expert voting: 83%. This is most agreement we have this week for any O/U or ATS bet.
- Past performance ratings: 43% for Indianapolis, 40% for Carolina, for a combined 43%.
- Bet rating: 71.
New Orleans at Tennessee: Under 51
- Expert voting: 75%.
- Past performance ratings: 45% for New Orleans, 52% for Tennessee, for a combined 48%.
- Bet rating: 67.
Jacksonville at Atlanta: Over 45.5
- Expert voting: 74%.
- Past performance ratings: 50% for Atlanta, 45% for Jacksonville, for a combined 48%.
- Bet rating: 66.
Top Moneyline Bets
| Rank | Game | Bet | Expert Voting | Past Performance | Bet Rating |
| 1 | JAC@ATL | ATL -340 | 93% | 71% | 87 |
| 2 | KC@CHI | KC -198 | 85% | 63% | 79 |
| 3 | CIN@MIA | MIA -125 | 80% | 47% | 71 |
| 4 | NYG@WAS | NYG +140 | 71% | 45% | 64 |
Atlanta -340 vs Jacksonville
- Expert voting: 93%.
- Past performance ratings: 86% for Atlanta, 57% for facing Jacksonville, for a combined 71%.
- Bet rating: 87. It’s not often that favorites this heavy make the cut for this article, because the low return if you win means you need very high chances of winning to have a positive expected return. The expert voting for this game is almost unanimous – if 93% of experts agree, a line of -340 isn’t actually that bad.
Kansas City -198 at Chicago
- Expert voting 85%.
- Past performance ratings: 59% for Kansas City, 68% for facing Chicago, for a combined 63%.
- Bet rating: 79.
Miami – 125 vs Cincinnati
- Expert voting: 80%.
- Past performance ratings: 56% for Miami, 38% for facing Cincinnati, for a combined 47%.
- Bet rating: 71
NY Giants +140 at Washington
- Expert voting: 71%.
- Past performance ratings: 56% for New York, 34% for facing Washington, for a combined 45%.
- Bet rating: 64. This was our only moneyline underdog to make the cut.
Last Week’s Results
Week 15 was our worst of the year so far.
- We were 1-2 against the spread, hitting NE -10, but missing LAR +3 and DEN +11.5. That brings us to 16-8 (67%) on the season.
- We were winless with totals for the first time this year, missing on all four of NO@IND Over 45, CAR@SEA Under 48.5, WAS@PHI Under 47.5 and BAL@NYJ Under 44.5. That makes use 8-14 (36%) on the season.
- We were 2-1 on moneyline bets, winning GB -205 and SEA -230, but losing LAR +135 for a net loss of 0.1 units. We are down 5.0 units on 24 bet this season.
Jacob Herlin is a Senior Data Analyst for FantasyPros. For more from Jacob, follow him @jacoblawherlin.