NFL Week 17 Anytime TD Scorer Picks & Predictions (2024)
Last week was another profitable one on the Anytime Touchdown (ATD) and First Touchdown (FTD) fronts. It was my third straight winning week and sixth in the last seven. Let’s keep the good vibes going with this week’s picks. Below are my favorite anytime touchdown and first touchdown plays for all 11 games on the remaining Week 17 slate, excluding the primetime games on Sunday and Monday.
As a reminder, I am tracking these using bet sizes of 0.4 units on anytime touchdown picks and 0.1 units on first touchdown picks. Whether you play one or all, use your discretion and adjust as you see fit. We compare anytime touchdown stats to prop bet odds and projections to help identify this week’s best bets.
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Best NFL Week 17 Anytime TD Scorer Prop Bets
All wagers are 0.5 units
NFL Anytime Touchdown Scorer Prop Bets
Who will score a touchdown in this week’s NFL Games? The Anytime TD market covers any player who carries or receives the ball into the end zone, not the quarterback who passes the ball. We compare anytime touchdown stats to prop bet odds and projections to help identify today’s best bets. View Anytime Touchdown odds across sportsbooks here.
Los Angeles Chargers at New England Patriots
- Anytime TD Odds: +170 at FanDuel Sportsbook
- First TD Odds: +750 at FanDuel Sportsbook
The New England Patriots enter their Week 17 matchup with the Los Angeles Chargers ranking 31st in defensive DVOA (defense-adjusted value over average) versus the pass and 28th against the run. Los Angeles should have advantages in most areas of the field. Except on the outside against New England’s Christian Gonzalez. Gonzalez ranks ninth in Pro Football Focus’ (PFF) coverage grade and the Patriots play man coverage at the second-highest rate in the NFL.
While Gonzalez lines up in the slot just 18% of the time, Chargers rookie wideout Ladd McConkey lines up inside on 72% of the snaps. McConkey has averaged 3.10 yards per route man versus man coverage this season. That is 10th-highest among 67 players with at least 10 targets against man coverage. I expect McConkey to take advantage of this matchup and score a touchdown in Week 17.
Denver Broncos at Cincinnati Bengals
- Anytime TD Odds: +155 at Fanatics
- First TD Odds: +900 at Fanatics
Tee Higgins cashed our anytime touchdown and first touchdown bets last week, and I like his chances to do so again this week. Higgins is undervalued because of teammate Ja’Marr Chase’s incredible season. Higgins is certainly no slouch, though. He has scored seven times in 10 games this season.
Higgins also has slightly better numbers than Chase this year versus man coverage. That is important because the Denver Broncos play man at the eighth-highest rate in the league. They also figure to deploy top cornerback Patrick Surtain on Chase more than Higgins. That would free Higgins to operate against lesser cornerbacks such as Ja’Quan McMillian and Riley Moss. This is an excellent matchup for Higgins, and the price is right for me to pull the trigger on him here.
Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles Rams
- Anytime TD Odds: +100 at Fanatics
- First TD Odds: +800 at Fanatics
Arizona and the Los Angeles Rams are right around league average defensively in several key metrics, including DVOA. They are also above average on the offensive side of the ball. But while Rams running back Kyren Williams is -240 or worse to score a touchdown this week, James Conner is even money to find the end zone on Saturday night.
That feels a bit off, considering he was -175 to score last week and produced a season-high 166 scrimmage yards while scoring his ninth touchdown. The skepticism may be based on Conner entering this game with a knee injury. The latest reports suggest Conner will suit up on Saturday night. If he does not play, the bets void. No harm, no foul. But if Conner is active, I believe he has a better than 50/50 chance of scoring a touchdown.
Dallas Cowboys at Philadelphia Eagles
- Anytime TD Odds: +160 at FanDuel Sportsbook
- First TD Odds: +750 at BetMGM
It was nice having reasonably-priced Saquon Barkley anytime touchdown and first touchdown odds while it lasted. We cashed on both last week, as Barkley scored two first-quarter touchdowns. But the sportsbooks have raised his price above the -200 range again, so I am pivoting to A.J. Brown. I love the value here and think the books are incorrectly pricing Brown due to the absence of Jalen Hurts.
To me, Hurts being out could help Brown. Kenny Pickett targeted Brown on over 62% of his dropbacks in relief of Hurts last week. Half of that number usually represents a massive target share. Pickett is also not a threat to run the ball near the goal line. So, while I will concede Barkley is more likely to score than Brown, I prefer the value with the Eagles wide receiver in this game.
New York Jets at Buffalo Bills
- Anytime TD Odds: +170 at DraftKings Sportsbook
- First TD Odds: +1400 at DraftKings Sportsbook
I shy away from teams that are massive underdogs regarding anytime touchdown and first touchdown selections. And based on New York’s issues on run defense, I would certainly not fault anyone for picking either James Cook (-127 for anytime touchdown at BetRivers) or Josh Allen (-115 at DraftKings Sportsbook). However, this is another situation where I see some hidden value.
Davante Adams has scored in four straight games. He also faces a Buffalo pass funnel defense. They have given up 25 passing touchdowns this year, only allowing 12 on the ground. Perhaps most importantly, Jets quarterback Aaron Rodgers enters Week 17 sitting on 499 career touchdown passes. Is there any doubt he wants Adams to be on the receiving end of No. 500? It feels like we are a coin toss and a solid drive away from cashing a +1400 ticket.
Las Vegas Raiders at New Orleans Saints
- Anytime TD Odds: +175 at Hard Rock Bet
- First TD Odds: +800 at BetMGM
This game features two bad offenses. Every player in this game is plus-money for an anytime touchdown and with good reason. Both offenses are in the bottom 10 in DVOA and play backups at the most relevant skill positions. The good news is that both defenses are also below average. I am going with Saints running Kendre Miller to score this week.
Miller was rendered a nonfactor last week as New Orleans was shut out. However, they fell behind early and were forced to eschew the run. That should not be the case against an inept Las Vegas offense. If Miller gets enough opportunities, he can cash in for us. Opposing running backs have averaged 129 scrimmage yards per game while scoring 14 total touchdowns against the Raiders this season. If you do not have access to Hard Rock Bet, Caesars Sportsbook has Miller at +150 for an anytime touchdown.
Indianapolis Colts at New York Giants
- Anytime TD Odds: -155 at Fanatics
- First TD Odds: +400 at BetMGM
It hurts me to go against Colts quarterback Anthony Richardson after he has cashed two weeks in a row, including a first touchdown hit two weeks ago. However, considering the matchup and eruption last week, I was pleasantly surprised to see reasonable pricing for Jonathan Taylor. Taylor ran for 218 yards and three touchdowns versus the Tennessee Titans.
The New York Giants have allowed the fourth-most rushing yards and third-most scrimmage yards to opposing running backs this year. Indianapolis is favored by a touchdown, and there is potential rain in the forecast. The Colts do not want Richardson throwing the ball, and he probably will not need to in this matchup. Taylor should have ample opportunity to score in this game, so I do not mind paying the extra juice in this spot.
Carolina Panthers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
- Anytime TD Odds: -138 at Bet365
- First TD Odds: +475 at Fanatics
Bucky Irving has taken over as Tampa Bay’s primary running back down the stretch and has delivered in a big way. If you exclude the Week 14 game in which he left early due to injury, Irving has logged at least 16 touches in five straight games. He has scored in four of the five while averaging 125.8 yards from scrimmage per game. One of those games occurred four weeks ago when Irving totaled 185 yards and a touchdown versus the Carolina Panthers.
Carolina is Irving’s Week 17 opponent, and they have been the most generous team in the NFL to opposing running backs. No team has given up more scrimmage yards to opposing backs than Carolina has this season. They have also allowed 19 touchdowns to the position. Irving should continue his dominant late-season run with at least one touchdown in this matchup.
Tennessee Titans at Jacksonville Jaguars
- Anytime TD Odds: +195 at FanDuel Sportsbook
- First TD Odds: +900 at FanDuel Sportsbook
After serving up a trio of touchdowns to Jonathan Taylor last week, the Tennessee Titans have now allowed more touchdowns to opposing running backs than any team in the NFL. That puts both Travis Etienne Jr. and Tank Bigsby on the anytime touchdown and first touchdown radar for me. I went with Etienne because he is a more significant threat as a receiver out of the backfield.
Etienne has caught 35 passes this season, including 16 in his last five games. Bigsby has just six catches on the year. The Titans rank 31st in the league in DVOA versus running backs in the passing game. Seven of the 21 touchdowns they have allowed to opposing running backs this season have come via the pass. Based on those trends, Etienne is my preferred pick here.
Miami Dolphins at Cleveland Browns
- Anytime TD Odds: +145 at BetRivers
- First TD Odds: +675 at Caesars Sportsbook
As long as Dorian Thompson-Robinson leads the Cleveland offense, I cannot back any of the Browns with my anytime touchdown and first touchdown dollars. But while De’Von Achane is the team’s runaway leader in touchdowns, more than half have come as a receiver. Cleveland is one of five NFL teams that have yet to allow a receiving touchdown to a running back this year. They also rank fifth in the NFL in DVOA versus opposing tight ends.
Jonnu Smith has beaten tough matchups, but I will roll with Tyreek Hill. The Browns rank 31st in the league in DVOA versus opposing No. 1 wide receivers. Hill has caught a touchdown in five of his last seven games. He is also Tua Tagovailoa’s top target versus man coverage, which Cleveland runs at the second-highest clip in the NFL. I expect Hill to find the end zone this week.
Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings
- Anytime TD Odds: +190 at FanDuel Sportsbook
- First TD Odds: +1200 at Bet365
There is no shortage of candidates to score a touchdown in Sunday’s showdown between NFC North foes. Both teams rank in the top 10 in scoring offense, combining for 60 points in their last meeting. There may be safer picks, but I like Jayden Reed based on his expected usage in this matchup. Minnesota plays zone coverage at the fourth-highest rate in the league.
Reed is a different player when playing against man coverage compared to zone. Per PFF, Reed has nine receptions and one touchdown in 106 routes run versus man coverage. He has 43 catches, including five touchdowns in 240 routes run against zone. Reed has had 13 red-zone opportunities this season. That is tied for 22nd among wide receivers. I like the matchup and the price for Jayden Reed to score this week.
Make sure to check out our other best bets for Saturday: