NFL Week 17 Picks Against the Spread (2018)

Heading into the final week of the regular season, there are still playoff spots up for grabs and seeds ready to be switched. Meanwhile, some teams may be looking to tank, playing more for tomorrow than today. Either way, there will be plenty of exciting football to be had. Let’s make our NFL Week 17 picks against the spread for all 16 matchups.

Sunday, Early Games

Jets at Patriots (-13.5)
Weather: 31 degrees, no chance of snow

The Patriots sit at second in the AFC despite having a “down” year. In fact, they are still in the running for the top seed, if New England gets the win and both the Chiefs and Chargers lose. At home against the Jets, I expect New England to take care of business on Sunday. This is a statement game. Belichick and Brady will look to put on a show, then get to work during their bye week.

Pick: Patriots -13.5 (Medium Confidence), NYJ 14 — NE 31

Lions at Packers (-8)
Weather: 31 degrees, no chance of rain

Many thought this game would have playoff implications, but here we are. The Lions are a dumpster fire and the Packers are just a step above that. However, the Pack have come to play in Lambeau, where they have just one loss on the season. Playing a December game at Lambeau is never fun for road teams, and I expect that to continue here. Green Bay may struggle with Golladay, but there isn’t much else to fear on Detroit’s squad.

Pick: Packers -8 (Medium Confidence), DET 20 — GB 30

Falcons at Buccaneers (+1)
Weather: 79 degrees, no chance of rain

Tampa has struggled, losing their past three games. Dirk Koetter is likely gone, and quarterback Jameis Winston also has a questionable future as a Buc. Atlanta has had an injury-riddled season, but have put together two winning efforts in a row. I think the momentum continues for each team, with the Falcons closing the season with a win.

Pick: Falcons -1 (Medium Confidence), ATL 28 — TB 24

Jaguars at Texans (-6.5)
Weather: Dome

Blake Bortles is back at quarterback for the Jaguars, and the Texans are fighting for the second seed. Houston is really limping into this postseason, and I think the struggles continue here. Bortles has been known to play well in December, and I’m sure he would love to make a statement to those who benched him. They may not win outright, but I don’t think the Texans cover the spread.

Pick: Jaguars +6.5 (Medium Confidence), JAC 20 — HOU 21

Cowboys at Giants (-6)
Weather: 37 degrees, no chance of rain

The Cowboys are locked into the fourth seed, so we can expect them to rest their playmakers. The Giants are playing for pride. Without the few playmakers they have, Dallas will really struggle to contain Saquon Barkley, Sterling Shepard, and Evan Engram. This is certainly a low confidence pick when we’re betting on the Giants, but that’s the pick here, and the spread may grow even more.

Pick: (Medium Confidence), DAL 17 — NYG 24

Dolphins at Bills (-3.5)
Weather: 34 degrees, 2% chance of snow

This is a meaningless divisional game, and don’t expect much scoring either. I expect the Bills to bottle up the run pretty well, forcing Ryan Tannehill to beat them. Meanwhile, I don’t think the Dolphins can stop the rushing attack for the Bills. I’ll take the home team in a low-scoring outing.

Pick: Bills -3.5 (Low Confidence), MIA 17 — BUF 21

Panthers at Saints (-8)
Weather: Dome

Here’s another meaningless game, since the Panthers have been mathematically eliminated, while the Saints have clinched the top seed. We can expect the Saints to rest numerous starters, including Drew Brees, Alvin Kamara and their offensive linemen. The Panthers will be down to their third-string quarterback, Kyle Allen. While this game is relatively meaningless, the Panthers could avoid double-digit losses by stealing a game here, which I think they could do. I’ll take Carolina given the high spread.

Pick: Panthers +8 (Medium Confidence), CAR 23 — NO 24

Sunday, Late Games

Bears at Vikings (-4.5)
Weather: Dome

On the opposite end of the spectrum, this divisional matchup features teams who both have something to play for. The Bears have clinched the division, but are still fighting for the two seed.

The Vikings are currently the last team in, and they control their own destiny. A win would mean a playoff berth, while a loss would open the door for the Eagles. The Vikings offense has looked better after the change of leadership. This has been due to the commitment to the run against weaker defenses. Continuing this mentality could mean trouble against the Bears.

This is one of those games the Vikings paid Kirk Cousins for, but it’s also the pressure-packed game where he folds. I’ll take the “upset.”

Pick: Bears +4.5 (Medium Confidence), CHI 20 — MIN 17

Browns at Ravens (-6.5)
Weather: 42 degrees, 1% chance of rain

Much like the Vikings, the Ravens control their own destiny. A win over the Browns would mean the Ravens win the AFC North. However, a loss would open the door for the Steelers take the division. The Browns have been on a roll, winning five of their past six, but playing in Baltimore is a completely different animal. The Ravens defense gets up for games in Baltimore, bringing plenty of pressure while suffocating the pass offense.

The Browns have been playing better, but they are still just middle of the road in run defense. The Lamar Jackson-led offense is running all over people, and I think it happens again. Getting down early in Baltimore is a death sentence.

Pick: Ravens -6.5 (Low Confidence), CLE 16 — BAL 26

Cardinals at Seahawks (-13.5)
Weather: 41 degrees, 10% chance of rain

The Seahawks have lived up to the hype at home this season, getting wins against the Cowboys, Packers, Vikings, and Chiefs. Arizona should be no match for Seattle since they are still fighting for playoff position. The Seahawks would clinch the fifth seed with a win, getting the play the Cowboys instead of the Bears/Rams. Giving up 4.8 yards per rush, the Cardinals defense will be on the field for the majority of the game.

Pick: Seahawks -13.5 (Medium Confidence), ARI 13 — SEA 27

Chargers at Broncos (+6.5)
Weather: 39 degrees, no chance of rain

The Chargers have been given a few opportunities to take the top spot in the AFC, but they have been unable to take advantage. This is their last chance, but the Chargers would still overtake the top seed with a win and a Chiefs loss. The Broncos secondary is beat up and they are missing their best two offensive weapons this season. I fully expect Philip Rivers to exploit the defensive holes and get a relatively easy win.

Pick: Chargers -6.5 (Medium Confidence), LAC 27 — DEN 14

49ers at Rams (-10)
Weather: 62 degrees, no chance of rain

With or without Todd Gurley, the Rams proved the running game can still be effective. Needing a win to keep hold of the second seed, expect the Rams to not overlook the Niners. I am again expecting a relatively easy win from the much better team.

Pick: Rams -10 (Medium Confidence), SF 17 — LAR 33

Eagles at Redskins (+6.5)
Weather: 43 degrees, 1% chance of rain

Nick Foles is looking like he may lead the Eagles into the postseason again. For this to happen, they would need a win in Washington and the Vikings to lose against the Bears. Philly’s offense has been more consistent and looks more controlled under Foles, while the Redskins have been trending in the wrong direction ever since the Alex Smith injury. They shockingly released safety Swearinger this week, softening that secondary up for the Eagles.

Pick: Eagles -6.5 (Medium Confidence), PHI 24 — WAS 17

Raiders at Chiefs (-13.5)
Weather: 40 degrees, 3% chance of rain

The Raiders won their final game in Oakland during Christmas Eve, while the Chiefs lost in Seattle, failing to clinch the top seed. The Chiefs are now in the position where they need to win so they don’t lose the top seed to the Chargers or Patriots. At home against a less talented opponent, look for Mahomes to make one final statement as to why he should be this season’s MVP.

Pick: Chiefs -13.5 (Medium Confidence), OAK 17 — KC 34

Bengals at Steelers (-14.5)
Weather: 42 degrees, 1% chance of rain

The Steelers need a win to just stay alive for a playoff spot. At home against the Bengals, they’ll get the win. I think they do it in dominant fashion to make a statement after last week’s loss. They have covered the spread in four out of the past five matchups with the Bengals, and the will do it again to keep their playoff hopes alive.

Pick: Steelers -14.5 (Low Confidence), CIN 13 — PIT 34

Sunday Night Football

Colts at Titans (+3.5)
Weather: 50 degrees, 44% chance of rain

Win and get in. That’s the motto for this Sunday night game. The Colts have been hot during the second half of the season, while the Titans have stumbled, but remained solid at home. The question for this game is if Marcus Mariota will play and how healthy will he be if he does. The Colts have covered the spread in seven of these team’s past 10 matchups, and I think they do it again here.

Pick: Colts -3.5 (Medium Confidence), IND 27 — TEN 17

Zach Brunner is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Zach, check out his archive and follow him @FantasyFlurry.