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NFL Week 17 Picks & Predictions: 49ers vs. Commanders (2023)

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Let’s dive into NFL matchups for Week 17. Here are my top picks and player prop bet picks for NFL Week 17 Sunday football. Below we dive into 49ers vs. Commanders.

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NFL Sunday Betting Primer Week 17: 49ers vs. Commanders

Washington Commanders vs. San Francisco 49ers (-13.5)

Sides:

  • The road team has covered the spread in each of the 49ers’ last eight games.
  • The Commanders have lost each of their last six games.
  • Still, Washington has covered as an underdog in 59% of their games.
  • The 49ers have covered as favorites in 57% of their games.

Game Total:

  • Each of the Commanders’ last four home games has gone OVER the total points line.
  • These teams average 49 points scored.
  • They have also combined for an 18-12 record toward the over
  • 5 of the Commanders’ last 6 games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • The one “under” was a 48-point game that narrowly hit the under.
  • If Washington doesn’t allow 20 points on defense, they are a perfect 4-0 toward the under.
  • When they allow 20 points on defense – 9-2 toward the OVER.
  • What are the 49ers’ odds of scoring over 19.5 points? You can’t even find odds that low it’s such a lock.
  • Their implied odds to score 21 points? -700. Aka an implied probability of 87.5%.
  • The 49ers have scored at least 27 points in 11 of their 15 games played this season.

Overall:

The 49ers offense is a Death Star, and there’s no doubt they will bounce back offensively against the worst defense in the NFL. Coming off a prime-time embarrassing loss, they might not ever stop scoring points. Still, I am a firm believer in the process behind backing double-digit home dogs. Jacoby Brissett being under center makes it big difference in my estimation for a backdoor cover. Brissett has rallied the Commanders in back-to-back weeks, so I think he can keep things interesting from a point-spread perspective. Still, my best bet is just on the “over” in this game.

The 49ers will score 30-plus points easily, and I think the Commanders can post at least 20 with Brissett taking the reins. The 49ers defense has allowed an average of 30-plus points in back-to-back games.

Props:

This George Kittle receptions prop at 3.5 has been EZ money this season. We bet it last week on flying colors. Rinse and repeat with it again listed a plus odds. Kittle has 3.5 or more receptions in just three games played this season alongside a healthy Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk.

The 49ers have allowed the 2nd-most completions this season to QBs. The last 4 QBs the 49ers have faced have completed 22-plus passes.

My Picks

  • Over 49.5
  • Commanders +13

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