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NFL Week 17 Picks & Predictions: Chargers vs. Broncos (2023)

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Let’s dive into NFL matchups for Week 17. Here are my top picks and player prop bet picks for NFL Week 17 Sunday football. Below we dive into Chargers vs. Broncos.

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NFL Sunday Betting Primer Week 17: Chargers vs. Broncos

Denver Broncos vs. Los Angeles Chargers (-5.5)

Sides:

  • LAC has lost the last 10 games as +7-point dogs.
  • 1-6 ATS as underdogs over their last seven games played.
  • The Chargers have also failed to cover the spread in five of their last 7 games.
  • 1-6 straight up as underdogs.
  • The Broncos have failed to cover the spread in each of their last 11 games as favorites against AFC West opponents.
  • The Broncos have won nine of their last 10 home games against the Chargers.
  • The Broncos have won four of their last five home games. 3-2 ATS
  • The Broncos have scored first in each of their last five home games.

Total:

  • The Chargers showed the last 2 weeks that they won’t stop “trying” to score points. 2-0 toward the over in their last two games.
  • Still, 10 of the last 13 games have gone UNDER the total points line for Los Angeles
  • Teams average 44 points scored in Denver this season. 4-4 O/U record.
  • Both teams enter this game coming off two straight overs.
  • 8 of the Broncos’ last 11 games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • The Broncos have totaled fewer than 200 passing yards in 7 of their last 11 games played.
  • At home in their last 5 games:  2-2-1 toward the under.

Overall

This is a classic dead cat bounce for a team to rally after the Broncos decided to “fire” Russell Wilson as their starting quarterback.

Teams are 1-2 straight up and 3-0 ATS after firing their head coach this season (Raiders, Panthers, Chargers). In terms of big coordinators being fired, the teams are also 2-0 ATS after firings (Bills, Steelers).

Jarrett Stidham will draw the start, and there’s an argument to be made that he better fits the offensive system that Sean Payton wants to deploy. Stidham was highly sought after in free agency by the Broncos signing a two-year deal worth $10 million this offseason. Like last season, he has been named the starter for the final two games.

In his first start last season, he led the Raiders to a 34-37 OT home loss against the 49ers as 9.5-point home underdogs. Finished 1-1 ATS in his two starts.

We have seen backup QBs all year long perform extremely well ATS with the market incorrectly valuing their impact on the first few games. Zero expectations have made it easy for these unproven QBs to be profitable to bet on. I’ll continue to ride that trend for the Broncos, who could see an offensive burst with Stidham against one of the league’s worst defenses. They play better at home anyway, furthering backing Denver as the team to be in this spot.

The Broncos held the Chargers to just 7 points the first time these teams faced off, while their offense scored 24 points. The teams also combined for 12 punts. Think you know where my lean is here.

Broncos -3.5 and under 37 points. Although the under doesn’t feel like there’s much value left with such a suppressed number.

Props:

Every RB not-named James Cook that has faced the Chargers has gone OVER their receptions prop and 9 the last 11 have gone over their receiving yards prop.

Great matchup for Gerald Everett this week against the Broncos’ No. 32-ranked defense versus tight ends.

Denver has allowed the most rushing yards per to RBs this season. 10 of the last 13 RBs they have faced have gone OVER their projected rushing totals.

My Picks:

  • Broncos -3.5

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