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NFL Week 17 Picks & Predictions: Packers vs. Vikings (2023)

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Let’s dive into NFL matchups for Week 17. Here are my top picks and player prop bet picks for NFL Week 17 Sunday football. Below we dive into Packers vs. Vikings.

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NFL Sunday Betting Primer Week 17: Packers vs. Vikings

Minnesota Vikings (-1) vs. Green Bay Packers

Sides:

  • The Vikings have failed to cover the spread in each of their last four games.
  • The underdogs have won 5 of the Packers’ last six games.
  • GB as an underdog is 60% ATS. 20% ATS as a favorite.
  • Minnesota is 42% ATS as a favorite. 3-3 overall.
  • The Packers are also 6-2 when they allow fewer than 23 points on defense. 5-3 ATS.
  • They have allowed 24-plus points in three straight games.
  • Green Bay is 2-5 ATS when they allow more than 23 points.
  • The Vikings have scored 23 points in Nick Mullens’ two starts.
  • The Packers have failed to cover the spread in nine of their last 10 road games against teams that held a losing record.
  • GB is 3-5 on the road this season. 1-6 ATS over their last 7 road games.

Game Total:

  • Teams average 42.5 points in Minnesota this season, 2-5 toward the over this season.
  • Each of the Packers’ last five games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • Six of the Packers’ last 7 games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • On a streak of five straight overs because of how bad the Packers defense has been.
  • The Vikings have gone over in two straight games with Nick Mullens as the starting QB.
  • These teams average 42.5 points combined this season

Overall:

The Packers are now 7-8 straight up with wins over the Bears, Saints (Derek Carr played half a game) Rams (led by Brett Rypien), Chargers team coached by Brandon Staley, the Lions, the Chiefs and the Panthers.

I’ll admit that I was swayed by some of their most recent wins. And they have mostly taken care of business against vastly inferior teams. But back-to-back eggs versus the Giants/Buccaneers leave you scratching your head. They also didn’t cover against the lowly Panthers with another poor defensive showing.

The Packers’ average scoring margin is +0.1 (14th). They are about as average as they come. Minnesota’s average scoring margin is +1.0 (13th) despite all the different QBs they have played this season.

Minnesota has consistently met and exceeded expectations of the market while playing backup QBs this season. They also play every opponent extremely close every single week. All but two of their 15 games played this season decided by 8 points or less.

We know this game will be close at least with two completely average teams facing off.

Simply put, the Vikings find ways to win, cover and keep games within striking distance.  And with WR Justin Jefferson back in full form versus a defense that is falling apart, I like backing the unproven rookie QB Jaren Hall, with the Vikings top-tier defense that has been tough all year long.

There’s a reason they are still favorites in this spot after all, playing at home. They beat Green Bay handily 24-10 in Green Bay back in Week 8. They posted a +7% pass rate over expectation in that contest. On 9 offensive drives, the Vikings punted twice. 3 TD drives, two missed field goals and a fumble. Needless to say, Kevin O’ Connell’s moved the ball at will without Justin Jefferson. So even without T.J. Hockenson and Hall making his second NFL start, I think Minnesota’s offense has no problems against Green Bay’s defense that ranks third-worst in fantasy points allowed to QBs the last four weeks.

Note that Hall was playing well in his first start – 5 passes for 78 yards on 6 attempts – before he got knocked out with an injury versus the Falcons.

Props:

The Packers are the No. 1 run-funnel defense in the league. The last six of 7 RBs the Packers have faced have gone OVER their projected rushing totals.

More than half of the QBs the Vikings have faced have finished under their passing yardage props over the last 12 games.

I usually LOVE targeting the tough rushing matchup that the Vikings defense presents. Minnesota has allowed just TWO running backs to rush for 70-plus yards against them this season. Just three RBs they have faced this season have gone for more than 55 yards.

My Picks:

  • Vikings -1

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