Navigate

NFL Week 17 Picks & Predictions: Patriots vs. Bills (2023)

by |

Let’s dive into NFL matchups for Week 17. Here are my top picks and player prop bet picks for NFL Week 17 Sunday football. Below we dive into Patriots vs. Bills.

Go premium to view top prop bets based on Cover Probability, Expected Value, & Star Rating >>

NFL Sunday Betting Primer Week 17: Patriots vs. Bills

Buffalo Bills (-13) vs. New England Patriots

Sides:

  • The Buffalo Bills are 7-4 as a favorite this season. But Buffalo has failed to cover the spread in 8 of their last 11 games. Woof.
  • They have covered just 42% of their games ATS as favorites.
  • They are 6-1 and 4-3 ATS at home.
  • The New England Patriots have the worst overall record in the AFC (29%) at 4-11.
  • 5-10 ATS this season (33%). Woof.
  • The Patriots have failed to cover the spread in each of their last four games as road underdogs against AFC East opponents.

Game Total:

  • 6 of 9 Bills’ last games have gone UNDER.
  • The Bills are 5-2 toward the under at home this season averaging under 44 points scored
  • Each of the Bills’ last five games at home has gone UNDER the total points line.
  • These teams have combined for 40 points scored on average
  • These teams have combined for a 19-11 record toward the under

Overall:

The Bills were a mess entering Week 11 – even though their offense has been a top unit across several advanced metrics – but they righted the ship against Zach Wilson-led Jets squad. They have had big wins over the Chiefs/Cowboys, but what they did versus the Chargers (almost losing outright) was a head-scratcher.

The Patriots have been one of the worst teams against the spread this season. But under Bailey Zappe they are 2-2 ATS and 2-2 straight up. And the two games they failed to cover were within 3 points of the final number. Simply put, they have played teams very close with Zappe. In fact, over the last 7 games New England has played, 6 of the final scores have been decided by 6 or fewer points. They lost to KC at home by 10 points.

Still, the Bills’ track record of stomping teams at home cannot be ignored. I’d likely avoid the sides here in a divisional matchup – given the 11.5-point spread. Although I do lean toward the Patriots +13.5 if forced to choose a side. But neither side should be backed confidently, given how badly each has been meeting expectations thus far.

The best bet here is clearly on the under on the full game total. The Patriots defense has allowed 300-plus yards once since Week 9. And their defense overall ranks 3rd in fewest explosive plays per game, while Buffalo is also above average in that metric.

The Patriots have uncharacteristically hit three straight overs. Regression is coming.

Props:

Running back James Cook has been on a heater, but has only surpassed 69.5 yards in two of his last 4 games played. Cook has just 73 or more yards in one game (vs Dallas) in his last five games.

He was held to 56 yards the last time he faced the Patriots. I think he will run into similar challenges this week.

The Patriots are the No. 1 defense versus the run, allowing 3.26 yards per carry to opposing RBs. The Patriots haven’t allowed an RB to hit 55 rushing yards since Week 10. In the last five games, they have allowed an average of fewer than 45 rushing yards to RBs.

However, the Patriots have not been as great at stopping RBs in the passing game, allowing the 7th-most receiving yards to RBs this season. Cook caught 3 balls for 46 yards the last time these teams played. Even though Cook’s receiving yards prop burned us last week, I think we go right back to it this week. Before last week, he had hit four straight games with 29-plus receiving yards.

My Picks:

Transform your betting strategy with Automated Line Tracking across all major markets and sports >>

Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google Podcasts | RadioPublic | Breaker | Castbox | Pocket