Navigate

NFL Week 17 Picks & Predictions: Raiders vs. Colts (2023)

by |

Let’s dive into NFL matchups for Week 17. Here are my top picks and player prop bet picks for NFL Week 17 Sunday football. Below we dive into Raiders vs. Colts.

Go premium to view top prop bets based on Cover Probability, Expected Value, & Star Rating >>

NFL Sunday Betting Primer Week 17: Raiders vs. Colts

Indianapolis Colts (-3) vs. Las Vegas Raiders

Sides:

  • The favorites have won each of the Colts’ last 10 games.
  • The Colts have covered the spread in five of their last six games following a loss.
  • The Colts are 100% ATS as a favorite this season. 5-0 as a favorite straight-up and ATS.
  • The Colts have won 5 of their last 7.
  • The Raiders are 3-6 as an underdog.
  • The Raiders are 6-1-1 ATS over their last 8 games.
  • Las Vegas is 2-5 overall on the road.
  • Aidan O’Connell’s first win on the road came last week – when his defense scored two TDs while he threw for 62 yards.

Game Total:

  • The Colts are 6-1 toward the over at home averaging 54 points scored
  • The Colts have been one of the few “over” machines this season, boasting an impressive 10-5 record toward the over.
  • Seven of the Colts’ last eight home games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • They are 4-1 toward the over in their last 5 games.
  • These teams average 43.5 points scored combined
  • The Colts have not been great in the red zone/third down, and their offense struggled as a result in Week 16.
  • The Raiders defense ranks 25th on third downs and in the red zone. The Colts offense should bounce back with Jonathan Taylor AND Michael Pittman Jr. at full strength.
  • Indy has pushed unthinkable anemic offenses like the Titans/Steelers to overs. Don’t think they can also push the Raiders to an over in the dome.
  • Six of the Raiders’ last 8 games have gone UNDER the total points line
  • Las Vegas’ defense has also been vastly underrated: 8th in total DVOA and 6th versus the pass in DVOA. Only one QB they have faced has thrown for 300-plus yards this season
  • 9 of the last 11 QBs that have faced the Chiefs have gone UNDER their projected passing yards total this season. Their defense is their strongest unit.

Overall:

Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me. I’ve learned the hard way that you don’t want to bet on the Colts when they close as underdogs. Twice they opened as favorites, just for the lines to flip and for them to lose outright and ATS. But as closing favorites, the Colts are a team that has continued to deliver.

The biggest mismatch is that the Raiders defense cannot stop the run. 19th in run defense DVOA. I fully expect Shane Steichen to expose the weakness of the Raiders.

This game is easy for me to back the Colts given how great ATS they have been as a favorite. The Raiders can’t win on the road, and they got bailed out last week by two defensive TDs.

As for the total, it’s another over for me. The Colts’ run defense has been questionable even with the return of Grover Stewart the last two weeks – allowing over 120 yards per game to opposing RBs.

Props:

Jakobi Meyers has gone under 4.5 receptions and 39.5 receiving yards in six of Aidan O’Connell’s 9 starts this season. He’s hit the over in his last 3 of 5 games, but the larger sample size leans toward the under on Meyers. Feel strongly about the under on his receptions prop,

My Picks

Transform your betting strategy with Automated Line Tracking across all major markets and sports >>

Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google Podcasts | RadioPublic | Breaker | Castbox | Pocket