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NFL Week 17 Picks & Predictions: Saints vs. Buccaneers (2023)

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Let’s dive into NFL matchups for Week 17. Here are my top picks and player prop bet picks for NFL Week 17 Sunday football. Below we dive into Saints vs. Buccaneers.

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NFL Sunday Betting Primer Week 17: Saints vs. Buccaneers

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-2.5) vs. New Orleans Saints

Sides:

  • The underdogs have won each of the Buccaneers’ last three games.
  • The Buccaneers are 73% ATS as an underdog, while just 50% ATS as a favorite. 3-1 straight up as a favorite.
  • The Saints are 33% ATS as an underdog.
  • New Orleans is 1-2 as an underdog, their one cover coming against the 4-11 Patriots as 1.5-point road underdogs. They lost to the Detroit Lions/Los Angeles Rams as 4.5 underdogs.
  • The Saints have COVERED four games…all season.
  • The Bucs are tied with the Lions for the best record ATS at 67% in the NFC. 10-5 ATS.
  • The Saints have failed to cover the spread in 9 of their last 11 games against NFC opponents.

Game Total:

  • The Buccaneers are 2-5 toward the under at home (35 points scored per game)
  • Tampa Bay is also 9-6 toward the under this season overall.
  • The Bucs are 4-1 toward the over in their last 5 games, with their pass defense getting exposed by opposing offenses.
  • Six of the last seven games between the Saints and Buccaneers have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • Sixteen of the Saints’ last 21 games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • These teams have each averaged 41.9 points per game this season.
  • They have also combined for a 19-11 record toward the under
  • The Buccaneers rank 5th in pass-play rate faced this season.
  • The Saints have faced the 8th-lowest pass play rate, with teams running over them in recent weeks.
  • Last four weeks: 5th in rushing yards allowed at over 100 yards per game to opposing RBs.
  • They still rank as the 5th worst run defense in explosive runs allowed at 12%
  • The Saints continue to struggle immensely in the red zone offensively, but they have improved dramatically in the last 3 weeks (86%).
  • TB’s defense ranks No.1 in the red zone at home this season.

Overall:

We don’t need to dive too deeply into this matchup to make the right picks here. The Saints have been one of the most overrated teams all season, while the Buccaneers have been one of the most UNDERRATED teams in the entire NFL. 2.5 points at home is not enough for Tampa Bay. They are on a 4-game winning streak and already beat the Saints 26-9 on the road earlier this season.

With the Buccaneers’ defense undoubtedly stifling Derek Carr and company in the red zone, the Saints won’t score enough TDs to keep this game within a field goal score.

I feel less confident backing the total, as the TB pass defense has been so bad that the Bucs’ games have been going over at a high rate. Rather just bet against Carr on the point spread, because he should be able to do some damage offensively through the air in the plus-matchup.

Props:

The Buccaneers defense is allowing the most receiving yards per game to WRs in 2023. The Bucs are also allowing the 4th-most yards and 5th-most receptions per game to tight ends.

The Buccaneers have allowed the 5th-most passing yards in the last four weeks. 4th-most yards to WRs and 3rd-most to tight ends.

Take the over on Chris Olave’s 66.5 receiving yards. Gone OVER in four of his last 5 games.

Quarterback Baker Mayfield completed 26 of 35 passes for 283 yards and 2 touchdowns, without any interceptions in Week 16. Mike Evans was the top receiver, catching 7 passes for 86 yards and scoring 2 touchdowns (8 targets), while Chris Godwin added 78 yards on 6 receptions on a team-high 11 targets.

Godwin has been on a tear the last three weeks, posting target totals of 11, 12, 11. He has 53-plus yards in all three games, which is why I love the MORE THAN on his 52.5 receiving yards number this week. The Saints are a slot funnel defense allowing more than twice the production to slot WRs than perimeter ones this season. Godwin also blew up the first times these teams played, going for 114 yards on 11 targets and 8 catches.

My Picks:

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