Navigate

NFL Week 17 Picks & Predictions: Steelers vs. Seahawks (2023)

by |

Let’s dive into NFL matchups for Week 17. Here are my top picks and player prop bet picks for NFL Week 17 Sunday football. Below we dive into Steelers vs. Seahawks.

Go premium to view top prop bets based on Cover Probability, Expected Value, & Star Rating >>

NFL Sunday Betting Primer Week 17: Steelers vs. Seahawks

Seattle Seahawks (-3.5) vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

Sides:

  • In each of the Seahawks’ last five games, their opponents have scored first.
  • The favorites have won 12 of the Seahawks’ last 13 games.
  • Seattle is 6-1 straight up as a favorite. 57% ATS as a favorite.
  • The Steelers are 5-4 as an underdog this season.
  • Usually, Pittsburgh takes care of bad teams. That has not been the case in recent weeks, and the Colts boasted a 7-6 record entering Week 15.
  • They covered against the Bengals, as Jake Browning turned back into a pumpkin.
  • The Seahawks are not a bad team, with an 8-7 record.
  • They are 4-6 ATS in their last 10 games played (3-3 over the last six games)
  • Mason Rudolph is 6-4-1 as a starter. 7-3 ATS.

Game Total:

  • Seattle is averaging 45 points per game at home, 4-3 toward the OVER.
  • But 7 of the Seahawks’ last 9 home games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • Six of the Steelers’ last seven road games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • These teams average 41 points scored
  • The Steelers boast the league’s 5th-best red zone defense.
  • Seattle has a bottom-five red-zone offense. The Steelers’ offense ranks 6th-worst in the red zone.

Overall:

Lean toward the under, and the Seahawks with the points at home. Still, I much prefer just betting the under, as this screams like a game that Seattle wins outright as a favorite, but the Steelers – as they seemingly always do – cover as an underdog. Especially at the 3.5-point number, in a game that could easily be a marginal field goal victory, like it was last week for Seattle. Both red-zone offenses will struggle to convert yards into points.

Props:

The Seahawks’ defense has allowed 68-plus rushing yards to the last 6 RBs they have faced this season.

Seattle ranks 25th in DVOA versus tight ends, allowing 55.4 receiving yards per game to the position this season.

For the Seattle offense…the Steelers are horrible versus slot WRs. 10 of the last 11 most comparable WRs to Jaxon Smith-Njigba have gone OVER their projected receiving yards against the Steelers this season.

George Pickens was a standout receiver with 4 catches for 195 yards and 2 touchdowns on 6 targets (22% target share) in Week 16. Monster performance on Christmas Eve Eve. The vast majority came on two big plays, one downfield and one YAC. Therefore, I am opting to shoot for the UNDER on Picken’s receiving yards in Week 17 playing at Seattle. The Seahawks are a tougher defense versus perimeter WRs ranking top-10 in fewest fantasy points allowed versus 4th-most against slot WRs. Last 2 weeks, Seattle has also limited opposing WRs to just 87.5 yards total (4th-fewest). A.J. Brown got just 56 yards against them. Pickens is a boom-or-bust WR who will struggle more on the road this week.

My Picks

Transform your betting strategy with Automated Line Tracking across all major markets and sports >>

Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google Podcasts | RadioPublic | Breaker | Castbox | Pocket