NFL Week 17 Player Prop Bets Odds, Picks & Predictions: Fitz’s Favorites (2022)
All good things must come to an end, and our hot streak on player props came to a screeching halt last week.
After going 22-7 from Week 12 to Week 15, we went 4-6 last week. It could have been even worse — we were 2-6 on Saturday props before hitting a couple in Sunday’s Packers-Dolphins game.
Maybe I was distracted by the holidays. Maybe I was too full of bourbon-laced eggnog. Whatever the case, I’m hell-bent on getting back on track. Let’s get to it.
But first, a quick recap of Week 16 …
The wins: Andy Dalton under 151.5 passing yards, Travis Kelce over 75.5 receiving yards, Aaron Rodgers under 251.5 passing yards, Jaylen Waddle over 63.5 receiving yards.
The losses: Josh Allen over 48.5 rushing yards, Isaiah Pacheco over 68.5 rushing yards, Joe Mixon under 60.5 rushing yards, Brian Robinson under 43.5 rushing yards, Tyler Allgeier under 56.5 rushing yards, George Kittle under 44.5 receiving yards
Here are my favorite selections for Week 17.
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NFL Week 17 Player Prop Bets Odds, Picks & Predictions: Fitz’s Favorites (2022)
Last week: 4-6
Season record: 69-46
All odds are courtesy of DraftKings, as of Thursday afternoon.
Geno Smith UNDER 1.5 touchdown passes
The under here seems like a bargain, particularly when it was -110 on DraftKings as of Thursday afternoon. This is more about the Jets’ defense than Geno himself. The Jets have allowed just six TD passes in their last 12 games and haven’t given up multiple TD passes to any quarterback over that span. The list of QBs they’ve held under two TD passes over that stretch includes Josh Allen (twice), Aaron Rodgers, Kirk Cousins, Trevor Lawrence and Jared Goff. The last quarterback to throw multiple TD passes against the Jets was Joe Burrow, who had three touchdowns against Gang Green way back in Week 3. Geno has thrown multiple TD passes in 11-of-15 starts but has thrown just one TD pass in each of his last two games.
Dalvin Cook OVER 71.5 rushing yards
Cook has topped this number in 10 of 15 games this season and is averaging 73.8 rushing yards per contest. He gets a soft Week 17 matchup against a Green Bay run defense that ranks dead last in DVOA and has given up 1,761 rushing yards to RBs — the fifth-highest total in the league. The Packers have faced the sixth-most RB carries, and they’re yielding 5.0 yards per carry to running backs for the season. When the Vikings faced the Packers in Week 1, Cook ran 20 times for 90 yards. Over his last five games, Cook has averaged 17.6 carries and has had at least 14 carries in every game over that span.
Rachaad White OVER 15.5 receiving yards
White has topped this number in four of his last five games, averaging 5.6 targets, 5.0 catches and 25.8 receiving yards a game during that stretch. Buccaneers QB Tom Brady has become a checkdown machine in his old age. He’s targeted his running backs 133 times this season, more than any other quarterback except Justin Herbert. White’s snap counts have dipped slightly in recent weeks as the Buccaneers have leaned more heavily on veteran Leonard Fournette, but White has played no fewer than 29 snaps in any Buccaneers game since the start of November. I like the talented rookie’s chances to clear this modest number.
Drake London OVER 58.5 receiving yards
There was a time earlier this season when betting the over on any Drake London yardage total above 50 yards would have been tantamount to setting money on fire. But the Falcons are making a concerted effort to get the ball to their terrific rookie receiver. Over his last three games, London has produced 95, 70 and 96 receiving yards. He’s averaged 10.7 targets and 6.7 catches over that stretch, and he’s had an outrageous 38.6% target share over his last three games. The Falcons face a porous Cardinals defense that ranks 30th in DVOA against the pass.
Justin Jefferson OVER 95.5 receiving yards
Let’s show fealty to the king. Jefferson is averaging 117.1 receiving yards this season and has topped this number in 11-of-15 games. The Vikings visit Green Bay this weekend, and in his Week 1 matchup against the Packers, Jefferson had nine catches for 184 yards and two touchdowns. Jefferson has seen double-digit targets in five consecutive games, and he’s seen no fewer than 15 targets in any of his last three games. Last week against the Dolphins, the Packers let two wide receivers go for more than 100 yards. Jaylen Waddle had 143 receiving yards against them, and Tyreek Hill had 103 receiving yards.
Terrace Marshall UNDER 35.5 receiving yards
Marshall has been making the most of a meager target count the last few weeks. He was targeted three times vs. the Lions last week and had two receptions for 55 yards. In Week 15, Marshall had three targets against the Steelers and caught all three for 51 yards. Marshall has drawn only 10 targets over Sam Darnold’s four starts at quarterback for Carolina. The Panthers have been outrageously run-heavy with Darnold at the controls, running the ball on 63.2% of their offensive snaps. Marshall is averaging an unsustainable 11.0 yards per target this season, and I’m happy to bet against that kind of small-sample efficiency. He’ll be facing a good Buccaneers pass defense that has allowed the 10th-fewest receiving yards to WRs. In a Week 7 meeting with the Bucs, Marshall caught 2-of-3 targets for 31 yards.
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