NFL Week 17 Player Prop Bets, Picks & Predictions: Fitz’s Favorites (2024)
We've already had three games this week, so we're looking at a slightly abbreviated menu of player props for the weekend. Accordingly, we're going to dial back the volume of wagers just a bit.
Among this week's bets, we're fading a quarterback who just lost 40% of his offensive line, and we're backing a big-name wide receiver who's been in a season-long slump.
Before we get to this week’s selections, a quick recap of Week 16 ...
The wins: Lamar Jackson under 228.5 passing yards, Michael Penix Jr. under 227.5 passing yards, James Conner over 80.5 rushing yards, Bucky Irving over 56.5 rushing yards, Travis Kelce under 49.5 receiving yards, Jaylen Warren over 19.5 receiving yards, D'Andre Swift over 11.5 receiving yards, Jerry Jeudy under 62.5 receiving yards
The losses: Josh Allen over 237.5 passing yards, De'Von Achane under 49.5 rushing yards,
Last week: 8-2
Season record: 85-79
All odds are courtesy of DraftKings, as of Thursday, Dec. 19.
Kyler Murray UNDER 227.5 passing yards
Murray is averaging 219.2 passing yards per game this season and has failed to clear this number in each of his last two starts. Over his last four games, Murray is averaging 6.5 yards per pass attempt.
But the real reason I like the under here is the diminished state of the Cardinals' offensive line. Arizona just placed both of its starting offensive tackles, Paris Johnson and Jonah Williams, on injured reserve. Murray probably isn't going to have much time to stand in the pocket and look for open receivers, and he might be incentivized to vacate the pocket more quickly than usual for self-preservation.
It seems unlikely that we'll see big passing numbers from Murray this week.
Jared Goff OVER 250.5 passing yards
Goff's week-to-week yardage totals were wildly unpredictable earlier this season because there were games where Lions offensive coordinator Ben Johnson decided to simply let his offense run the ball down the opponent's throat. But with Lions RB David Montgomery out for the rest of the season, Johnson might not be able to opt for a run-heavy gameplan. And with a rash of injuries on the defensive side of the ball, the Lions could find themselves in more shootouts the rest of the way.
Over his last three games, Goff has averaged 371 passing yards. He's topped this yardage total in five of his last six games. Here's betting he tops it again Monday night in San Francisco.
Breece Hall OVER 48.5 rushing yards
This hasn't been a banner season for Hall or the Jets' running game, but Sunday's game against the Bills sets up well for Hall.
The Bills have allowed the seventh-most rushing yards to running backs, giving up 4.5 yards per carry to RBs. When Hall faced the Bills in Week 6, he had 18 carries for a season-high 113 yards.
The forecast for Buffalo on Sunday calls for rain, which could lead to a run-heavy gameplan for the Jets.
Hall has cleared this number in six of his last seven games, averaging 60.9 rushing yards a game over that span.
Bijan Robinson OVER 86.5 rushing yards
Robinson has been a machine of late, rushing for at least 92 yards in five of his last six games. Robinson has had 22 or more carries in each of his last four games.
Expect another run-heavy gameplan for the Falcons this week. An earnest effort to run the ball will take pressure off rookie QB Michael Penix Jr., who'll be making his second NFL start. And Robinson will be facing a run-funnel Washington defense. Opponents have run the ball on 47.9% of their snaps against the Commanders — the fourth-highest rate in the league.
Washington has given up the fifth-most rushing yards to running backs. The Commanders allow 113.5 rushing yards per game and 4.9 yards per carry to RBs.
Courtland Sutton OVER 63.5 receiving yards
Sutton has produced 50 or fewer receiving yards in each of his last two games. But before that, he had amassed 70 or more receiving yards in six consecutive games. Since Week 8, Sutton has averaged 9.0 targets, 6.3 catches and 81.4 receiving yards per contest.
The Broncos' Week 17 matchup against the Bengals has shootout potential, with a Vegas total of 49.5 points. Cincinnati's outside cornerback duo of Cam Taylor-Britt and Josh Newton isn't exactly known for airtight pass coverage, with both players ranking in the back half of PFF's 2024 cornerback rankings.
And Sutton has at least one personal incentive over the Broncos' last two games. With 187 more receiving yards before the end of the regular season, he'll earn an additional $500,000, according to @PropTailz.
Demarcus Robinson UNDER 17.5 receiving yards
Robinson has completely disappeared from the Rans' offense. He's gone three straight games without a catch. He hasn't had more than two receptions in a game since Week 9. Robinson has fallen short of this number in four of his last five games.
Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp account for a huge percentage of Rams QB Matthew Stafford's targets, and now TE Tyler Higbee has returned from a major knee injury to further diminish the target outlook for Robinson.
The under on Robinson's receiving yardage seems like low-hanging fruit.
Tyreek Hill OVER 43.5 receiving yards
It's understandable that Hill's yardage prop has fallen to a rock-bottom number such as this. He's averaging just 55.6 receiving yards per game, the fewest since his rookie season in 2016 when he was a part-time player for the Chiefs. Hill would have to average 83 yards over his last two regular-season games to reach 1,000 yards — despite not having missed a game this season.
But Hill gets a favorable matchup this week against a Browns defense that has allowed the 10th-most receiving yards to wide receivers. Opposing WRs are averaging 15.0 yards per catch and 9.0 yards per target against Cleveland.
And the Dolphins are likely to be without WR Jaylen Waddle (knee) for a second consecutive game, which should funnel a few extra targets toward Hill.