NFL Week 17: Top Against the Spread, Over/Under and Moneyline Bets

It’s Week 17, and that means the NFL is about to get weird. The whole league is playing divisional matchups, which means there are a lot of lopsided games between playoff-bound teams and teams that have given up. Teams are liable to sit their starters, but we’re only sure that the Ravens will do that. The Bills could as well, but it’s uncertain. All of the lopsided divisional games have brought us some incredible expert voting numbers. We have four unanimous picks – three of them are money line favorites which is expected, but one of them is an over. We also avoided having any bets with bet ratings below 70 make the article, which is a first this year.

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Top Against the Spread Bets

Rank	Game	Bet	Expert Voting	Past Performance	Bet Rating
1	LAC@KC	KC -7.5	91%	53%	80
2	IND@JAC	IND +1.5	86%	43%	73
3	NO@CAR	NO -10.5	80%	54%	73

 
Kansas City -7.5 vs LA Chargers

• Expert voting: 91%. This is extremely high for an against the spread bet.
• Past performance ratings: 58% for Kansas City, 48% for facing Los Angeles, for a combined 53%.
• Bet rating: 80.

Indianapolis +1.5 at Jacksonville

• Expert voting: 86%.
• Past performance ratings: 45% for Indianapolis, 40% for facing Jacksonville, for a combined 43%.
• Bet rating: 73.

New Orleans -10.5 at Carolina

• Expert voting: 80%.
• Past performance ratings: 65% for New Orleans, 44% for facing Carolina, for a combined 54%.
• Bet rating: 73. This is an excellent week, as evidenced by the fact that all of our top 10 bets have ratings above 70 – usually, there are a few in the mid to low 60s.

Top Over-Under Bets

Rank	Game	Bet	Expert Voting	Past Performance	System Plays	Bet Rating
1	TEN@HOU	Over 45	100%	50%		86
2	IND@JAC	Over 43	80%	49%		71
3	PIT@BAL	Under 38	87%	62%	54%	72

 
Houston at Tennessee: Over 45

• Expert voting: 100%. This is one of four bets with 100% voting this week, but the other three are all money line favorites. To get this kind of agreement on an Over is almost unheard of, especially for a relatively high over like this.
• Past performance ratings: 44% for Tennessee, 56% for Houston, for a combined 50%.
• Bet rating: 86.

Indianapolis at Jacksonville: Over 43

• Expert voting: 80%.
• Past performance ratings: 44% for Jacksonville, 55% for Indianapolis, for a combined 49%.
• Bet rating: 71.

Pittsburgh at Baltimore: Under 38

• Expert voting: 87%. With Baltimore sitting their starters and Pittsburgh being horrible, this should be a very low-scoring affair.
• Past performance ratings: 55% for Baltimore, 69% for Pittsburgh, for a combined 62%.
• System Play: Divisional games hit the under at a 55% rate, with a p-value of .04. That gives an expected future success rate of 54%.
• Bet rating: 72.

Top Money Line Bets

Rank	Game	Bet	Expert Voting	Past Performance	Bet Rating
1	MIA@NE	NE -1150	100%	92%	98
2	GB@DET	GB -625	100%	73%	92
3	LAC@KC	KC -385	100%	70%	91
4	IND@JAC	IND -186	88%	41%	74

 
New England -1150 vs Miami

• Expert voting: 100%. It’s not often that such a heavy favorite makes for a good bet, but it’s also not often that we have 100% expert voting. This seems like a very sure way to make a small profit.
• Past performance ratings: 95% for New England, 89% for facing Miami, for a combined 92%.
• Bet rating: 98.

Green Bay -625 at Detroit

• Expert voting: 100%.
• Past performance ratings: 83% for Green Bay, 63% for facing Detroit, for a combined 73%.
• Bet rating: 92.

Kansas City -385 vs LA Chargers

• Expert voting: 100%.
• Past performance ratings: 70% for both Kansas City and for facing Los Angeles.
• Bet rating: 91.

Indianapolis -186 at Jacksonville

• Expert voting: 88%.
• Past performance ratings: 51% for Indianapolis, 31% for facing Jacksonville, for a combined 41%.
• Bet rating: 74.

Jacob Herlin is a Senior Data Analyst for FantasyPros. For more from Jacob, follow him @jacoblawherlin.