NFL Week 18 Picks: Sleepers & Longshot Bets (2025)
The final week of the NFL season is here, and teams enter the weekend's slate with varying motivations. The Jacksonville Jaguars can win the AFC South and even get the No. 1 seed if things break their way and they beat the Tennessee Titans. Meanwhile, the Denver Broncos can also clinch the No. 1 seed by facing a Los Angeles Chargers team that is resting all of its starters. And finally, the Minnesota Vikings will face off against the Packers and Clayton Tune after holding the Detroit Lions to 10 points on Christmas Day.
Here are the best NFL Week 18 longshot bets.
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Best NFL Week 18 Longshot Bets
(Odds Courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Jaguars -26.5 (+398)
The first time the Jaguars met the Titans, the Titans scored three points in the first quarter, then never scored again. The Titans managed just 188 yards and had two turnovers, as the Jaguars won 25-3.
The Jaguars didn't score in the final 21:45 of that contest, so it's not much of a stretch to say that they left some points on the board. Though the Jaguars are very unlikely to get the No. 1 seed, they're still playing to clinch the AFC South, so motivation won't be an issue.
The Jaguars have scored at least 34 points in three of their last four games, winning four of their last five by at least 14. This is a team that very quietly has the league's ninth-best scoring offense (27.1 points per game) and ninth-best defense (20.6 points allowed per game). Meanwhile, the Titans rank in the bottom five in both categories.
Broncos to Win With Shutout (+1200)
The Chargers have announced they'll be resting key starters against the Broncos this week, including quarterback Justin Herbert. This means Tray Lance will lead the Chargers' offense. In three appearances this season, he's yet to lead the Chargers on a touchdown-scoring drive.
The Broncos are playing for the No. 1 seed in the AFC, so this game still means plenty to them. Last year, when they were playing for something in Week 18, they defeated the Kansas City Chiefs 38-0, so this is a scenario they've found themselves in before.
The only thing that is worrying me about this bet is Cameron Dicker. While I don't expect Lance and the Chargers to score a touchdown in this game against the league's fourth-best defense, Dicker will have an extended field goal range in the altitude of Denver.
Packers vs. Vikings Under 23.5 Points (+442)
The Vikings' defense has been incredible of late, allowing just 49 total points in its last four games. The unit has held three opponents to 13 points or fewer and shut out the Washington Commanders. They also held the Lions, the league's third-ranked scoring offense, to just 10 points last week.
The Packers enter this game beat up and with nothing to play for. They're locked in as the No. 7 seed after a three-game losing streak, and though Jordan Love cleared concussion protocol, Clayton Tune will get the start at quarterback.
The first time these two teams met, the Packers won 23-6, as the Vikings managed just 145 yards and had three turnovers. While I expect a similar defensive performance from the Packers against a mediocre, at best, Vikings' offense, I don't expect Tune to master a defense that is playing like one of the league's best right now.
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Phil Wood is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Phil, check out his archive and follow him @Phil_Wood_Jr.