NFL Week 18 Player Prop Bets Odds, Picks & Predictions: Fitz’s Favorites (2022)
Most fantasy football leagues end in Week 17, leaving fantasy addicts feeling empty and rudderless in Week 18.
Fortunately, we have fantasy methadone in the form of DFS and player props.
To those of you new to this article because you’re looking for an alternative way to scratch the fantasy football itch, welcome. Glad to have you aboard.
We had a somewhat limited menu of player props as of Thursday afternoon, possibly because it’s always hard to gauge teams’ motivation levels in Week 18. One game in which motivation levels are sure to be high is Jaguars-Titans, so I’m going to be hitting that game hard. Tennessee and Jacksonville play for the AFC South title and a playoff berth on Saturday night.
We’ll get to this week’s plays in just a moment. But first, a quick recap of a disappointing Week 17.
The wins: Rachaad White over 15.5 receiving yards, Terrace Marshall under 35.5 receiving yards.
The losses: Geno Smith under 1.5 touchdown passes, Dalvin Cook over 71.5 rushing yards, Drake London over 58.5 receiving yards, Justin Jefferson over 95.5 receiving yards.
Here are my favorite selections for Week 18 …
Last week: 2-4
Season record: 71-50
All odds are courtesy of DraftKings, as of Thursday afternoon.
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NFL Week 18 Player Prop Bets Odds, Picks & Predictions: Fitz’s Favorites (2023)
Josh Dobbs UNDER 204.5 passing yards
Dobbs made his first NFL start in Week 17 and completed 20-of-39 passes for 232 yards with one touchdown and one interception. With Ryan Tannehill on injured reserve after undergoing ankle surgery, and with rookie Malik Willis having struggled badly in his stint as Tannehill’s replacement, Dobbs is getting the nod again in a game that gives the Titans a chance to end a six-game losing streak and save their season. The Jaguars’ pass defense ranks 29th in DVOA for the season, but over the last four weeks it ranks seventh. Dobbs has thrown 56 passes over three NFL seasons. He’s completed 53.6% of them and has averaged just 4.9 yards per attempt. The Titans have been one of the run-heaviest teams in the NFL this season, running the ball on 48.7% of their offensive snaps. Expect the Titans to pound away on the ground with RB Derrick Henry in an effort to minimize the burden on the inexperienced Dobbs.
Kenny Pickett UNDER 196.5 passing yards
Pickett faces a Browns defense that has been smothering opposing passing games for the last two months. Over Cleveland’s last 10 games, only four of the Browns’ opponents have thrown for more than 200 yards, and only one has thrown for more than 229 yards. Since Week 7, the Browns are No. 2 in DVOA against the pass. Not counting the Week 14 game against the Ravens in which he was knocked out early with a concussion, Pickett has averaged 208.9 passing yards per start. Look for him to finish well below that average against a run-funnel Cleveland defense that has faced the sixth-fewest pass attempts this season.
Isiah Pacheco OVER 61.5 rushing yards
Pacheco has fallen short of this number in his last two games, but he has exceeded it in six of the last eight, averaging 14.8 carries and 71.1 rushing yards per game over that stretch. He faces a Las Vegas run defense that ranks 21st in DVOA for the season and has given up an average of 160.7 rushing yards over its last three games. Rhamondre Stevenson trampled the Raiders for 172 rushing yards in Week 15, and Christian McCaffrey steamrolled them for 121 rushing yards last week.
Travis Etienne UNDER 61.5 rushing yards
Etienne has averaged 98 rushing yards over his last three games, but this is more about the Titans’ run defense that he’ll be facing than it is about Etienne himself. When Etienne faced the Titans in Week 14, he had 17 carries for 32 yards. The Titans have held 13 of their last 14 opponents under 100 rushing yards. They’ve given up only 65.4 rushing yards per game to opposing running backs this season, the second-lowest total in the league. Tennessee’s defense has been a pass funnel. It has faced a league-high 639 pass attempts and only 376 rushing attempts (third-fewest), which means the Titans’ opponents have run the ball on only 37% of their offensive snaps this season.
Derrick Henry OVER 89.5 rushing yards
As mentioned earlier, the Titans are probably going to run the ball as much as possible against the Jaguars on Saturday night to avoid putting the game in the hands of inexperienced QB Josh Dobbs. Henry has run for more than 100 yards in three straight games, and he’s averaged 95.3 rushing yards a game for the season. When Henry faced Jacksonville in Week 14, he ran 17 times for 121 yards.
Jerick McKinnon OVER 32.5 receiving yards
McKinnon has cleared this number in three of his last four games, and the one miss over that span was by 1.5 yards. Since the beginning of November, McKinnon has averaged 5.7 targets, 4.6 catches and 44.0 receiving yards a game. On Saturday night, he’ll face the Raiders, who have given up a league-high 818 receiving yards to running backs.
Evan Engram OVER 45.5 receiving yards
Engram has been a monster over the last month, averaging 6.8 catches and 88.3 receiving yards over his last four games. One of those games was an 11-catch, 162-yard, two-touchdown outburst against the Titans, whom he faces on Saturday night. Tennessee has given up 1,092 receiving yards to tight ends this season, most in the league.
Hunter Hurst UNDER 30.5 receiving yards
Hurst has played seven games this season in which Bengals WRs Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins have both been active. He’s cleared this number in two of those games and fell short of it in five. Hurst will be going up against a Ravens defense that has allowed the eight-fewest receiving yards to tight ends. Yes, it’s a revenge game for Hurst, but I expect his former team to keep him in check.
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