NFL Week 18 Preview: Picks & Predictions (Saints vs. Buccaneers)

by Travis Pulver |
Jan 05, 2025

Of the eight games being played in the early slot, the only one that appears as if it may be competitive is the Jaguars vs. Colts-and not because both teams will be playing good football. But from a bettor perspective, the Saints vs. Buccaneers game intrigues me the most. Why? Because the Saints are terrible, the Buccaneers will want to lock down the NFC South division title and their spot in the postseason.

Motivation like that makes for a dependable level of effort.

Get instant alerts when a line reaches your target via the BettingPros App >>

NFL Week 18 Early Start Game of the Week: Saints vs. Buccaneers

(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)

Details

Opening line: Buccaneers -2.5, o/u 43
Closing line: Buccaneers -14, o/u 43.5
Location: Raymond James Stadium, in Tampa, FL
Start Time: 1 p.m. ET
TV: FOX
Last Meeting: October 3, 2024- Tampa Bay Buccaneers 51 New Orleans Saints 27

Overview

Tampa Bay enters this game with its fate completely in its own hands-win the game, and they win the division and a trip to the postseason. That alone is all the motivation needed, but the team will take something else into the game as well.

They want to see Mike Evans reach 1,000 receiving yards for the 11th consecutive season, tying the record currently held by Jerry Rice.

Baker Mayfield and several other players have spoken publicly about wanting Evans to hit the mark. When you consider how well the Buccaneers are playing these days, it should be easy. Mayfield has completed almost 80 percent of his passes over the last three games for 950 total yards.

Of those yards, Evans accounted for 325.

However, while the Saints offense will be down several players, the defense should be close to full strength. The New Orleans pass defense ranks No. 27 in the league, allowing 239.9 yards per game this season.

However, while the Saints defense has allowed seven teams to throw for 275+ yards (five 300+), the last was in Week 11 vs. the Browns. Over the years, the New Orleans defense has played Evans well. He’s gone for 85+ receiving yards just three times in his career (last in 2018).

Evans only had two receptions for 34 yards vs. the Saints earlier in the season. Chris Godwin, who is not playing this time, had 11 receptions for 125 yards and two touchdowns.

Trends

With 85 yards receiving, Mike Evans can tie Jerry Rice’s record for most consecutive 1,000-yard seasons (11).
Baker Mayfield is tied with Jared Goff for the highest completion percentage by a quarterback who has not missed a start.
The Saints are 2-5 ATS and SU in road games. They are 1-7 ATS against teams with winning records.
Tampa Bay is 5-3 ATS and 4-4 SU at home this season.

Bottom Line

Tampa Bay will win this game. With Derek Carr out for the game and Spencer Rattler in, the outlook is not good for the Saints offense. Alvin Kamara and Chris Olave are both listed as questionable; if they play, that’s a real boost for the New Orleans offense. But there is no reason to risk further injury to either superstar.

The Bucs will be down a couple of people in the secondary, but with Spencer Rattler as the quarterback for the Saints, it will not matter.

Our Pick: If you really want to bet on a winner, take the Bucs at -14. It’s a massive spread, but Tampa Bay will probably have it covered by halftime. But our recommended bet is Mike Evans, OVER 99.5, Receiving Yards at -120 (DraftKings) and OVER 6.5 receptions at -130.

Navigate