NFL Week 2 Line Movement Analysis (2025)
The 2025 NFL season rolls on with a full Week 2 slate. After the Commanders and Packers kicked things off on Thursday, it's time to get ready for the rest of the NFL Week 2 action. Tracking how much betting lines move during an NFL week can provide useful information to us bettors. As sportsbooks collect more information and public or sharp money flows in, lines take more shape.
Each game will have its reasoning for movement (e.g., injuries, betting activity, weather, etc.) and varying degrees of impact on the line. Let's take a look at how the spreads and totals have moved for every remaining NFL game this week.
NFL Week 2 Line Movement Analysis
The table below summarizes the home team spread and game total movement for this week’s NFL games. Below, we’ll break down some of the more significant line movements.
| Home Spread | Total | ||||||
| Away | Home | Open | Current | Diff | Open | Current | Diff |
| BUF | NYJ | 8 | 6 | -2 | 44.5 | 46.5 | 2 |
| CHI | DET | -4.5 | -6 | -1.5 | 48.5 | 46.5 | -2 |
| LAR | TEN | 5 | 5.5 | 0.5 | 42.5 | 41.5 | -1 |
| NE | MIA | -2.5 | -2 | 0.5 | 44 | 43.5 | -0.5 |
| SEA | PIT | -2.5 | -3 | -0.5 | 40.5 | 40 | -0.5 |
| JAC | CIN | -4 | -3.5 | 0.5 | 49.5 | 49 | -0.5 |
| SF | NO | 7 | 3 | -4 | 43.5 | 40.5 | -3 |
| CLE | BAL | -12.5 | -11.5 | 1 | 45 | 45 | - |
| NYG | DAL | -3 | -5.5 | -2.5 | 44.5 | 44.5 | - |
| DEN | IND | 3 | 1.5 | -1.5 | 44.5 | 43.5 | -1 |
| CAR | ARI | -4.5 | -6.5 | -2 | 45.5 | 44 | -1.5 |
| PHI | KC | -1.5 | 1 | 2.5 | 45.5 | 47 | 1.5 |
| ATL | MIN | -4.5 | -3.5 | 1 | 45.5 | 44.5 | -1 |
| TB | HOU | -1.5 | -2.5 | -1 | 45.5 | 42.5 | -3 |
| LAC | LV | 3 | 3.5 | 0.5 | 44.5 | 46.5 | 2 |
(Lines per DraftKings Sportsbook | Line movement via EV Analytics | Open odds from 9/7 | Current odds as of Thursday evening)
Philadelphia Eagles at Kansas City Chiefs
- Spread Movement: KC -1.5 to PHI -1
The Eagles have flipped from being the underdog to a road favorite in this rematch of Super Bowl LIX. Philadelphia kicked off the season with a 24-20 home win over Dallas, failing to cover the spread. Meanwhile, the Chiefs suffered a 27-21 loss to the Chargers in Brazil last Friday.
This line movement and spread flip likely has more to do with how the Chiefs looked in Week 1. The defense got gashed for 394 yards and multiple explosive plays. Plus, the Chiefs’ offense is now down another playmaker with Xavier Worthy hurt.
We have some interesting trends at play here. The Chiefs with Mahomes at quarterback are 21-4 straight up (SU) after a loss. That includes a 6-0 record on extended rest after a loss. On the flip side, the Eagles have some Super Bowl-related history on their side. This will be the 11th Super Bowl rematch in the following regular season. In the 10 previous instances, the Super Bowl winner is 7-3 SU and against the spread (ATS) in those games.
New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys
- Spread Movement: DAL -3 to DAL -6
The vibes are low on the Giants right now. New York mustered only six points in last week's loss to Washington. The offense put up just 231 total yards, with Russell Wilson having more incompletions (20) than completed passes (17). Plus, the defense gave up 432 total yards to the Commanders.
Meanwhile, the Cowboys covered as road underdogs last Thursday against the defending champion Eagles. The Dallas offense was clicking early, scoring 20 points before halftime. Things slowed down in the second half, but a lengthy weather delay likely had something to do with both offenses getting out of sync.
This line has been creeping towards the key number of 7, and it could get there by Sunday's kickoff. Interestingly, Dak Prescott is 13-2 SU and 10-5 ATS in his career against the Giants. That includes 13 straight victories over the divisional opponent.
Buffalo Bills at New York Jets
- Total Movement: 44.5 to 46.5
Both of these teams were involved in high-scoring games last week. The Bills pulled off a dramatic 41-40 comeback win over Baltimore. Meanwhile, the Jets lost a 34-32 shootout to Pittsburgh. As a result, this game’s total has risen two full points to the current 46.5 over/under.
Buffalo's defense left a lot to be desired in Week 1. The Bills gave up 432 total yards to the Ravens, including 238 on the ground. Derrick Henry and Lamar Jackson gashed the run defense as Baltimore averaged 8.2 yards per carry. Yet, Josh Allen and company looked good offensively, putting up nearly 500 total yards of offense themselves.
As for New York, its offense racked up 394 total yards while scoring 32 points in a losing effort. Justin Fields looked comfortable running the offense and Breece Hall accounted for 145 total yards. That Jets tandem will be a problem for opposing defenses, and the Bills just showed how much they may struggle against good rushing teams with dual-threat quarterbacks.
San Francisco 49ers at New Orleans Saints
- Spread Movement: SF -7 to SF -3
- Total Movement: 43.5 to 40.5
This game between San Francisco and New Orleans has seen significant line movement on both the spread and total. The 49ers opened as 7-point road favorites, but the spread is now just -3 in their favor. Meanwhile, the game total has dropped three full points to its current 40.5 over/under line.
Both line shifts are a result of San Francisco’s recent injury woes on offense. Brock Purdy will be sidelined this week and could miss multiple games while dealing with a toe injury. That forces Mac Jones into the starting quarterback role. Plus, George Kittle was placed on injured reserve (IR) after suffering a hamstring injury in Week 1.
The Purdy and Kittle absences are tough blows for a Niners' offense that was already missing Brandon Aiyuk, not to mention Deebo Samuel's offseason departure. It could be a run-heavy game plan for Kyle Shanahan's attack that could struggle with Jones under center. Notably, the Saints held the Cardinals to just 276 total yards of offense last week.
On the other side, New Orleans’ offense doesn't inspire much confidence either. Spencer Rattler had just a 70.4 passer rating last week while throwing for only 214 yards on 46 attempts. They mustered only 13 points against Arizona and now have to face a San Francisco defense that held Seattle to 230 total yards and 13 points in Week 1.