NFL Week 2 Picks Against the Spread (2018)
Week 1 had some exciting football moments. We saw the Buccaneers not only cover the spread but outright beat the Saints. Sam Darnold got his first career win on the road in Detroit. We saw a tie game between the Browns and Steelers. Aaron Rodgers came back from what looked like a season-ending injury to lead the Packers to a victory. It was quite the week, and there are plenty of takeaways we can pinpoint. However, it’s also important to not overreact to Week 1. Ryan Fitzpatrick won’t finish the year as MVP and the Browns won’t win the AFC North. Crazy things happen in Week 1, but it doesn’t mean they’ll be the norm for the remainder of the season.
Sunday 9/16/2018 1:00pm
Chiefs vs Steelers (-4.5)
Weather: 79 Degrees no chance of rain
Based on each of these team’s Week 1 performance, it’s hard to trust the Steelers. However, the fact that they walked away with a tie despite having six turnovers is insane. The Steelers now get to play at home with favorable weather against a defense that looked better than it was in Week 1. I’ve been vocal in my non-belief of the Chiefs being a great team this year. Yes, they looked great Week 1 against the Chargers, but I’m of the camp that this was more the Chargers playing below their talent level than the Chiefs being just that good. I expect an offensive explosion for the Steelers passing game in what should be a big bounce back.
Pick: Steelers -4.5 (Low Confidence), Score: PIT 30 – KC 20
Dolphins vs Jets (-3)
Weather: 81 Degrees no chance of rain
The Jets were absolutely fully prepared for the Lions, while the Lions couldn’t have been more ill-prepared. The Dolphins got the win over the Titans. The Jets are a very similar caliber of team to the Titans, the main difference being that the Titans are more of a run team while the Jets are more of a balanced team. Because of this, I expect a pretty close game. The Jets will be coming off a huge high after blowing out Detriot, but they also have home field advantage. The Dolphins beat the Titans at home in a game that saw two separate delays due to lightning. As a whole, I view these teams as fairly evenly matched, with the Jets home field advantage being the difference.
Pick: N/A, Score: NYJ 23 – MIA 20
Eagles vs Buccaneers (+3)
Weather: 89 Degrees 4% chance of rain
The Buccaneers absolutely stunned everyone by beating the Saints on the road with Ryan Fitzpatrick. The Eagles won an ugly game on Thursday night against a good Falcons team. The Buccaneers get home field advantage, but we’ve already seen the Eagles defense playing at a high level and with 10 days since their last game, they’ve had plenty of time to prepare for this one. We’ve seen huge weeks from Fitzpatrick before, but he often follows those up with some real duds. I still think the Buccaneers will be competitive, but I fully expect the Eagles to win this one handily.
Pick: Eagles -3 (Medium Confidence), Score: PHI 30 – TB 20
Browns vs Saints (-9.5)
Weather: Dome
The Saints shocked us all in Week 1. Not because of their offensive explosion, but because they allowed Ryan Fitzpatrick to get over 400 yards as they lost to the Buccaneers. The Browns tied the Steelers in what was an ugly mess of a game, both in terms of the weather and the play on the field. Many people will be nervous to look at the Saints, but I believe they bounce back in a big way. The Browns needed six Steeler turnovers and some awful weather to get that tie. Now the Browns have to go on the road into a dome against a team that has a ton of firepower.
Pick: Saints -9.5 (Low Confidence), Score: NO 31 – CLE 20
Colts vs Redskins (-5.5)
Weather: 77 Degrees 4% chance of rain
The Redskins looked great on the road against the Cardinals. Alex Smith threw the ball well, but it was the running game with Adrian Peterson and Chris Thompson that really got the job done. However, the Cardinals are looking like one of the lesser teams in the league this year. The Colts faced a very competitive Bengals team. While the Colts lost at home, we saw a lot of good things from Andrew Luck. I’m of the belief that Luck will expand on that and we’ll see some more throws down the field to T.Y. Hilton. This game is closer than the line gives it credit for and I believe the Colts could even pull out a win.
Pick: Colts +5.5 (Medium-Confidence), Score: IND 24 – WAS 23
Chargers vs Bills (+7.5)
Weather: 81 Degrees 1% chance of rain
We all saw how bad the Bills were in Week 1. We also saw the Chargers get taken to task by the Chiefs. Lucky for the Chargers, though, the Bills don’t have a Tyreek Hill. What the Bills do have is a new QB under center to start the game. The Bills are a bad team, but they won’t lose by 30+ every week, and at times they’ll even be competitive. The Chargers have a history when it comes to playing on the East Coast in the early slate of games. That history shows that they tend to play considerably below their talent level on these trips. I don’t see this time around being any different. It’s not looking like Joey Bosa will be ready by this week. While the Chargers should still win the game, it could be much closer than people think.
Pick: Bills +7.5 (Low Confidence), Score: LAC 23 – BUF 16
Vikings vs Packers (N/A)
Weather: 78 Degrees 1% chance of rain
The Packers get to stay at home for Week 2. They’ve already played a great NFC North defense in the Bears and almost lost Aaron Rodgers. Rodgers managed to come back and play through a knee sprain which will take him a couple months to fully recover from. This means expect Rodgers to be considerably less mobile and this offense to morph into more of a quick passing style. The Vikings offense is a better unit than what the Bears currently have, making the Vikings an interesting option on the road. With all that said, the Packers defense is improved and this team is battle-tested, while the Vikings had a pretty soft opening contest.
Pick: N/A
Panthers vs Falcons (-6)
Weather: Dome
Had the Falcons came out in the season opener and wowed us, then I’d be perfectly fine predicting them to win by two field goals. However, that’s not what happened. The Falcons largely struggled on offense against the Eagles, especially in the red zone. The Panthers defense isn’t at the same level as the Eagles, but it’s still a very good unit. Additionally, the Falcons have now lost Safety Keanu Neal and Linebacker Deion Jones. Jones is the big one for this matchup as he’d be the one responsible for covering Christian McCaffrey. While my prediction is for the Falcons to win 20-17, I actually have this one much closer to even and would not be surprised if the Panthers win this game outright.
Pick: Panthers +6 (Medium Confidence), Score: ATL 20 – CAR 17
Texans vs Titans (+2)
Weather: 83 Degrees 4% chance of rain
The Titans had a rough Week 1. Their game was delayed by lightning twice, Marcus Mariota left the game with an elbow injury, and they lost Delaine Walker for the season after dislocating his ankle. The Texans, on the other hand, went on the road and went toe to toe with the Patriots and lost by just one touchdown. This week the Texans should get Will Fuller back to lining up across from DeAndre Hopkins. The Titans may have a better running game, but the Texans are considerably better at most phases.
Pick: Texans -2 (High Confidence), Score: HOU 27 – TEN 13
Sunday 9/16/2018 4:05pm
Cardinals vs Rams (-13)
Weather: 82 Degrees no chance of rain
This is the biggest line of the week. We saw the Cardinals offense not look ready to play football, while the Rams came out in the second half and just laid it on the Raiders. Now that this team has one game of experience, I don’t believe they’ll have the same slow start. Additionally, the Cardinals don’t match up with the Rams in much of anything. David Johnson may be as talented as Todd Gurley, but his OLine is nothing like what the Rams have. I expect Larry Fitzgerald and David Johnson to each have some reasonable statistics, and for the team to score some garbage points in the 4th quarter to make this line close.
Pick: Rams -13 (Low Confidence), Score: LAR 34 – ARI 20
Lions vs 49ers (-6)
Weather: 66 Degrees no chance of rain
The Lions were absolutely embarrassed by the Jets on Monday Night. The Lions coaching staff just did not have this team ready to play. The 49ers played one of the better teams in the league, and while they were no match for the Vikings, they did play competitively. I fully expect the Lions to rededicate themselves in Week 2 and, at the very least, play a competitive game. The 49ers should still do enough to win this game, but I expect the Lions to keep it close when all is said and done.
Pick: Lions +6 (Medium Confidence), Score: SF 27 – DET 24
Sunday 9/16/2018 4:25pm
Raiders vs Broncos (-6)
Weather: 87 Degrees 2% chance of rain
The Raiders home opener on Monday night didn’t exactly go to plan. The Rams started slowly in the first half, but in the second half the Rams got it together and outscored the Raiders 23-0. The Broncos defense isn’t at the same level as the Rams, but they’re still one of the better units in the league, especially along the line. The Raiders also lose their home field advantage while the Broncos get to stay in Denver for the second straight week. While I do like the Broncos this year, I also dislike the Raiders just as much. I’ll lay the points and take the Broncos.
Pick: Broncos -6 (Low Confidence), Score: DEN 27 – OAK 17
Patriots vs Jaguars (+0.5)
Weather: 91 Degrees 7% chance of rain
This is a rematch of the AFC Championship game in which the Patriots just pulled out the victory. Both of these teams won their first matchup. The Patriots were able to keep the Texans in check, while the Jaguars went on the road to face an improved Giants team. The Jaguars have the better defense and home-field advantage. The Patriots have the better offense and coaching. This one really could go either way, but I’ll take Tom Brady and Rob Gronkowski to get them the production for a close victory.
Pick: Patriots -0.5 (Low Confidence), Score: NE 23 – JAC 20
Sunday 9/16/2018 8:20pm
Giants vs Cowboys (-3)
Weather: Dome
The Cowboys went on the road in Week 1 and they really couldn’t get much of anything going on offense against the Panthers. The Giants managed to keep their game against the Jaguars within a touchdown. The Cowboys did a decent job against the Panthers offense, but it’s fair to say the Giants have more weapons on offense than the Panthers. The Giants defense is not as good as the Panthers as a whole, but are a pretty decent group against the run. This matchup is one of strengths vs strengths. While I view this game close to 50/50 I’ll take the points with the road team.
Pick: Giants +3 (Low Confidence), Score: NYG 23 – DAL 20
Monday 9/17/2018 8:15pm
Seahawks vs Bears (-3.5)
Weather: 76 Degrees no chance of rain
The Bears had a victory against the Packers slip through their fingers. This week they’re at home against a Seahawks team that lost on the road the Broncos. Oddly enough, the Bears seem like a fairly similar team to the Broncos. I’d say the Bears are actually a tougher defense than the Broncos. The Bears offense started pretty hot against the Packers, but by the time the second half rolled around, they began to stall. Even with this, though, the Bears offense looks like it’s on the way up. The Bears pass rush should keep Russell Wilson from getting comfortable. Matt Nagy’s offensive scheme should be able to do enough to get the Bears their first victory.
Pick: Bears -3.5 (High Confidence), Score: CHI 27 – SEA 17
Kyle Kontos is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Kyle, check out his archive.