NFL Week 2 Preview: Picks & Predictions (Saints vs. Cowboys)
The New Orleans Saints travel to Texas this week to play the Dallas Cowboys in AT&T Stadium at 1 p.m. ET on FOX. Despite scoring more points than any other team in Week 1, the Saints opened as underdogs of 6+points in Week 2 vs. Dallas.
No matter how this game plays out, it has already made history. For the first time since the 2016 season, a team that won by 20+ in Week 1 is an underdog by six or more points. That doesn’t mean the Cowboys are a lock to win, of course.
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New Orleans Saints vs. Dallas Cowboys Betting Preview
Saints vs. Cowboys Betting Lines & Details:
- Opening Lines: Saints +6.5 o/u 45
- Current Lines: Saints +6 at -105/ Cowboys -6 at -115 o/u 46.5
- Location: AT&T Stadium in Arlington, TX
- Start Time: 1 p.m. ET
- TV: FOX
- Last Meeting: December 2, 2021: Cowboys won 27-17
Overview
New Orleans fans should be a little excited after watching their Saints score more points than any other team in the league. Offense wins games and defense wins championships. With a final score of 47-10, the team had plenty of both.
But that’s not all. The last time the Saints opened the season scoring 40+ points was in 2009. The last time they made it to the Super Bowl... was also in 2009. That season, they opened at home with a 45-27 win over the Detroit Lions and then went on the road against another NFC East team (Philadelphia Eagles). Drew Brees threw for 300+ yards and led the team to a 48-22 win to start the season 2-0.
Fans would, of course, love it if history were to repeat. However, in this case, history is working against them. Dallas has won its last 16 home games. The Cowboys lead the all-time series 18-13, and 11-4 as the home team.
However, the last time these two teams met in Arlington was in 2018. It’s safe to say both teams have undergone a lot of change since then.
As exciting as scoring 47 points is, Saints fans must remember who they did it against - a dreadful Carolina Panthers defense. It will not be nearly as easy to get the ball moving against a Dallas defense that held the Browns to 230 yards of offense and 17 points (of which seven came in garbage time).
Dallas had a top-five defense last season but lost then-defensive coordinator Dan Quinn to the Washington Commanders. However, the unit appears ready to pick up where it left off under the new defensive coordinator Mike Zimmer. But the Cowboys didn’t face an offense with a playmaker as dynamic as Alvin Kamara. Kamara led a ground attack that gained 180 yards last week with 83.
The Dallas defense has had issues recently against running teams:
- Aaron Jones ran for 118 yards and three touchdowns in a 48-32 over the Cowboys at AT&T Stadium in the Wild Card round last year.
- The 49ers ran for 170 yards in a 42-10 win over Dallas in Week 5 last season.
- When the Cowboys lost to the Packers in Green Bay in Week 10 of the 2022 season, the Packers ran for 207 yards.
While stopping the run is an obvious concern for the Cowboys, a more significant concern may be their own run game. An inconsistent rushing game tallied 102 yards on the ground against the Browns last week and failed to get the tough yards when the offense needed them most.
The Saints’ defense held the Panthers to 58 yards on the ground last week.
Trends
- Favorites went 13-3 straight up (SU) and 9-7 against the spread (ATS) in Week 1, tied for the best mark for Week 1 favorites since realignment in 2002.
- Dallas will take a 16-game regular season home win streak into the game.
- With Dennis Allen as head coach, the Saints are 4-10-1 after a win.
- Two teams (2016 Saints and 1998 Cowboys) have closed as at least a touchdown underdog after winning by 20+ in Week 1; both teams lost in Week 2 by 19 points.
Bottom Line
The run game will be the key to victory for either team. Dallas struggled to run the ball last week. The Saints had no trouble running the ball. But running on a dreadful Panthers defense and running on the Cowboys are two different things. We think the Cowboys will win (76% of the handle and 89% of tickets are on the Dallas Moneyline). However, we doubt whether they can cover the spread.
However, the public disagrees (88% of the handle is on Cowboys to cover).
Our Pick: Dallas -6
Confidence is not high, but it’s the best choice.