NFL Week 3 Anytime TD Scorer & Win Parlays: Eagles vs. Saints
Last week started so well. My first pick of the week, Chris Godwin, hit his Anytime Touchdown (ATD) as well as his First Touchdown (FTD) for a cool +250/+1700 payout. After that, however, there was not much for me to crow about. I did hit a few other ATDs, but they were few and far between. Such is the nature of the ATD and FTD beast. I am back at it again this week to hopefully have better results.
As I have mentioned previously and will continue to emphasize, I am tracking these using bet sizes of 0.4 units on ATD and 0.1 units on FTD. Use your discretion and adjust as you see fit. We compare anytime touchdown stats to prop bet odds and projections to help identify this week's best bets. Here are all of my NFL first and anytime TD picks for Week 4. Below we dive into our top NFL anytime TD and win picks for Eagles vs. Saints.
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NFL Week 3 Anytime & First TD Scorers: Eagles vs. Saints
(All wagers are 0.5 units)
Who will score a touchdown in this week’s NFL Games? The Anytime TD market covers any player who carries or receives the ball into the end zone, not the QB who passes the ball. We compare anytime touchdown stats to prop bet odds and projections to help identify today’s best bets. View Anytime Touchdown odds across sportsbooks here.
Eagles vs. Saints
- Anytime TD Odds: +160 at Bet365 Sportsbook
- First TD Odds: +1000 at Bet365 Sportsbook
It feels like the books are retroactively pricing Alvin Kamara after his four-touchdown blowup game last week in Dallas. The same can be said to a lesser degree for Rashid Shaheed. That creates some opportunities for other players on the Saints' side. My favorite ATD player in this game is wide receiver Chris Olave. Olave is not among the six Saints who have scored touchdowns yet. However, he is still arguably their most skilled player and gets an outstanding Week 3 matchup versus the Philadelphia Eagles.
The Eagles have allowed five touchdowns so far this season. All five have been to opposing wide receivers. They have given up the third-most scrimmage yards to wideouts. Olave runs 82 percent of his routes on the outside of the offensive formation. He should face off against a combination of Darius Slay and Quinyon Mitchell. That duo has allowed 175 receiving yards and a touchdown on 18 total targets. Seven of Olave's nine career touchdown catches have come at home, and I think he has an excellent opportunity to bump that number up on Sunday.
The numbers don't lie. Through the first two weeks of the season, the New Orleans Saints have been the best team in the NFL. The Saints have scored 45.5 points per game, including a win against Carolina and Dallas. To start the season, New Orleans has scored on all 14 drives led by Derek Carr. Eventually, that's going to end. But I'm an analytics guy. The Saints look incredible analytically on offense. Meanwhile, Philadelphia has been awful against the run and really hasn't performed well in the secondary to start the season, either. On the other hand, the Eagles are getting the best performance from Jalen Hurts to begin the season. Hurts ran the ball more effectively last week but has already thrown three interceptions in two games. Therefore, I'll grab the Saints.
Pick: Saints ML (-154)
Anytime TD Scorer & Win Parlay Odds: +329