NFL Week 3 Early Lines vs. Line Movement Predictions (2022)
The Sunday of Week 2 provided one of the craziest NFL days in recent memory. Tua Tagovailoa threw for six touchdowns as the Dolphins erased a 21-point fourth-quarter deficit, the Jets came back from 13 down with less than two minutes left, and the Cardinals outscored the Raider 16-0 in the fourth to force overtime, where they won on a scoop and score.
These were just a few of the wild finishes in Week 2. How will the finals in Week 2 impact line movement in Week 3?
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Pittsburgh Steelers at Cleveland Browns
The Browns suffered one of the biggest collapses in NFL history Sunday, while the Steelers fell back to earth after their Week 1 win over the Bengals. The Browns opened as 3-point home favorites, but that number has quickly grown to -5.
Bettors seem ready to acknowledge that both Pittsburgh’s Week 1 win and Cleveland’s Week 2 loss were flukes. With no key numbers in play, this line should keep moving in favor of the Browns, but it is unlikely it will ever hit 7.
- Current Line: Browns -5
- Predicted Final Line: Browns -6.5
Kansas City Chiefs at Indianapolis Colts
The last time these two teams met, a banged-up Indianapolis Colts team traveled to Kansas City and won 19-13 as 10.5-point underdogs. It was a signature win for Frank Reich, as he showed the NFL how to slow down Patrick Mahomes and the high-powered Chiefs offense.
Reich and the Colts are desperate for a win this time, yet they find themselves 6.5-point home underdogs. For as disappointing as Indianapolis has been, the Chiefs are 2-0 and coming off a huge Thursday night win over the Chargers.
This feels like a trap from Vegas. The public play will be the Chiefs because many will feel that getting this under the key number is just too good to be true. Look for this line to swell as the week progresses, getting as high as Chiefs -8 or 8.5 before settling at -7 or -7.5.
- Current Line: Chiefs -6.5
- Predicted Final Line: Chiefs -7.5
Cincinnati Bengals at New York Jets
The Jets staged one of the most improbable comebacks in NFL history in Week 2, while the Bengals fell to the Dak Prescott-less Dallas Cowboys to drop to 0-2 on the season. The Bengals opened as 6.5-point road favorites, yet they are now favored by just 4.5 at most sportsbooks.
While the Jets’ win in Week 2 was exciting, New York is unbelievably lucky to have escaped with a win. It seems the public has drastically overreacted to what happened in Week 2, which has caused this line to drop. Look for the sharp money to come in late on Cincinnati and push this line back up towards a touchdown.
- Current Line: Bengals -4.5
- Predicted Final Line: Bengals -6
Green Bay Packers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Packers and Buccaneers meet in what is likely the marquee matchup of Week 3. After a disappointing Week 1, the Packers bounced back and took care of business against the Bears. Meanwhile, the Buccaneers struggled for three quarters against the Saints before blowing the top off the game in the fourth quarter.
Mike Evans has been suspended for this game due to his altercation with Marshon Lattimore in Week 2. That could spell trouble for the Bucs and their offense, which hasn’t been very good so far this season.
Look for the Week 2 eye test to move this line in favor of Green Bay, but don’t expect them ever to be favored.
- Current Line: Buccaneers -2.5
- Predicted Final Line: Buccaneers -1.5
San Francisco 49ers at Denver Broncos
The Broncos somehow managed to escape Week 2 with a win over Houston, but it was far from pretty. Nathaniel Hackett is already on the hot seat, as his questionable playcalling has resulted in some really terrible red zone offense for Denver.
Meanwhile, the 49ers lost Trey Lance for the season, and they will now turn to Jimmy Garoppolo for the remainder of the year. Jimmy G looked good in relief in Week 2, and the 49ers’ defense was completely in control the entire way against the Seahawks.
This game will be played in Denver, but the 49ers are currently favored by one point. The 49ers may seem like the right side, but look for this line to move in favor of the Broncos as the week progresses, ultimately ending with Denver favored.
- Current Line: 49ers -1
- Predicted Final Line: Broncos -1.5
Dallas Cowboys at New York Giants
The Cowboys were absolutely dreadful in Week 1, and they lost starting quarterback Dak Prescott in the process. Because of that, they got almost no respect heading into Week 2. Yet, despite being 7-point home underdogs, they won outright against the defending AFC champions.
Now, the Cowboys travel to East Rutherford to take on the 2-0 Giants on Monday Night Football. And guess what? The public is overreacting to Week 2 the same way they did Week 1.
The Giants opened as 4.5-point favorites, but that line quickly dropped from the key number to 2.5. If you’re on the Giants, get in now because this line is moving back as game time approaches.
- Current Line: Giants -2.5
- Predicted Final Line: Giants -3.5
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Phil Wood is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Phil, check out his archive and follow him @Phil_Wood_Jr.