NFL Week 3 Game Preview & Predictions (Texans vs. Vikings)

by Travis Pulver |
Sep 22, 2024

The Houston Texans will hit the road in Week 3 of the NFL season to try to do something no Texans team has ever accomplished: beat the Minnesota Vikings. Despite being the road team in a matchup of undefeated teams, the Texans vs. Vikings odds at DraftKings have Houston as the betting favorite.

Houston went 4-4 in road games last season, while Minnesota went just 2-6 at home. But these are the Sam Darnold-led Vikings (yes, that is supposed to be a good thing); we'll talk about why in a moment. First-here's the betting line for today's Houston Texans vs. Minnesota Vikings game:

Week 3 Game Preview: Houston Texans at Minnesota Vikings

Details

Opening line: Texans -3.5, O/U 46.5
Closing line: Texans -1.5, O/U 46
Location: U.S. Bank Stadium in Minneapolis, MN
Start Time: 1 p.m. ET
TV: CBS
Last Meeting: October 4, 2020-Vikings 31, Texans 23

Overview

Sam Darnold was expected to start the season as QB1, but few thought he would play as well as he has. Could it be he just needed a superstar wide receiver, good offensive line, and a solid running back to live up to his potential? It was one thing to look dominant like he did against the Giants, but to complete 65.4% of his passes and average 10.3 yards per attempt against the 49ers defense? Okay, Sam. We see you.

With the offense clicking and the defense playing well, the Vikings are undefeated, have a top-ten offense (scoring) and top-five defense (scoring), and have seen their Super Bowl odds shift more than any other team (from +10000 to +5000 at BetMGM).

However, there's a solid story unfolding on the other sideline. C.J. Stroud's career is off to a better start than Darnold's after winning Offensive Rookie of the Year. Yett, the offense has something this year that it didn't really have last year...or at least it did in Week 1– a running game.

Their defense is playing well overall, but the stats are a little concerning. Yes, it's great that the unit is in the top three in total yards, but teams are still scoring points (20 ppg allowed; No. 13) on them.

With two such apparently good teams facing off, fans can expect a great game. Or will one team be exposed as not being nearly as good as their early success would indicate?

Injuries could prove pivotal, with both teams possibly having to do without key players this week. Minnesota will be down by at least a pair of defensive players, and Justin Jefferson and Aaron Jones are a little banged up. Houston could be down to their No. 3 running back, Cam Akers. Nico Collins, the league leader in receiving yards, is dealing with hip/foot issues (which could mean more Stefon Diggs this week).

Trends

From 1970 through 2022, 155 teams started the season 3-0; 115 made the playoffs, 42 made the Super Bowl, and 21 won the Super Bowl.
Texans are 3-9-1 in the last 13 games they've been the betting favorite in; Vikings are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 home games.
Favorites are 21-11 SU and 14-17 ATS this season; Home dogs are 2-6 SU and 4-4 ATS this season.
C.J. Stroud is 4-2 against NFC teams; Sam Darnold is 1-1 vs. the Texans in his career.

Bottom Line

Both teams look good so far. Yes, Houston looked strong against the Colts in Week 1, but the offense sputtered somewhat against the Bears in Week 2. Sam Darnold has been great, but will it last? Mistakes, forced or otherwise, will be pivotal in this game. Houston has turned the ball over just once; Minnesota- four.

More money is on the Vikings to win outright (64%) than the Texans (36%), but there are more tickets on Houston to win outright (62%) and via the spread (57%).

Our Pick: Texans -1.5

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