NFL Week 3 Odds, Picks & Predictions: Bills vs. Dolphins Game Preview (2022)
In Week 1, the Buffalo Bills destroyed the Los Angeles Rams while the Miami Dolphins struggled to defeat the New England Patriots. At that point, no one expected this matchup in Week 3 to be close. However, after the Dolphins’ comeback victory over the Baltimore Ravens last week, this week’s matchup against the Bills is a highly anticipated contest.
How will this game turn out for fans and bettors? Let’s dive into it.
All betting lines and odds are courtesy of DraftKings
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Buffalo Bills Preview
No team has looked better over the first two weeks than the Bills. They have defeated two playoff teams from last year, including the Superbowl champion Rams. Yet, they’ve won both games by at least 21 points. Furthermore, Buffalo annihilated the Tennessee Titans last week, resulting in Josh Allen spending the fourth quarter on the sidelines. Over the first two weeks, the Bills have allowed 17 total points while posting a 27.5 average margin of victory.
Buffalo’s success has come from both sides of the ball. Allen has seven passing touchdowns, tying for the league lead. Yet, he has only 17 incompletions this season by comparison. The elite quarterback also leads the Bills on the ground. He is second on the team in rushing yards (66), first in yards per rushing attempt average (six), and has scored the team’s only rushing touchdown this season.
Defensively, the Bills have made the opposing quarterback have nightmares. They are second in the NFL with nine sacks, including seven on Matthew Stafford in Week 1. The offseason addition of Von Miller has been immense for the Bills. He leads the team with two sacks and four tackles for a loss. In this critical AFC East divisional matchup, Miller could have a massive performance against a suspect Miami offensive line.
Best Buffalo Bet: Over 29.5 Team Points (-115)
Miami Dolphins Preview
The Dolphins were one of the more polarizing teams entering the season. Some viewed them as Superbowl contenders with the offseason additions of Tyreek Hill, Terron Armstead, and new head coach Mike McDaniel. Meanwhile, others had their doubts about the team because of Tua Tagovailoa. However, the Dolphins are one of only six teams to remain undefeated heading into Week 3.
Last week, Tua matched Dan Marino and Bob Griese’s franchise record by throwing six touchdowns in the comeback win over the Ravens. Despite his terrific performance last week, some remain skeptical about the former Alabama quarterback. However, Tagovailoa is tied for the league lead with seven passing touchdowns. Furthermore, his 739 passing yards lead the NFL, 89 more than any other quarterback and 125 more than Allen. The addition of Hill to pair with Jaylen Waddle has made the Miami offense one of the most explosive units in the NFL.
With the offensive exploding for 42 points last week, the Miami defense has become an afterthought. When healthy, they are an elite unit. They forced three turnovers and had a pair of sacks in their Week 1 win over the Patriots. However, the defenses struggled against Lamar Jackson last week. They didn’t register a sack or turnover, while Jackson had 318 passing yards, 119 rushing yards, and four total touchdowns. The defense will need to be much better this week against Allen if the Dolphins are going to win.
Best Miami Bet: Tyreek Hill Over 73.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
Bills vs. Dolphins Prediction
The matchup between these two teams hasn’t been pretty over the past few years. Buffalo has won seven straight matchups, covering the spread five times. Last year they won both matchups by a combined score of 61-11. Furthermore, the Bills have won the past three matchups in Miami by an average margin of 18.3 points. As great of a team Buffalo has, the Bills won’t win this week’s game by three scores.
Both teams will be without critical members in the secondary for this game. The Dolphins won’t have starting cornerback Byron Jones as he is on injured reserve with an ankle injury and won’t be available until Week 5. Miami also might be without their best cornerback Xavien Howard as he is listed as questionable with a groin injury.
Meanwhile, the Bills could be without four starters in the secondary. Star cornerback Tre’Davious White is on injured reserve as he’s recovering from a torn ACL he suffered last season. They will also be without safety Micah Hyde and cornerback Dane Jane because of various injuries, while safety Jordan Poyer is questionable with a foot injury.
The spread is currently five points on DraftKings, while the over/under is 53 points. The Bills are the favored team, but should they be? Probably, but it’s debatable.
Both teams have the firepower to score 40 points if needed. With both defenses missing critical members in the secondary, this game should be a high-scoring matchup. Therefore, the best move for bettors is to bet the over on the total and avoid the spread.
Best Game Bet: Over 53 Total Points (–110)
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Mike Fanelli is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @Mike_NFL2.