NFL Week 3 Odds, Picks & Predictions: Sunday Night Football (49ers vs. Broncos)
The Week 3 Sunday night showdown is filled with intrigue. On one side, the San Francisco 49ers will go back to Jimmy Garoppolo under center after losing Trey Lance for the season. On the other, there’s the Denver Broncos, who have been pretty underwhelming and borderline dysfunctional through two games.
This spread has moved quite a bit. The Broncos originally opened at -1.5, but enter Sunday as 1.5-point home underdogs. Should we trust Kyle Shanahan and the Niners as road favorites, or does this shift in the spread represent a buy-low opportunity on Denver? Let’s break down this Sunday night football matchup.
San Francisco 49ers -1.5 at Denver Broncos, Total 44.5
Could the 49ers be better off with Jimmy G?
Imagine if the 49ers had actually traded Garoppolo. Instead, the 49ers season is still alive after Lance broke his ankle early in last week’s loss to Seattle. Garoppolo came in and righted the ship, completing 13-of-21 passes for 154 yards and a touchdown.
While we’ll never know what San Francisco’s offensive ceiling would’ve been with Lance, Garoppolo’s presence at least gives us some certainty. We’ve seen a Garoppolo-led offense before. The 49ers will prioritize an outside zone running scheme and capitalize off play action. You won’t see Garoppolo push the ball downfield often, as the Shanahan offense schemes receivers open through play design and relies on yards after the catch.
San Francisco will also benefit from getting star tight end George Kittle back from a groin injury that held him out of the last two contests.
The 49ers are at their best when they’re staying ahead of the chains on the ground. However, that might be a trickier task against a Broncos defense that ranks eighth in rush defense DVOA and has allowed just 78 yards per game on the ground through the first two weeks.
San Francisco’s defense has been stout, although they’ve played the Chicago Bears in a rainstorm and the lowly Seattle Seahawks. Results are results though, and the Niners have gotten them so far. San Francisco is surrendering the fewest yards per game in the NFL (210.5) and ranks 4th in defensive DVOA.
Sunday will be the toughest test for the 49ers defense thus far, and it’ll be interesting to see whether this defense is for real.
Broncos have been a hot mess
Has there been a more disappointing team through two games than Denver? The start of the Nathaniel Hackett era has been pretty rough. Denver blew a game they had no business losing in Seattle in Week 1, then looked uninspiring in an ugly 16-9 win over the Houston Texans in their home opener.
The Broncos often look out of sync and unorganized offensively. Last week, Broncos fans were sarcastically counting down the play clock after Russell Wilson and the offense were constantly running plays down to the wire in Week 1.
Wilson deserves a lot of the blame for Denver’s early struggles. Wilson has completed 59% of his passes for 559 yards, two touchdowns and an interception. He has a pedestrian 48.9 QBR. Often, it looks like Wilson is trying to do too much and hit home runs instead of taking what’s given. That stubborn aggressiveness might’ve played a role in Wilson’s tenure in Seattle deteriorating, and it remains a cause for concern in his new home.
Denver might opt to rely on its tailback tandem of Javonte Williams and Melvin Gordon. Williams has looked awfully impressive early in his second season, while Gordon is an excellent complementary back. Wilson has built an early rapport with Courtland Sutton, but it looks like Denver will also get Jerry Jeudy back after he left last week’s game with an injury.
Defensively, the Broncos might be legitimate as well. They rank fifth in defensive DVOA and are third in yards per game allowed. The Broncos haven’t played a great offense yet, but they’re loaded with talent at at all three levels. Plus, it looks as if cornerback Pat Surtain will go after getting hurt last week.
Prediction and Best Bet
I originally took the 49ers when they opened as short underdogs. However, I’m not as inclined to lay the short number with San Francisco on the road. Since 2017, the 49ers are 17-25-1 against the spread as a favorite and just 8-8 on the road ATS. And while Garoppolo gives this offense a higher floor, I’m concerned about how he’ll perform against this stingy Denver defense.
On the other side, I need to see competent coaching from this Broncos staff before I wager on them again after they’ve burnt me two weeks in a row. It’s too early to call, but I’m already doubting Hackett’s validity as a head coach. I have to see it before I back it.
So, with the spread out of the question, I’m pivoting to the total. Both of these teams possess potentially elite defenses that rank top 10 in DVOA. I expect both of these units to dictate the game. Therefore, the under is my recommended play.
The pick: Under 44.5, play to 44
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