NFL Week 3 Odds, Picks & Predictions (Sunday)
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NFL Odds, Picks & Predictions: Week 3
Titans vs. Browns
This game has the makings of a defensive struggle. The Browns offense looked lost at times after Nick Chubb went down Monday night. And while Tennessee's pass defense is arguably the team's greatest weakness, I don't trust Deshaun Watson to take advantage. On the other side, the Titans offense could struggle mightily against a Cleveland defense that needs to be considered among the league's best. New defensive coordinator Jim Schwartz has done a tremendous job, and the Browns could have Ryan Tannehill running for his life early and often. Tennessee's offensive line has surrendered eight sacks through two games, while the Browns lead the league in QB knockdowns. Cleveland's allowed just 3.2 yards per carry, which suggests it could be tough sledding for Derrick Henry. Factor in wind speeds that could top out at 30 MPH, and this game screams under.
Pick: Under 39.5 (-110)
-Matt Barbato
Falcons vs. Lions
The Falcons have picked up right where they left off last year with their strong running game. This year, led by rookie RB Bijan Robinson, they’ve started off with a top-five DVOA running game. They’ll go up against an improved Lions’ run defense. After being near the bottom of the league last year, they rank in the top half of the league through two games in DVOA run defense. On the other side of the ball, QB Jared Goff and his pride of pass-catching Lions rank as one of the top units in the league. This could spell trouble for an Atlanta secondary that Jordan Love was able to take advantage of. Atlanta has taken some money so far this week, and the line has moved in their favor, but probably too far. At this number, I like the Lions to exploit some of the Atlanta weaknesses and get the cover.
Pick: Lions -3 (-115)
-Ryan Rodeman
Saints vs. Packers
You could argue New Orleans should be 2-0 ATS as well as 2-0 straight up, as a late field goal against Tennessee and a late touchdown against Carolina cost them covers in both contests. However, I haven't seen much from Derek Carr and this offense to warrant much excitement. Carr has looked out of sync often, as is tradition for him in the first year of a new offense. This is an interesting strength vs. weakness battle, as both defenses have struggled to defend the ground game through two games, while their offenses have struggled to establish much on the ground. The Packers have some key players on the injury report, but key playmakers Aaron Jones and Christian Watson look likely to return to action. Meanwhile, I suspect Jaire Alexander will be matched up with Chris Olave for much of this game, limiting an already low ceiling for this Saints offense. The Saints have the more experienced QB, and the defensive matchup is pretty even. But I ultimately trust Green Bay's coaching staff to develop another strong game plan in their home opener.
Pick: Packers -1 (-110)
-Matt Barbato
Broncos vs. Dolphins
The Sean Payton era hasn’t gotten off to the start that many in Denver hoped. An 0-2 start saw them lose halftime leads at home to both Las Vegas and Washington. In this game they’ll travel to Miami which was a house of horrors for opposing teams early in the season. It’s no secret that Miami has an early-season home-field advantage as the weather stays hot like it will on Sunday. Miami was able to take advantage of tired, cramping teams in the second half last year and I expect the same this year. The Broncos are the right side to bet here, but I cannot trust this team or this quarterback to finish a second half, especially in Miami. That’s why I’m going to play Broncos first-half spread and look for an early Sunday payout.
Pick: Broncos +3.5 1H (+100)
-Ryan Rodeman
Chargers vs. Vikings
The Chargers have been in two high-scoring games, but they've been on the wrong side of each, losing by a total of five points this season. Austin Ekelar is out again, and the LA offense has been pass-heavy without him. The Vikings are another team that has been involved in close games but has not been able to come away with a win. The Vikings don't have a run game, so they went out and traded for Cam Akers, and they're the heaviest passing team in the league, but when you have Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, and TJ Hockenson, you don't need to run. This is two lineups of offensive player makers and struggling defenses. Sign me up for the over.
Pick: Over 53.5 (-110)
-John Supowitz
Patriots vs. Jets
The Jets no longer have Aaron Rodgers under center. But they're confident in Zach Wilson. I might as well be, too. New York has one of the best defenses in the NFL. It didn't play like it last weekend against the Cowboys. But against the Patriots, they'll be ready. The Cowboys found ways to get CeeDee Lamb the ball as their top target. The Patriots don't have a premier wide receiver like Lamb. Meanwhile, New England's run block has been dreadful. Rhamondre Stevenson has nowhere to go. He's rushed 27 times for just 75 yards. That's an average of 2.8 yards per carry. The Jets should protect Wilson more in this game. If they can get the run game going and Wilson can limit turnovers, I like New York's chances to beat the Patriots.
Pick: Jets +3 (-110)
-Jason Radowitz
Bills vs. Commanders
The Washington Commanders have been surprisingly good to start the season. Washington needs to figure out their special teams unit. But other than that, I'm like what I've seen. The Commanders have averaged over 350 yards of offense and have held teams to under 330 yards on defense. The pass rush is sensational, especially with Chase Young back in the mix. They've also looked solid against the run, holding teams to 109 yards per game on the ground. In two games, QB Sam Howell has only thrown one interception for the Commanders. Compare that to Josh Allen's three interceptions. The Commanders will rush Allen into making some decisions. That's usually not an excellent thing for Allen. When he's under pressure, he forces the ball through extremely tight pockets. Finally, Buffalo's run defense was terrible against the Jets last weekend. Against Brian Robinson Jr., I'm expecting the Bills to struggle against the run again. Give me the Commanders at +6.5.
Pick: Commanders +6.5 (-110)
-Jason Radowitz
Texans vs. Jaguars
I've heard the narrative that the Jaguars struggle to cover games as favorites at home. But I don't care about those trends. I'm worried about how each time matches up. The Jaguars match up so much better than the Texans in this game. CJ Stroud has looked solid in his rookie season for the Texans. He's got some nice targets between Nico Collins and Tank Dell. However, the run game has been awful. Houston's No. 1 RB, Dameon Pierce, has added 69 yards in the first two games combined. The Jaguars should dominate against the run and have one of the better secondaries in the NFL. Meanwhile, the Jaguars have struggled on the ground over the first two weeks. But that'll change against a Texans defense that has allowed 118 yards per game. Travis Etienne and the run game can be better, and I think they will be in this game. Plus, Trevor Lawrence has been good enough for the Jaguars. He'll need more time in the pocket. That time in the pocket, he'll also get against the Texans. Back the Jaguars at -8.5.
Pick: Jaguars -8 (-110)
-Jason Radowitz
Colts vs. Ravens
The Colts have ruled out Anthony Richardson for Sunday's start against the Ravens. Therefore, the Colts will ride out their game against the Ravens with Gardner Minshew. That's not all that bad. Minshew went 19-of-25 last weekend with 171 yards and a touchdown. But he's working with a non-existent run game. It's like the Colts could use Jonathan Taylor after all! Indianapolis has added 95.5 yards per game on the ground, much of which was from Richardson. For example, Zach Moss, the leading rusher on the team, has added 88 yards in two games. Still, on the defensive end, the Colts have also dominated against the run, holding teams to 78.5 points per game. Indianapolis can tackle better and will need to be better in coverage. But overall, upfront, the Colts aren't so bad. With the Ravens averaging under 350 yards per game, I like the Under in this one.
Pick: Under 44.5 (-110)
-Jason Radowitz
Panthers vs. Seahawks
The big news surrounding this game is that QB Bryce Young is unlikely to play. Andy Dalton would take over quarterbacking duties but this really isn’t a drop-off from Young. As bad as the Panthers have looked offensively, they haven’t been atrocious on defense, especially pass defense where they rank top five in DVOA. This could be a key matchup as the Seahawks rank sixth in pass offense by the same metric. The Seahawks looked bad in Week 1 against the Rams. They were able to defeat the Lions in Week 2 but they needed the Lions to shoot themselves in the foot a couple of times to get there. The Seahawks should probably win this one, but with Dalton at QB, Carolina will get a little better decision making and it should be enough for them to cover.
Pick: Panthers +5.5 (-110)
-Ryan Rodeman
Bears vs. Chiefs
The Bears had a lot of offseason hype coming into the season, but they have yet to live up to it. It was thought Justin Fields would evolve as a passer, but his indecisiveness hurts him because although he's been sacked the second-most (10), he gets an average of 2.7 seconds in the pocket (fifth best). Are the Chiefs back to normal now? They lost at home and have only scored 37 points. They scored more than that in a game four times last year. The significant difference is Eric Bienemy is no longer the offensive coordinator last year, and they could be slow to learn this new offense. The Chiefs' defense was much better with DT Chris Jones in the lineup. He should have opportunities to break through the pocket, and Fields' inability to run at the moment might hurt him. This could be a rough day for the Bears in Arrowhead.
Pick: Cheifs -12.5 (-110)
-John Supowitz
Cowboys vs. Cardinals
There’s no getting around it, the Cardinals are bad. Probably the worst team in the league. However, when it comes to ATS they’re looking like a juggernaut. They’ve gone 2-0 ATS and even challenged to win straight up against the first two NFC East foes they’ve played this year. The Cowboys have been really strong this season but a 12.5-point spread is difficult for anyone to cover. The offense really hasn’t looked that impressive. The defense was on display in Week 1 as they forced three turnovers and scored two defensive touchdowns. In Week 2 they scored just two offensive touchdowns and kicked five field goals. The Cardinals aren’t as good as the Giants or the Jets, but on the road on the West Coast, the Cowboys could sleepwalk through this game before traveling back home in Week 4. I’m going to hold my nose and take the Cardinals with this enormous number.
Pick: Cardinals +12.5 (-110)
-Ryan Rodeman
Steelers vs. Raiders
The Pittsburgh Steelers needed two defensive touchdowns to outlast a Cleveland Browns team that lost Nick Chubb midway through the game. Despite the win, Pittsburgh was outgained 408-255 and averaged just 2.7 yards per carry. Pittsburgh's offense is a bit of a disaster, as offensive coordinator Matt Canada's system continues to resemble someone repeatedly hitting their head against a wall expecting it to fall down. But the defense is also a concern without Cam Heyward. The Browns shredded the Steelers on the ground even without Chubb, as Jerome Ford ran for 106 yards on 16 carries after the injury. I'd expect Josh McDaniels to make a concerted effort to get Josh Jacobs going after two awful performances. And while Pittsburgh has a ton of pass rushing talent, the Raiders are the only team in the league to not surrender a sack this season. Part of the reason is Jimmy Garoppolo, who is plenty capable of getting the ball out quickly before T.J. Watt and co. can get home. Las Vegas' defense doesn't yield a ton of confidence, but I'm not a believer in Kenny Pickett or his play caller. This is also a tough situation for Pittsburgh, who has to fly cross country on a short week. Ultimately, I'll take the Raiders as short home favorites, as well as the over on Jacobs' rushing prop.
Pick: Raiders -2.5 / Josh Jacobs over 72.5 rushing yards
-Matt Barbato
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