NFL Week 3 Picks Against the Spread (2018)

Well, in Week 2 the insanity has continued. Fitzpatrick has ascended into the best QB in the league through two weeks, Patrick Mahomes looks like the next Aaron Rodgers, and the Browns held their own against the Saints. The Texans managed to lose to the Titans despite being the better team on the field. Week 3 is going to be an important week for a number of potential playoff teams and with two games under everyone’s belts, the better teams are going to start to gel.

Thursday 9/20/2018 8:20 pm

Jets vs Browns (-3)
Weather: 81 Degrees 8% chance of rain
The Browns defense through two weeks have played against the Steelers and the Saints, yet they’ve given up just 42 total points. The Jets defense has gone against the Lions and the Dolphins, giving up 37 total points. These two teams will be facing off on a short week in Cleveland. They are very similar on paper. Both quarterbacks play a conservative game, both rushing attacks use a heavy split among their running backs, and the defense is the strength of the team. The difference between these teams is the offensive line play. The Jets offensive line has been a little better so far. While the Browns have home field advantage, I ultimately think this game is close to a 50/50 matchup.

Pick: Jets +3 (Low Confidence), Score: CLE 17 – NYJ 16

Sunday 9/23/2018 1:00pm

Bills vs Vikings (-16.5)
Weather: Dome
Through two weeks the Bills have been arguably the worst team in the league (though the Cardinals are giving them a run for their money). The Vikings beat the 49ers pretty handily and while they tied the Packers, their now free agent rookie kicker cost them that game more than once. I did like what I saw from Josh Allen and I believe he’ll play a little better in Week 3. The Vikings should win this game by plenty (and are a great survivor pool pick), but 17 points is a tough number to give up. I fully expect the Vikings to win by 10 plus, but with some garbage time, I believe they can grab some late points to keep it within 17. With that said, the 17-point spread is a pretty fair number.

Pick: Bills +16.5 (Low Confidence), Score: MIN 27 – BUF 13

Giants vs Texans (-6)
Weather: Dome
Two teams who have started the year at 0-2 face off in Week 3. The Giants have faced arguably the best defense in the league in the Jaguars and an underrated defense in the Cowboys. The Texans made it close against the Patriots late but managed to lose to the Titans despite being the better team. The Texans have made key mistakes in both of their games this year and while they should clean that up over the course of the year, it’s not a guarantee in this one. The Giants haven’t played great behind this offensive line, but I expect them to be better as the year goes on. I do expect the Texans to win and have the firepower to blow the Giants out of the water, but I’m not ready to trust them to put it all together yet while the Giants get the passing game going against the weakest secondary they’ve faced to date.

Pick: Giants +6 (Low Confidence), Score: HOU 27 – NYG 23

Packers vs Redskins (+3)
Weather: 77 Degrees no chance of rain
The Packers are 1-0-1 with their tie to the Vikings in Week 2. Though I have to say that this defense has held up well over two weeks. The Redskins looked like a serious contender in the NFC East against the Cardinals, but then they blew it against the Colts in Week 2. The Packers are a far better team than the Colts and have been very scrappy in their first two games. The Redskins took advantage of one of the worst teams in the league through two weeks. The Redskins receivers have looked rough, hence they signed Breshad Perriman and Michael Floyd. Look for the Redskins offense to continue to struggle, while the Packers manage to move the ball against a decent Redskins defense (the weakest defense they’ve faced this year)

Pick: Packers -3 (Medium Confidence), Score: GB 27 – WAS 17

49ers vs Chiefs (-6.5)
Weather: 77 Degrees no chance of rain
The Chiefs and Patrick Mahomes have become one of the darling teams of the NFL over the past couple weeks. I’ve even had to start eating my words on Mahomes who is now on pace for 80 touchdown passes. I bring that up because this is clearly an unsustainable pace that will come back down to earth sooner rather than later. The Chiefs have benefited from going up against two defenses that were schematically not ready to play against them. I don’t believe that’s the case going forward, but I do still believe they win a close one against a good, not great, 49ers team.

Pick: 49ers +6.5 (Low Confidence), Score: KC 30 – SF 27

Raiders vs Dolphins (-3)
Weather: 88 Degrees 5% chance of rain
The Raiders did not look good in their debut against the Rams. In Week 2 they looked competent against a good Broncos defense but ultimately wore down in the end. The Dolphins are undefeated through two weeks, but the competition level has been nowhere near the same with wins against the Titans and Jets. The Dolphins do have home field advantage in what should be a fairly hot and humid game. All things considered, while the Dolphins don’t have any elite weapons in the passing game, they do have a variety of good receivers to get the ball to on any given play. Because of this and the Raiders thin secondary, I think the Dolphins can manage one extra touchdown against the Raiders to win this one at home.

Pick: Dolphins -3 (Low Confidence), Score: MIA 27 – OAK 20

Colts vs Eagles (-6.5)
Weather: 74 Degrees 2% chance of rain
Carson Wentz is on track to make his season debut for 2018. To start the year you would think this would be a great matchup to get yourself back into, but the Colts defense has been better than expected. Sure the Bengals put up some points on the Colts but we’ve seen them now also rock the Ravens. Wentz hasn’t played a meaningful football game in over nine months and has essentially missed most of the off-season. Because of this, expect Wentz to be rusty, while Andrew Luck and company will be able to do enough to keep it close. However, expect the Eagles defense to bounce back and keep them in the lead.

Pick: Colts +6.5 (Low Confidence), Score: PHI 23 – IND 20

Titans vs Jaguars (N/A)
Weather: 83 Degrees 11% chance of rain
How the Titans are now 1-1 is beyond me. The Texans were the better team in Week 2, but they still managed to lose. The Titans now go on the road to face arguably the best defense in the league in the Jaguars. So far the Titans have scored 20 points against both the Dolphins and Texans, but that trend is about to end. The Jaguars have shown they have a playmaker in Keelan Cole and are able to score with the best of them when they need to. The Titans really don’t have a matchup on offense that can exploit this Jaguars defense. Expect it to be a long day for this Titans offense. Keep an eye out for when the line is set on this one and if it’s at -7 or less, grab the Jaguars.

Pick: N/A, Score: JAX 24 – TEN 10

Bengals vs Panthers (-3)
Weather: 82 Degrees no chance of rain
The Bengals shocked just about everyone when they absolutely dominated the Ravens in Week 2. They now have 10 days to get ready for a Panthers team that has yet to look like a team on the same page. With that said the Panthers play much better at home, and despite the loss in Atlanta, we know the Falcons home field advantage is a good one. I don’t foresee the Bengals getting much of a running game going without Joe Mixon. Their offensive line has killed it in pass protection but hasn’t been the best in the run game. The flip side of this is the Panthers secondary doesn’t have anyone who can keep up with A.J. Green. I do think the Panthers manage to win this one, but by no means am I confident in it.

Pick: Bengals +3 (Low Confidence), Score: CAR 23 – CIN 20

Broncos vs Ravens (-5.5)
Weather: 78 Degrees 0% chance of rain
This is an interesting matchup as the two teams match up pretty well. The Broncos have the better offensive and defensive lines. The Ravens have the better secondary and running back play. I expect this game to be close and with the Ravens’ home field advantage they could very well win. However, I don’t see this Ravens offensive line being able to keep up with Von Miller and company while the Broncos offensive line should be able to get enough push in the run game and be able to protect Case Keenum long enough to get close to a victory.

Pick: Broncos +5.5 (Medium Confidence), Score: DEN 20 – BAL 17

Saints vs Falcons (-3)
Weather: Dome
The Saints have been slow starters over the first two weeks of the season in recent history, and it would seem that trend has continued into 2018. Week 3 has arrived, though, and they have a tough NFC South matchup on the road in Atlanta. While the Saints haven’t played their best football yet, the Falcons have also had their ups and downs, though are considerably better at home. The Falcons defense has been decimated by injuries and look to once again be without Devonta Freeman. The Saints are relatively healthy still and Alvin Kamara looks like he’ll be a matchup nightmare for the Falcons who don’t seem to have anyone who can cover him out of the backfield.

Pick: Saints +3 (Medium Confidence), Score: NO 30 – ATL 27

Sunday 9/16/2018 4:05pm

Chargers vs Rams (-7)
Weather: 85 Degrees no chance of rain
The Chargers are one of those teams I generally steer clear from in terms of picks against the spread. Rivers and company tend to be a high-variance team. Meaning some weeks they throw up a complete dud, but sometimes, when facing better competition, they step it up and play lights out. On paper, the Rams should win handily. The Chargers O-Line has not been great against some subpar defensive lines and now must face one of the best in the league. The Rams have had one of the best offensive lines in the game through two weeks, but they also haven’t been tested much. While the Chargers defense is a step above what the Rams have faced so far, they are by no means great with Joey Bosa still out.

Pick: Rams -7 (Low Confidence), Score: LAR 30 – LAC 20

Sunday 9/16/2018 4:25pm

Bears vs Cardinals (+5.5)
Weather: Dome
The Cardinals have been an abysmal team through two weeks. The offense has looked lost and the defense can only do so much. It doesn’t help that they’ve faced a decent defense in Washington, a stellar defense in the Rams and now in Week 3 they go up against a vaunted Bears defense. Sure the Cardinals are at home, but as we saw in Week 1, it doesn’t seem to matter much right now. Until I see this offense get a little more creative, I can’t back them to do much of anything against one of the league’s best defenses.

Pick: Bears -5.5 (High Confidence), Score: CHI 27 – ARI 10

Cowboys vs Seahawks (-1.5)
Weather: 63 Degrees 0% chance of rain
The Seahawks have played two very good defenses on the road to start the season and, at times, it has been tough to watch Russell Wilson run for his life. Well, Week 3 the Seahawks get to come home and while the Cowboys defense is good it’s not of the same caliber as Denver or Chicago. This Seahawks defense has been better than I had expected so far and I think they’re only going to get better. The Cowboys will have a tough time throwing the ball against the Seahawks and will have to rely greatly on Zeke who will be able to move the ball, but without a pass threat, it will be some tough sledding.

Pick: Seahawks -1.5 (Medium Confidence), Score: SEA 24 – DAL 17

Sunday 9/16/2018 8:20pm

Patriots vs Lions (+6.5)
Weather: Dome
The Patriots did not look good in Week 2, and I imagine they’ll be ready to go in Week 3. The Lions looked better at San Francisco, but they still aren’t a team ready to contend with the big dogs on a consistent basis. The biggest concern for the Lions is who’s going to cover Rob Gronkowski. None of their linebackers or safeties are particularly adept in coverage, so I imagine they’ll have to put a lot of double teams on him just to slow him down. This will open things up for the rest of the offense.

Pick: Patriots -6.5 (Low Confidence), Score: NE 33 – DET 24

Monday 9/17/2018 8:15pm

Steelers vs Buccaneers
Weather: 83 Degrees 11% chance of rain
The Steelers have played two games and in one the offense was putrid and in the other, the defense couldn’t stop leaking points if they tried. The Buccaneers have been one of the surprise teams through two weeks having beaten both the Saints and Eagles. The Steelers are only a -1 road favorite at this point, yet had this been Week 1 that line would have been significantly higher. In the past 30 years, the Steelers have gone winless through three weeks just twice. The last time the Buccaneers have started the season with three victories was 2005. The Buccaneers have been the better team so far, but I expect the Steelers to get this figured out in Week 3 to avoid remaining winless.

Pick: Steelers -1 (Medium Confidence), Score: PIT 37 – TB 31