Matthew Freedman’s NFL Week 3 Picks & Predictions: Jaguars vs. Chargers (2022)
Here is my breakdown for Jaguars vs. Chargers along with my top predictions and top picks.
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Matthew Freedman’s NFL Week 3 Picks & Predictions: Jaguars vs. Chargers
Jacksonville Jaguars at Los Angeles Chargers
Check out our Jaguars at Chargers matchup page.
- Kickoff: Sunday, Sept. 25, 2022, 4:05 pm ET
- Location: SoFi Stadium
- TV: CBS
Jaguars at Chargers: Consensus Lines
- Spread: Chargers -7
- Over/Under: 47.5
- Moneyline: Chargers -315, Jaguars +265
Jaguars at Chargers: Betting Percentages
Data from Action Network and as of Sept. 21.
- Spread: Jaguars – 48% bets, 94% money
- Over/Under: Under – 46% bets, 87% money
- Moneyline: Jaguars – 6% bets, 36% money
Jaguars at Chargers: Key Injuries
Jacksonville Jaguars: Week 3 Injury Report
No injuries.
Jacksonville Jaguars: IR, PUP & Out
- EDGE Jordan Smith (knee, IR): OUT
Los Angeles Chargers: Week 3 Injury Report
| Player | Position | Injury | Wed |
| J.C. Jackson | DB | Ankle | DNP |
| Corey Linsley | C | Knee | DNP |
| Keenan Allen | WR | Hamstring | LP |
| Justin Herbert | QB | Ribs | LP |
| Donald Parham | TE | Hamstring | LP |
| Trey Pipkins | OT | Foot | LP |
Los Angeles Chargers: IR, PUP & Out
- DT Forrest Merrill (undisclosed, IR): OUT
Jaguars at Chargers: Notable Trends
Data from Action Network and goes back to 2003. Abbreviations: Against the spread (ATS), return on investment (ROI), moneyline (ML).
Jacksonville Jaguars Trends
- HC Doug Pederson: 15-25 ATS (21.4% ROI for faders) on road
- East Coast Teams: 116-94-8 ATS (6.7% ROI) on West Coast for afternoon games
Los Angeles Chargers Trends
- Home Favorites: 24-15-1 ATS (19.6% ROI) after a Thursday Night Football road loss
Jaguars at Chargers: Team Statistics
Advanced data from RBs Don’t Matter and Football Outsiders. Basic stats from Pro Football Reference. Regular season only. Abbreviations: Expected Points Added (EPA), Success Rate (SR), Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA).
Jaguars Offense vs. Chargers Defense: 2022
| Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
| EPA per Play | 0.09 | 9 | -0.015 | 11 | 2 |
| Total SR | 46.0% | 12 | 44.1% | 14 | 2 |
| Total DVOA | 18.6% | 9 | -14.3% | 7 | -2 |
Jaguars Offense vs. Chargers Defense: 2021
| Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
| EPA per Play | -0.079 | 28 | 0.044 | 24 | -4 |
| Total SR | 44.0% | 19 | 46.8% | 27 | 8 |
| Total DVOA | -15.1% | 27 | 4.8% | 26 | -1 |
Chargers Offense vs. Jaguars Defense: 2022
| Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
| EPA per Play | 0.045 | 11 | -0.11 | 4 | -7 |
| Total SR | 47.8% | 6 | 36.9% | 2 | -4 |
| Total DVOA | 10.3% | 10 | -30.6% | 3 | -7 |
Chargers Offense vs. Jaguars Defense: 2021
| Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
| EPA per Play | 0.088 | 5 | 0.111 | 31 | 26 |
| Total SR | 47.4% | 5 | 47.0% | 28 | 23 |
| Total DVOA | 16.0% | 4 | 11.7% | 31 | 27 |
Jaguars at Chargers: Quarterback Statistics
Data from RBs Don’t Matter, Pro Football Reference, ESPN and NFElo. Abbreviations: Completion Percentage Over Expectation (CPOE), Adjusted Yards per Attempt (AY/A), Adjusted Total Quarterback Rating (QBR), Quarterback Elo Value (QB Elo). 2022 data: Min. 32 plays for EPA + CPOE & Air Yards. Min. 14 pass attempts per scheduled game for AY/A. Min. 20 action plays per game for QBR. 2021 data: Min. 200 plays for EPA + CPOE & Air Yards. Min. 14 pass attempts per scheduled game for AY/A. Min. 20 action plays per game for QBR.
2022: Trevor Lawrence
- EPA + CPOE: 0.185 (No. 4)
- AY/A: 7.3 (No. 10)
- QBR: 73.1 (No. 5)
- ATS Value vs. Average: -0.8 (No. 24)
2021: Trevor Lawrence
- EPA + CPOE: 0.009 (No. 35)
- AY/A: 5.2 (No. 32)
- QBR: 39.1 (No. 28)
- ATS Value vs. Average: -2.5 (No. 44)
Career: Trevor Lawrence
- AY/A: 5.4
- QB Elo per Game: -58.4
2022: Justin Herbert
- EPA + CPOE: 0.206 (No. 5)
- AY/A: 8.4 (No. 6)
- QBR: 70.6 (No. 8)
- ATS Value vs. Average: 3.3 (No. 3)
2021: Justin Herbert
- EPA + CPOE: 0.123 (No. 9)
- AY/A: 7.6 (No. 10)
- QBR: 70.9 (No. 3)
- ATS Value vs. Average: 3.3 (No. 5)
Career: Justin Herbert
- AY/A: 7.6
- QB Elo per Game: 79.2
Key Matchup: EDGEs Joey Bosa & Khalil Mack vs. LT Cam Robinson & RT Jawaan Taylor
This offseason, the Jaguars took steps to fortify the interior of their offensive line by drafting C Luke Fortner and signing RG Brandon Scherff. With those moves, QB Trevor Lawrence has seen significant year-over-year improvement.
But they still have LT Cam Robinson and RT Jawaan Taylor as their offensive line bookends, and they’re average. As plenty of teams know, having average tackles is better than having nothing at all — but average play won’t be good enough against EDGEs Joey Bosa and Khalil Mack. With those two leading the charge (#NailedIt), the Chargers defense is No. 7 with a 9.2% adjusted sack rate.
In our FantasyPros unit power rankings, the Chargers defensive line has a massive edge over the Jaguars offensive line, and that’s primarily because of Bosa and Mack, who already have six sacks this year.
| Rank | Defensive Line | Opp OL | OL Rank | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | LAC | JAC | 24 | 21 |
I expect to see Bosa and Mack combine for multiple sacks against the Jaguars.
Given that he got in a limited practice on Wednesday and has three extra days (from Thursday Night Football) to recover, I expect to Chargers QB Justin Herbert to play in Week 3.
And if he plays I think this line should be significantly higher. In the preseason, it was -10. In the lookahead market — before the Chargers played well against the Chiefs on TNF — it was -9.
The Jaguars’ 24-0 Week 2 over the Colts was impressive — but not enough to justify this move down to -7.
Best Line: Chargers -7 (-105, BetMGM)
First Recommended: Chargers -9 (-110)
Personal Projection: Chargers -9.5
Limit: Chargers -7.5
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