NFL Week 4 Composite Power Ratings (2024)
Each week, I compile power ratings from a bevy of respected sources across the NFL handicapping community. Power ratings are designed to identify how many points a team would be favored by against an average team on a neutral field. By calculating the difference in ratings between the two teams (and adjusting for home-field advantage), you can get a ratings-implied spread to compare to the actual spread. In the second section, I’ve done that while assuming a value of 1.5 points for home-field advantage and using the composite spread from all the sources. Additionally, I’ve provided some comments on trends and numbers that stood out to me.
Week 4 NFL Composite Power Ratings
- While they’re still the lowest-rated team in the league by the composite numbers, the Panthers made one of the biggest leaps of the week. Andy Dalton has given life to this Panthers team and they’ll be frisky in some games as long as he continues to start.
- The Jacksonville Jaguars are starting to look like the old Jaguars. At 0-3 to start the season, Jacksonville has yet to score more than 17 points in a game. Additionally, Trevor Lawrence looks like he’s still being coached by Urban Meyer with only Bryce Young, Deshaun Watson, and Mailk Willis having a worse success rate this year. Finally, Jacksonville ranks 29th in EPA per play allowed on defense. Doug Pederson is on the hot seat, if that’s any indication of where the Jaguars are at right now.
- One rating that sticks out to me is that of the Houston Texans who, with a 2.0-point standard deviation among the ratings is one of the more divisive teams. Entering the season, they were one of the hottest teams in the market in terms of the support they got. Based on how the rest of the division is playing out, it’s still very likely they are AFC South champions (as of writing they are -225 to win the AFC South on DraftKings). While their defense has played fine, ranking 14th and 17th in EPA per play and success rate allowed, respectively, it’s their offense that’s been a bit concerning. Currently, Houston ranks 26th in offensive success rate. CJ Stroud still ranks 11th in PFF passing grade, but hopefully, a lighter set of defenses in the next several weeks gets this team back on track.
Week 4 Matchups
- Tomorrow night the Cowboys visit their division-rival Giants as 6-point favorites. Last week, the Giants upset the Browns as 6.5-point underdogs, and I think they have the recipe to pull off another upset this week. Primarily, because the Giants’ defensive line is one of the best in the league, generating pressure at the 6th-highest rate in the league, and that was a key to their victory. Dallas’ offensive line is better than Cleveland’s, but not the top-tier unit that they used to be. I really like the Giants to keep this game closer than people might expect.
- Coming off of a dominant win on Monday Night Football, the Bills head to Baltimore as 2.5-point underdogs. The ratings suggest that the Bills should actually be slight favorites in this game despite having to travel on a short week. Though the final score didn’t necessarily reflect it, Baltimore also took care of business last week in a win over the aforementioned Cowboys. I side with the ratings here, though, and would take the Bills.