NFL Week 4 Early Lines vs. Line Movement Predictions (2022)
While Week 2 was all about wild finishes, Week 3 was all about upsets. The Dolphins and the Colts picked up huge home wins over the Bills and Chiefs, respectively, while the Jaguars went to Los Angeles and defeated the Chargers easily.
How will these upsets and others from around the league impact line movement in Week 4?
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Miami Dolphins at Cincinnati Bengals
The Dolphins have won back-to-back thrillers over two of the best teams in the NFL. The Bengals, on the other hand, finally picked up their first win of the season, though they didn’t look great despite the final score against the Jets. Yet, Cincinnati is favored by three at home on Thursday Night Football.
This feels like a letdown spot for the Dolphins, but will the public agree? Setting this right at the key number, it feels like Oddsmakers are content to bait bettors into taking the Dolphins, then lowering the line to give the Bengals the hook before kickoff.
Current Line: Bengals -3
Predicted Final Line: Bengals -2
Jacksonville Jaguars at Philadelphia Eagles
The Eagles are 3-0, and they look like one of the early favorites to win the NFC. Meanwhile, the Jaguars are 2-1, and they just pulled off a massive upset in Los Angeles over the Chargers. The Eagles are now favored by seven, but which way will this line move?
Early indications are that this line is too big for the public. Jalen Hurts has looked unstoppable so far this season, but the Jaguars may boast the best defense he has faced up to this point. In two weeks, they have given up just 10 points. If the defense can keep Hurts under control, then this could be a field goal game.
The public loves underdog stories, and the Jaguars are certainly a surprisingly good underdog this season. Look for that to affect this line.
Current Line: Eagles -7
Predicted Final Line: Eagles -5.5
Arizona Cardinals at Carolina Panthers
The Panthers ended a nine-game losing streak on Sunday, while the Cardinals struggled in their third consecutive game. Kliff Kingsbury made more than a few questionable coaching decisions in the loss, yet the Cardinals remain the more public team.
The Panthers have found themselves in defensive battles this season, and their offense has yet to come alive. The Cardinals haven’t shown much offensive promise either, but the feeling is that Kyler Murray is always just one play away from exploding. Look for this line to shift in favor of Arizona, as the Cardinals end the week as favorites.
Current Line: Panthers -1
Predicted Final Line: Cardinals -1
Denver Broncos at Las Vegas Raiders
The Broncos somehow found a way to win on Sunday night, even though they scored just 11 points. The offense has been terrible this season, scoring only three touchdowns in three games.
The Raiders, meanwhile, lost another heartbreaker, this time by two, to Tennessee. They are now 0-3, and with a loss this week, they could see their season all but over at the quarter mark.
The lack of offensive firepower for Denver, and the fact that this game is being played in Las Vegas, should move the line in favor of the Raiders. If you’re on the Broncos after their win over the 49ers, then you can likely wait to get in on this.
Current Line: Raiders -1.5
Predicted Final Line: Raiders -2.5
Kansas City Chiefs at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Sunday Night Football is a doozy this week, with the Chiefs and Buccaneers meeting in Tampa. The Buccaneers nearly pulled off a home comeback against the Packers, but their two-point conversion attempt failed, dropping to 2-1 on the season. Meanwhile, the Chiefs dropped a shocker against the Colts in a game that featured a very suspicious line from Oddsmakers.
The Bucs’ offense hasn’t been terrible this season, but it certainly hasn’t been what many anticipated. Through three weeks, they have scored just 51 points, while the Chiefs scored 44 in Week 1.
However, the Bucs will get Mike Evans back this week, and it’s unlikely that bettors will bet on Tom Brady losing back-to-back games at home, even if those games are against Rodgers and Mahomes.
Current Line: Chiefs -3
Predicted Final Line: Chiefs -2
Los Angeles Rams at San Francisco 49ers
Last season, the 49ers went 3-0 against the spread and 2-1 straight up against the Rams. In all three meetings last year, the Rams were favored by 3.5 points.
Despite losing an ugly football game against Denver, the 49ers are 1.5-point home favorites this week. However, Jimmy Garoppolo really struggled on Sunday night, and if this game turns into a shootout, then the Rams have a clear advantage.
Even if it remains a low-scoring game, the Rams still may have the advantage, as their pass rush could wreak havoc on Garoppolo. The 49ers’ offense has struggled this season, and though the Rams haven’t been great, they are the better team at the moment.
Look for bettors to back the Super Bowl champs, even though they haven’t had much regular season success against the 49ers of late.
Current Line: 49ers -1.5
Predicted Final Line: Pick ‘em
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Phil Wood is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Phil, check out his archive and follow him @Phil_Wood_Jr.