NFL Week 4 Odds, Picks & Predictions (2024)
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NFL Week 4 Odds, Picks & Predictions
Saints vs. Falcons
Drew Dalman and Kaleb McGary news have dominated the week for the Falcons. Dalman was placed in IR and won’t play, meanwhile McGary is day to day. If McGary plays, that could be huge for a Falcons offensive line that needs to help establish the run. They’ll take on the Saints who fell back down to earth after two huge wins over the Panthers and Cowboys. They managed only 219 yards of offense against the Eagles and could have some problems against a Falcon defense that did well to limit the Eagles and Chiefs offenses. With a patchwork offensive line, the Falcons could have a hard time scoring but their defense could do enough to slow down what was a strong offense the first two weeks. Divisional games tend to trend to the under and this is a matchup that fits the mold.
Pick: Under 42
- Ryan Rodeman
Rams vs. Bears
The Rams and Bears will square off on Sunday in Chicago. The Rams have been up and down all season. They’ve had a ton of injuries already this year but they’ve been finding ways to be competitive against playoff hopefuls Detroit and San Francisco. They’ll get a very strong defense in Chicago on Sunday. By DVOA ranks the Bears are eighth in the league and sixth against the pass. This could be enough to slow down Matthew Stafford and the Rams offense. On the other side of the ball the Chicago offense has been putrid. They’ve ranked dead last in DVOA and it took until last week for QB Caleb Williams to record a passing touchdown. Their 249.3 yards per game on offense pace only the Browns and Patriots. This team isn’t equipped to take advantage of a soft Rams defense. Both matchups here favor the defense and that is a recipe for an under.
Pick: Under 41
- Ryan Rodeman
Vikings vs. Packers
It’s early in the season but this is a massive divisional game between the 3-0 Vikings and the 2-1 Packers. Green Bay is expected to welcome back their starting QB Jordan Love in this matchup but it’s a tough defense to return from injury against. Minnesota has been the best defense in the league through three weeks based on DVOA and they’ve made QBs like Brock Purdy and CJ Stroud look uncomfortable. If Love isn’t fully healthy, he could be made uncomfortable too. The Packer defense has looked strong the last two weeks but they’ve played the Colts and Titans who aren’t world beaters on the offensive side of the ball. Against a competent offense like Philadelphia they actually played well. Although Philadelphia scored 34 points and gained 410 yards of offense, they only averaged 5.5 yards per play. This Green Bay defense has proven they’re as good as nearly any in the league. For a divisional game, this is a high total and one where the under is certainly in play.
Pick: Under 44
- Ryan Rodeman
Steelers vs. Colts
The Steelers are one of the more pleasant surprises of the season as one of the few remaining undefeated teams heading into this week’s game in Indianapolis. Their defense has been stellar, holding opponents to 229 yards of offense and 8.7 points per game, which is good since their offense is not very productive. But Justin Field is getting better each week. Against a Colts defense giving up 179 yards per game on the ground, they’ll probably lean hard on the run game. However, after watching Caleb Williams throw for 300+ yards on the Colts last week. As for the Colts, they need to lean hard on Jonathan Taylor while Anthony Richardson cleans up his game. But against the Steelers defense, don’t expect much out of the Colts offense.
Pick: Steelers -2
- Travis Pulver
Broncos vs. Jets
After a couple tough outings for the Denver offense, they finally got some things going last week against the Buccaneers. They managed 352 yards of offense and rookie QB Bo Nix looked great throwing for 216 yards and adding another 47 on the ground. Their reward for a strong performance? A matchup with an elite Jets defense. However, DVOA would indicate the defense might be closer to middle of the pack, ranked 11th, just two spots ahead of Denver. Meanwhile, the Jets’ offense is middle of the pack, averaging 310.3 yards per game. This Denver defense is capable of slowing the Jets down enough to keep this one close and cover the spread.
Pick: Broncos +7.5
- Ryan Rodeman
Eagles vs. Buccaneers
Something’s got to give in this matchup, and a couple key injuries may have the answer. The Eagles have the second most passing yards in the league through three games but are going to be without their two best wide receivers in A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith. Tampa Bay has yet to give up a touchdown through the air and based on the aforementioned injuries, that may continue Sunday. Expect a heavy dose of Saquon Barkley and Jalen Hurts on the ground when Philadelphia has the ball. The Bucs offense looked pedestrian against the Broncos in a 26-7 loss last week but look for them to rebound at home.
Pick: Tampa Bay +1.5
- Tom Stad
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Bengals vs. Panthers
How many people thought the Panthers would have a better than record than the Bengals going into this matchup? Cincinnati slipped to 0-3 after a Monday night loss to Washington, and now it must travel on a short week, albeit a small distance, to battle the Panthers. Carolina gained some confidence with a win over the Las Vegas Raiders on the road in Week 3. The Panthers looked like a new team with veteran QB Andy Dalton taking the reins of the offense from benched QB Bryce Young. Carolina scored 13 points in two games under Young, but managed 36 in a 14-point win over the Raiders. The defense is still a problem for Carolina, but it received longer stretches of rest with the offense on the field more. That helped that unit immensely. However, a visit from an angry Joe Burrow, Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins is going to be a test the Panthers are going to struggle against in Week 4. Back the road side laying the points.
Pick: Bengals -4.5
- Daniel Dobish
Jaguars vs. Texans
Hopes were high for both teams coming into the 2024 season, but the two division rivals are headed in decidedly different directions. Trevor Lawrence and the Jaguars offense has sputtered at every turn on the way to an 0-3 start. Houston was dominated by the Vikings last week but has otherwise played well. However, the Texans offense looked its best when the run game worked, and with Joe Mixon likely out again this week, they might struggle to run the ball again. Penalties have been an issue for Houston the last two weeks (23 total). Houston's defense will play a significant role in this game, keeping Lawrence from getting the Jags offense from getting on track. If the Texans can keep from stabbing themselves in the foot with penalties, the offense should have a solid day against a poor Jags defense.
Pick: Texans -6.5
- Travis Pulver
Commanders vs. Cardinals
Rookie sensation Jaylen Daniels put on a show Monday night in a 38-33 win over Cincinnati. The #2 pick has looked excellent in the first three games of the year but can he handle traveling cross country on a short week? Daniels may feel like he’s looking in a mirror when he takes the field Sunday. Kyler Murray looks to be back in top form for the Cardinals. The 27-year old signal caller has thrown for five touchdowns and generated over 250 yards of total offense per game so far this year. The desert heat, long travel distance on a short week for Arizona proves to be too much to overcome for Washington this week.
Pick: Cardinals -3.5
- Tom Stad
Patriots vs. 49ers
49ers head coach Kyle Shanahan must be wondering what he did to deserve this. His star running back went to Germany for a second opinion on his knee injury. His “do everything” wideout Deebo Samuel is out a month or more with a calf injury, and his fantastic tight end is questionable with a pulled hamstring. San Francisco now sits at 1-2 and has to travel across the country to face a Patriots club that, before last week was extremely competitive. New England look listless in a 24-3 loss to the Jets last Thursday night. Returning to the friendly confines of Gillette Stadium should inject some life back in this team. With the lack of offensive weapons for San Francisco and the ball control style the Patriots seem to be favoring, don’t expect a lot of points in Foxboro Sunday.
Pick: Under 40.5
- Tom Stad
Browns vs. Raiders
These two teams are a mess. Cleveland was embarrassed at home by the New York Giants, 21-15, falling as a 6.5-point favorite. The Browns are now 0-2 at home, although they did scratch out an 18-13 win on the road in Jacksonville in Week 2. As a favorite, they’re also 0-2 ATS, but as an underdog they’re 1-0 ATS. For the Raiders, they let the lowly Carolina Panthers come in and push them around, falling 36-22 as a 5.5-point favorite at Allegiant Stadium in the home opener. That washed away all of the good feelings it had from an overtime road victory in Baltimore in Week 2 as an 8.5-point underdog. Things looked like they were turning around after the Baltimore win, but now it’s back to square one for Antonio Pierce. Gardner Minshew was benched in the second half, and there were questions on whether a QB change was coming. Minshew is back, but on a short leash, with Aidan O’Connell waiting in the wings. Cleveland is banged up on the offense line, and at key defensive spots, too. Side with the Raiders to find a way to get it done at home, but it could be a lower-scoring game.
Pick: Raiders -1.5
- Daniel Dobish
Chiefs vs. Rams
The Chargers still need to determine their quarterback situation. Justin Herbert is recovering from an ankle injury and told the media he'll do everything he can to play the game. But even if Herbert plays, he clearly won't be 100%. The Chargers will likely run the ball as much as possible to keep the pressure off Herbert. That said, if Herbert can't go, the Chargers at least have an experienced backup in Taylor Heinicke. On the other hand, the Chiefs might be 3-0, but they haven't looked nearly as good as in other seasons. Patrick Mahomes has thrown five touchdowns but four interceptions through three games this season. Kansas City has also won all three games by one possession. The opposition had the ball with a chance to win all three times. So far this season, the Chargers have held opponents to 11 points per game, and with expectations that the offense will be weak, the Under 39.5 (-105) is calling my name.
Pick: Under 39.5
- Jason Radowitz