NFL Player Prop Bets Odds, Picks & Predictions: Fitz’s Week 4 Favorites (2022)
The prop bet market is a soft one. The sportsbooks know this, which is why we pay 15% juice on most winning player prop bets rather than the standard 10% with winning bets on lines and totals.
Therefore, last week’s .500 performance qualifies as a severe disappointment. The Week 3 props recommended here went 3-3, and one of the wins — Michael Carter under 39.5 rushing yards — squeaked through by a half-yard. (Hey, just win, baby.)
Let’s get the momentum back in Week 4, Here’s what I like.
- Last week: 3-3
- Season record: 13-6
All odds are courtesy of DraftKings, as of early Thursday afternoon.
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Kirk Cousins UNDER 259.5 passing yards
Let’s start with an early-morning bet to track in the London game while we enjoy a full English breakfast. (Blood pudding is highly underrated, but hold the tomato that comes with that full English breakfast, please.) I’ll set aside my subjective opinion that Cousins isn’t very good and just stick with the numbers. Cousins is averaging 252.7 yards per game, though he’s cleared this number in two of three games. But the opponent is the key to this bet. The Saints have been a run funnel this season, with opponents running the ball on 50.8% of their offensive snaps. The Saints are allowing 191.7 passing yards per game and just 6.3 yards per pass attempt. It’s possible RB Dalvin Cook’s shoulder injury incentivizes the Vikings to throw more, but it’s also possible that Saints QB Jameis Winston misses this game with a back injury, and it’s highly unlikely the Vikings would need to get into a shootout if they’re facing Saints backup Andy Dalton.
Josh Allen OVER 284.5 passing yards
After winning an over bet on Josh Allen passing yardage last week, let’s go right back to the well. This one seems too easy, quite frankly. Allen threw for 400 yards against the Dolphins last week, although that was largely because the Bills ran 92 plays on offense, most of them while trailing. Still Allen hasn’t thrown for fewer than 297 yards in any of his three starts this season. The Bills won two of those games comfortably, so it’s not as if Allen has benefitted from pass-friendly game scripts every week. Now, he’s facing a pass-funnel Baltimore defense. Opponents have thrown against the Ravens on a league-high 70.1% of their offensive snaps. The Ravens have given up 366.3 passing yards per game. Even if you discount Tua Tagovailoa’s 461-yard day against them, the Ravens have allowed 297 and 302 passing yards in their other two games.
Derek Carr UNDER 1.5 TD passes
I generally hate betting TD totals for quarterbacks. I’m making an exception here because I like the +105 I’m getting on this bet. Carr has thrown two TD passes in each of his first three games, but the dude just isn’t a prolific touchdown producer. In 130 career starts, he’s averaged 1.53 TD passes. Carr is up against the Broncos this week, and in 15 career starts against the Broncos, he’s thrown multiple TD passes only five times. The Denver pass defense has been excellent so far, yielding three TD passes in three games.
J.K. Dobbins UNDER 38.5 rushing yards
The Ravens handled Dobbins with kid gloves in his first game back from a knee injury. Giving him 27 snaps and eight carries in their Week 3 win over the Patriots. Dobbins turned his eight carries into 23 rushing yards. Meanwhile, backup RB Justice Hill looked terrific against New England, rushing six times for 60 yards and potentially earning a greater share of the rushing load in Week 4 and beyond. The Ravens face a Bills run defense that is allowing a league-low 47.0 rushing yards per game to opposing RBs, and it’s unlikely that the Ravens suddenly let Dobbins handle more than 10-12 carries.
Breece Hall OVER 38.5 rushing yards
Hall’s takeover of the Jets backfield has begun. After being out-snapped by incumbent starter Michael Carter in the first two games of the season, Hall out-snapped Carter 40-38 in Week 3. Carter is a useful player, but Hall is special, and I think the snaps and carries will continue to tilt in his favor. Hall had only 39 rushing yards against the Bengals last weekend, largely because the Jets fell into a big hole early and abandoned the running game. They’re only 3-point underdogs vs. the Steelers this week, so the Jets should have a run-friendlier game script, and Hall will be facing a soft Pittsburgh run defense that gave up the second-most rushing yards to opposing RBs last season and has allowed the 10th-most this season. I think this game will be Hall’s coming-out party, his debutante ball.
Christian Kirk OVER 59.5 receiving yards
Dare we say that Christian Kirk is worth the four-year, $72 million contract he signed with the Jaguars in the offseason? He’s been terrific so far, with 18 catches for 267 yards and three touchdowns. He’s had six receptions in all three of his games so far. He’s averaging 9.0 targets and 89.0 receiving yards per game, and he’s 3-for-3 in clearing this number this year. Kirk has been lined up in the slot for a majority of his snaps, and when he’s lined up in the slot against the Eagles on Sunday, he’ll avoid the coverage of the Eagles’ two fine outside cornerbacks, Darius Slay and James Bradberry.
Amari Cooper OVER receiving 59.5 yards
After a quiet 3-17-0 stat line in Week 1, Cooper has posted 101 receiving yards in each of his last two games. He saw 10 targets in Week 2, 11 targets in Week 3, and has racked up 16 receptions over that two-game span. Cooper should continue to earn a big target share in a Cleveland with few if any other credible threats at wide receiver. This week, he faces an Atlanta defense that has two pretty good outside cornerbacks in A.J. Terrell and Casey Hayward but is nevertheless allowing 195 receiving yards per game to opposing wideouts.
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