NFL Week 4 Same Game Parlay Odds, Picks & Predictions (2022)
Each week, Iâll be providing my favorite Sunday parlay, along with my favorite same-game parlay options for each game. Without further ado, here are this weekâs parlay picks.
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Week 4 parlay
- Over 47 points in Cleveland-Atlanta
- Arizona Cardinals +102
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers -105
- Odds: +660
This is admittedly not my favorite NFL betting card of the season. But these are the three plays I feel the most confident in on the board. The Falcons defense is yielding six yards per play and have given up the 7th-most points in the league through three games. Clevelandâs run game should be in store for a big day against a Falcons defense allowing 4.8 yards per attempt. However, the Browns could be without several key defensive starters Sunday, most notably Myles Garrett. The Falcons offense has been a respectable unit thus far and should get on the board against a Browns defense that isnât at full strength.
Backing Kliff Kingsbury is a scary proposition. However, the Cardinals have more talent offensively and a blitz-heavy defense that should rattle Baker Mayfield, who has been arguably the worst quarterback in the NFL this season. And believe it or not, the Cards are 14-4-1 ATS as a road underdog under Kingsbury. With such a short number, Iâll take the Cardinals.
And speaking of trends, how about Tom Brady after a loss. Brady is 43-16 against the spread following a straight up loss and 7-2 in Tampa in that exact situation. The Chiefs offense just doesnât feel the same without Tyreek Hill. With no true deep threat, Iâd expect the Buccaneers defense to attack Patrick Mahomes and force him into a dink and dunk thrower. The Buccaneers offense is still in a rough place, but Mike Evans returning at least will help. Iâll back the Bucs at home to get it done.
Minnesota Vikings -3 at New Orleans Saints (in London) Total 43.5
- Leg 1: Under 43.5
- Leg 2: Chris Olave over 38.5 receiving yards
- Leg 3: Alexander Mattison over 17.5 rushing yards
- Odds: +540
This has the makings of an ugly game in London. Andy Dalton will start for the Saints with Jameis Winston injured. The Saints will also be without Michael Thomas, which could open the door to a breakout game from Olave. For Minnesota, Dalvin Cook is expected to play, but Iâd expect this to be more of a timeshare to limit Cookâs opportunities to worsen the injury. This wonât be the prettiest game to wake up to Sunday morning.
Buffalo Bills -3 at Baltimore Ravens, Total 51
- Leg 1: Ravens +3
- Leg 2: Josh Allen under 38 pass attempts
- Leg 3: Lamar Jackson under 31.5 pass attempts
- Odds: +571
I know, betting against these two marquee quarterbacks isnât fun. But I have a reason. The weather in Baltimore on Sunday does not look to be⦠conducive for passing. With lingering conditions from Tropical Storm Ian affecting the area, the forecast is calling for rain and most importantly sustained winds at 17 MPH with gusts up to 43 MPH. The weather could force this game to become a ground game, which gives Baltimore a sizable advantage. The Ravens are more built for games like this than Buffalo. Iâm still not convinced Buffalo can win a game on the ground, so give me the Ravens at anything above a field goal.
Cleveland Browns -1 at Atlanta Falcons, Total 47
- Leg 1: Over 47
- Leg 2: Nick Chubb over 89.5 rushing yards
- Leg 3: Marcus Mariota over 218.5 passing yards
- Odds: +561
Like I mentioned above, Iâm expecting points in this matchup. Atlantaâs defense has struggled all year, while Cleveland will enter this game with some significant injuries defensively. Nick Chubb should be in store for a massive day against a generous Falcons front seven. The key will be Mariota, who Iâm banking on a big performance from. The Falcons could be trailing most of this game, which will result in Mariota tossing it to Drake London and Kyle Pitts more often.
Chicago Bears at New York Giants -3, Total 39.5
- Leg 1: Under 39.5 points
- Leg 2: Justin Fields under 149 passing yards
- Leg 3: Saquon Barkley over 80.5 rushing yards
- Odds: +578
Have you seen both of these offenses? Points will be at a premium in a battle between Daniel Jones and Justin Fields. I wouldâve added a Bears running back prop, but they arenât on the board as we await news on David Montgomeryâs status. Instead, Iâll continue to fade Justin Fields, who clearly hasnât earned the trust of his coaching staff and will face a Wink Martindale defense that will blitz him aggressively. Lastly, Barkey should find plenty of success on the ground against a Bears defense allowing 4.8 yards per carry. He rushed for 81 against a fierce Cowboys defense, I think heâll hit that mark again.
Jacksonville Jaguars at Philadelphia Eagles -6.5, Total 45.5
- Leg 1: Christian Kirk over 60 receiving yards
- Leg 2: Jalen Hurts over 49.5 rushing yards
- Odds: +242
This is admittedly a game I donât have a great feel for. However, I like Kirkâs matchup against a Philadelphia secondary that primarily plays zone coverage. Kirk earned his contract from Jacksonville because of his ability to find soft pockets in zones, and I expect him to have another good day. With gusty winds expected in Philly thanks to Hurricane Ian, Iâd expect this to be more of a rushing day for Hurts. If I had to take a side, Iâd probably take the points with the Jags. But I donât love it.
Seattle Seahawks at Detroit Lions -4, Total 48
- Leg 1: Over 48
- Leg 2: Jared Goff over 260.5 passing yards
- Leg 3: Tyler Lockett over 62.5 receiving yards
- Odds: +529
Both of these defenses are surrendering over 5 yards per play, and I expect both teams to successfully drive the field throughout the afternoon. Seattleâs secondary is one of the weakest in the league, which means Goff could thrive in a game where he wonât have DâAndre Swift in the backfield. As for Lockett, I feel more comfortable taking his over yardage prop, as D.K. Metcalf could be shadowed by cornerback Jeff Okudah throughout the day. Okudah is really good, but the rest of Detroitâs secondary isnât.
Tennessee Titans at Indianapolis Colts -3.5, Total 43
- Leg 1: Jonathan Taylor over 94.5 rushing yards
- Leg 2: Indianapolis Colts -3.5
- Odds: +259
This could be the big Taylor game weâve been waiting for. The Titans are allowing a whopping 5.8 yards per attempt this season. Frank Reich has done a poor job this season, but even he knows he should feed his stud tailback in this matchup. I donât love much else in this game. However, I do think the Titans are getting too much credit for beating a Raiders team that couldnât get out of its own way last week. Tennessee is still only two weeks removed from embarrassing itself at Buffalo. And while Iâve heard plenty of positive sentiment for the Titans, this line only continues to go up. Iâll lay it with the Colts.
New York Jets at Pittsburgh Steelers -3.5, Total 41.5
- Leg 1: Under 41.5 points
- Leg 2: Najee Harris under 67.5 rushing yards
- Leg 3: Michael Carter over 1.5 receptions
- Odds: +471
This is another matchup between two lousy offenses and quarterbacks. Mitch Trubisky flat out stinks, while Zach Wilson has a lot of proving to do. I expect this game to go under. Speaking of unders, Harris has failed to eclipse this yardage total in each of his first three games. Now heâll go up against a Jets defense yielding just 3.7 yards per carry. Carter had 12 receptions in his first two games before catching just one last week. This feels like a good buy low spot, as Wilson could be scrambling and checking down for his life considering the offensive line he has in front of him.
Washington Commanders at Dallas Cowboys -3, Total 41.5
- Leg 1: Commanders +3
- Leg 2: Carson Wentz to throw an interception -178
- Odds: +198
Another game I donât have a great feel for. However, the Cowboys are coming off an emotional divisional win and enter this game on a short week. Eventually, I think Cooper Rushâs run will come to an end. Granted, that means Carson Wentz needs to not ruin the game against an aggressive Cowboys defense, which is why Iâm so hesitant about taking a side in this one. So why donât we get the best of both worlds and parlay a Commanders cover with a likely Wentz mistake. Letâs just hope Wentz limits it to one INT.
Los Angeles Chargers -5 at Houston Texans, Total 45
- Leg 1: Under 45
- Leg 2: Austin Ekeler over 54.5 rushing yards
- Odds: +246
This is another game where the value is pretty much gone in terms of the number. If you got Houston +7, congratulations. Thereâs also a ton of uncertainty on Los Angeles, given their injury concerns, so the prop menu was limited. I suspect the Chargers will look to just get out of Houston with a win and good health. To do so, I think theyâll rely more heavily on Austin Ekeler against a Texans run defense yielding 5.6 yards per attempt. The Chargers wonât have stud Joey Bosa, but they have enough talent to hold a pedestrian Texans offense at bay. Houstonâs defensive identity is to prevent big plays, so any points scored by the Chargers will come off long drives.
Arizona Cardinals at Carolina Panthers -1, Total 43.5
- Leg 1: Cardinals +102
- Leg 2: Baker Mayfield to throw an interception +102
- Odds: +308
This game has a bit of uncertainty as we await the news on Christian McCaffreyâs status. However, the Cardinals are the play whether McCaffrey goes or not. Arizona blitzes at one of the highest rates in the league, and should force Mayfield into at least one mistake. Mayfield has simply been awful in Carolina and I donât take much out of Carolinaâs victory over the Saints last week.
New England Patriots at Green Bay Packers -9.5, Total 40
- Leg 1: Patriots +9.5
- Leg 2: Rhamondre Stevenson over 9.5 rush attempts
- Odds: +227
This is another really ugly game that I donât want much part of. I would prefer the Patriots at double digits, but backing Brian Hoyer on the road is only for the brave. With Mac Jones most likely out, I think New England will emphasize the ground game, which means both Damien Harris and Stevenson could see a ton of work. Iâm taking Stevenson because his prop was lower.
Denver Broncos at Las Vegas Raiders -2.5, Total 45.5
- Leg 1: Raiders -2.5
- Leg 2: Josh Jacobs under 2.5 receptions
- Leg 3: Russell Wilson over 239.5 passing yards
- Odds: +507
This is an all-in spot for the Raiders, who could arguably be 3-0 instead of 0-3. Iâd expect a sharp game plan from Josh McDaniels, who will have a rare coaching advantage over Nathaniel Hackett. Denverâs offense still has to prove it to me before Iâm backing them. As for Jacobs, his five-catch performance last week has this number a bit inflated. I do think the Broncos will get their passing game going against a Raiders defense allowing 7.2 yards per pass attempt.
Kansas City Chiefs at Tampa Bay Buccaneers -1, Total 45.5
- Leg 1: Buccaneers -105
- Leg 2: Clyde Edwards-Helaire under 36.5 rushing yards
- Leg 3: Tom Brady under 275.5 passing yards
- Leg 4: Patrick Mahomes under 271.5 passing yards
- Odds: +1148
If you couldnât tell, I think defense will be the storyline in this Sunday night matchup. The best unit in this game might actually be Tampaâs defense. And with no Tyreek Hill to worry about, I expect Todd Bowles to be even more aggressive in shutting down the middle of the field and attacking Patrick Mahomes with exotic blitzes. Mahomes actually hasnât cleared this prop since Week 1, and this is the toughest defense heâll face so far. As for Brady, Iâm still worried about this Bucs offense even with Mike Evans returning. The offensive line is still a concern, and I think the Buccaneers will be more balanced. All that being said, I am trusting the Bucs defense to score a big win in a Super Bowl rematch.
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