NFL Week 4 Teaser Odds, Picks & Predictions (2023)

by Kurt Blakeway |
Sep 30, 2023

One popular way bettors try to find value on NFL lines is by playing teasers. An NFL teaser is similar to a parlay; you add multiple legs that must all win for the bet to pay out. The key difference from parlays is that a teaser allows you to buy points like 6, 6.5, or 7 in a direction that lowers risk.

Teaser Tips to Follow

Never Cross over 0
Tease through two key numbers, ideally 3 & 7.
Tease games with lower totals, ideally anything 49 or less.

Below are three teaser options for Week 4, along with my Best Bet.

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Week 4 Teaser Options

Philadelphia Eagles from -8.5 to -2.5 vs. Washington Commanders

Sam Howell has been sacked 19 times through the first three weeks. That puts him on pace to be sacked 102 times, shattering the record of when David Carr was sacked 76 times in 2002.

Unfortunately for Howell, it won’t get any easier this week as they host the Philadelphia Eagles. The Commanders’ offense has turned the ball over eight times, the second most in the league, while the Eagles’ defense has forced eight turnovers, again 2nd most in the league. That seems like a recipe for disaster for Sam Howell and the Commanders.

Baltimore Ravens from +2.5 to +8.5 vs. Cleveland Browns

The Browns’ defense is off to a historic start, leading almost every defensive metric possible, but facing Lamar Jackson and the Ravens’ offense will be its toughest challenge yet.

The look-ahead number here had the Ravens favored; after some recency bias, the line flipped to the Browns, now a 2.5-point favorite.

While Cleveland’s defense should be able to contain Lamar, Cleveland’s offensive inconsistencies make me worried. Despite a strong showing last week, they faced a Titans team that ranked 26th in defensive EPA/play, while the Ravens sit with the 6th best.

Lamar Jackson has only lost to the Browns by more than 8.5 points once in his career. This game will be a one-score game.

Dallas Cowboys from -6.5 to -0.5 vs. New England Patriots

I think there is a ton of recency bias cooked into this line. Let’s remember, just one week ago, some people in the media had the Dallas Cowboys back to being America’s Team, crowning them one of the best teams in the NFL. In the first two weeks, they outscored both New York teams 70-10.

One thing Dallas can do is bounce back after a loss. Last season, the Cowboys were 5-0 SU and ATS after a loss.

We would need an outright win after teasing the Cowboys down to -0.5.

Honorable Mention

Miami Dolphins from +2.5 to +8.5 vs. Buffalo Bills.

We all know how explosive the Dolphins’ offense can be. Let’s not forget about the Bills. The Bills average 30.3 points per game, second in the league behind Miami. Miami kept both games in Buffalo last year within three points, and we may see another one-score game. There is too much volatility to make this an option for myself. Play with caution.

Best Bet: Week 4 6-pt teaser

Eagles -2.5 / Cowboys -0.5 (-120 odds)

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