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NFL Week 5 Anytime TD Scorer Picks & Predictions (2024)

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Last week I went 5-7 on my Anytime Touchdown bets, but only hit one First Touchdown bet. The result was a marginal profit of +0.2 units. Still, it beats the alternative.

Below are my favorite anytime touchdown and first touchdown picks for all 11 games on Sunday's main slate, including the London game.

As always, I am tracking these using bet sizes of 0.4 units on anytime touchdown and 0.1 units on first touchdown. Use your discretion and adjust as you see fit. We compare anytime touchdown stats to prop bet odds and projections to help identify this week's best bets.

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Best NFL Week 5 Anytime TD Scorer Prop Bets

(All wagers are 0.5 units)

New York Jets at Minnesota Vikings

Tyler Conklin

We are coming out of the gate swinging in Week 5. There are a couple of factors that went into this pick. First and foremost, the game between the New York Jets and Minnesota Vikings features two of the best defenses in the NFL. New York has allowed 30 points and three total touchdowns over their last three games. Minnesota allowed 30 points and three total touchdowns over their first three games before giving up 29 points last week. But that is a bit skewed because the Vikings got up big early and went into a defensive shell at times. With two elite defenses squaring off, I wanted to go with a longer shot.

Tyler Conklin has run the most routes (140) of any tight end playing on Sunday. Minnesota has allowed both George Kittle and Tucker Kraft to score against them in recent weeks. Both tight ends also had at least six catches and 50 yards against the Vikings. I do not expect Conklin to have that level of volume. However, given the favorable matchup as well as the odds, I think this is worth a shot. Besides, Week 5 features no shortage of revenge narratives, so let's throw another log onto that fire and take Tyler Conklin to score on Sunday.

Miami Dolphins at New England Patriots

Tyreek Hill

This game features two teams spinning their wheels offensively. Miami has not scored a touchdown in two games since losing quarterback Tua Tagovailoa. And New England has only scored four touchdowns this season, including just one across their last two games. As bad as Miami has looked, I think there is some value with Tyreek Hill in this matchup. New England ranks 28th in pass defense defense-adjusted value over average (DVOA) and is pressuring the quarterback at a league-low 25% clip. That should help give Tyler Huntley time to throw downfield. Hill is too talented to be held down forever. I think he could get loose for a score in this matchup.  

Carolina Panthers at Chicago Bears

Chuba Hubbard

I was very tempted to keep the revenge narrative going by picking DJ Moore here. But I prefer the relative value we are getting on Panthers running back Chuba Hubbard. Since the team inserted Andy Dalton at quarterback two weeks ago, Hubbard has averaged 145 total yards per game. He has also scored in each of those two contests. The Chicago Bears enter this matchup ranked fourth in the NFL in pass defense DVOA, but just 30th against the run. This should lead to more opportunities for Hubbard. Hubbard has 11 red zone touches through four weeks, while no other Panther has more than two. I like Hubbard to get into the end zone in this game.

Indianapolis Colts at Jacksonville Jaguars

Brian Thomas Jr.

There are a few sportsbooks that have not yet put out anytime touchdown and first touchdown pricing for the game between Indianapolis and Jacksonville. I suspect that this is because Colts quarterback Anthony Richardson is questionable for Sunday. As always, you should do your due diligence on pricing before locking anything in. For now, though, I do like the price on Jaguars rookie wide receiver Brian Thomas Jr.

Indianapolis plays zone coverage at the third-highest rate (79.9 percent) in the NFL. Thomas Jr. has been by far Jacksonville's most productive receiver against this defense. He has 225 receiving yards against zone. Christian Kirk and Gabe Davis have combined for 208. Thomas has earned nine targets in each of the last two games and should continue to be featured in Jacksonville's passing attack. Given the uptick in usage and favorable matchup, Thomas Jr. is my preferred anytime touchdown/first touchdown pick here.

Buffalo Bills at Houston Texans

Stefon Diggs

Stefon Diggs has scored three touchdowns and has 35 opportunities (targets plus carries) in four games this season. He has performed well versus zone coverage and is facing a team that plays that defense at the ninth-highest rate in the league. But let's be honest - those are not the only reasons I am picking him to score on Sunday.

This is a revenge game for Diggs, who might be the NFL's patron saint of petty. And since he and the Texans are still in their honeymoon phase, the team will likely do whatever it takes (i.e., feed him incessantly, especially near the goal line) to keep him happy. Diggs lives for moments like these. Look no further than him being targeted 28 times in two career games against the Minnesota Vikings. And his breakup with Buffalo was, in many ways, more contentious. Look for Diggs to exact a small measure of revenge by getting into the end zone in Week 5.

Baltimore Ravens at Cincinnati Bengals

Derrick Henry

I was quite tempted to go off-script here. The AFC Central matchup between the Baltimore Ravens and Cincinnati Bengals is shaping up as a close, high-scoring affair. Because of that, there is no shortage of anytime touchdown and first touchdown candidates. However, I could not justify fading Derrick Henry.

King Henry leads the league in rushing yards and is tied for the lead with six touchdowns on the season. Baltimore is tops in the NFL in both DVOA and expected points added (EPA) in terms of rushing offense. Meanwhile, the Cincinnati Bengals are a bottom-10 run defense in several key metrics. Only six teams have allowed more rushing touchdowns to opposing running backs than the Bengals have. I am willing to swallow the juice on this pick, so I am taking Henry as my touchdown scorer in this game.

Cleveland Browns at Washington Commanders

Jerry Jeudy

There has been a bit of a pattern developing for the Washington Commanders, particularly as it relates to first touchdowns:

  • Week 1: Mike Evans
  • Week 2: Devin Singletary
  • Week 3: Ja'Marr Chase
  • Week 4: Marvin Harrison Jr.

The Commanders have yet to score the first touchdown in any game this season. Three of the four touchdowns they have allowed have been to wide receivers, all of whom play on the outside. (In Week 2, Malik Nabers scored the second touchdown of the game.) I am going to play that trend again this week. The question becomes which Browns wideout to target.

Amari Cooper lines up outside on 76% of snaps. Jerry Jeudy lines up outside on 66%. Cooper has 37 total targets and two touchdowns this season, while Jeudy has 30 targets and one touchdown. Jeudy has performed better (13 receptions for 145 yards) against zone coverage than Cooper (10 receptions for 71 yards) has. This could be relevant because the Commanders play zone at an above-average rate. Jeudy also has slightly better anytime touchdown and first touchdown pricing. I am picking Jeudy here, but have no issue with anyone who prefers Cooper.

Las Vegas Raiders at Denver Broncos

Javonte Williams

Javonte Williams had easily his most productive game of the young season last week against the New York Jets. He did not score, but I expect that to change in Week 5 when Williams faces the Las Vegas Raiders. Las Vegas has allowed four touchdowns to opposing running backs this year. They have also given up 5.39 yards per carry to enemy backs. Williams has had at least 16 touches in two of Denver's last three games. Because of that, I prefer him over Jaleel McLaughlin, despite the latter having some intriguing anytime touchdown (+350, FanDuel Sportsbook) and first touchdown (+1300, Fanatics Sportsbook) pricing.

Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ers

Marvin Harrison Jr.

Jordan Mason is probably the player most likely to score a touchdown in this matchup. However, his anytime touchdown price is beyond gross. The cheapest I found is -227 at BetMGM.  Mason's first touchdown price is somewhat palatable at Fanatics Sportsbook, where he is listed at +405. But I am instead pivoting to Marvin Harrison Jr. I promise I am not only taking Harrison Jr. because of his wacky first touchdown pricing on Fanatics Sportsbook. But I also do not think that the probability of Harrison Jr. scoring is so much less than Mason’s that the current odds in each market would suggest.

While the expected positive game script is a potential boost for Mason, the same can be said of Harrison Jr. on the other side of the equation. The rookie wideout has scored four times already and could exploit San Francisco's shaky man coverage. The 49ers have allowed the most yards per snap in man coverage this year. Arizona has not faced a ton of man, but Harrison Jr. has been the primary target against that look. Harrison Jr. has been targeted 10 times on 29 routes run versus man coverage, resulting in two touchdowns. I believe the rookie can keep his touchdown streak intact even in a matchup that is less than ideal on paper.

New York Giants at Seattle Seahawks

Kenneth Walker III

Kenneth Walker overcame a two-week absence due to an oblique injury and scored three touchdowns on Monday night in a difficult matchup in Detroit. As long as there are no aftereffects from that injury, Walker has an excellent chance to find paydirt again this week against the New York Giants.

The Seahawks should lean heavily on Walker for multiple reasons. Seattle has had issues in pass protection, as their 33% pressure rate allowed is tops in the NFL. They are also heavy home favorites in this game. This should result in more rushing attempts, with Walker being the primary beneficiary.

If you want to get weird, Seattle's defense/special teams is +700 to score on FanDuel Sportsbook. The Giants will be without top wide receiver Malik Nabers and top running back Devin Singletary on Sunday afternoon. Quarterback Daniel Jones is no stranger to bad decisions and turnovers, especially when under duress.

Green Bay Packers at Los Angeles Rams

Jayden Reed

This is a situation similar to my Jerry Jeudy anytime touchdown/first touchdown pick where I went back and forth between two wide receivers on the same team. After debating between Jayden Reed and Dontavion Wicks, I landed on Reed. The Los Angeles Rams rank 31st in the NFL in EPA against the pass, as well as 31st in DVOA. They are especially poor in zone coverage despite playing it at the eighth-highest rate in the NFL. Los Angeles is allowing 7.73 yards per coverage snap when playing zone coverage. That is 30th in the league.

Reed's numbers both with Jordan Love and against zone coverage this year are ridiculous. Reed is averaging 4.85 yards per route run versus zone in the two games Love has played. For reference, Tyreek Hill led all full-time wideouts last year with 3.84 yards per route run against zone coverage. Teammate Jaylen Waddle was second at 3.09. Even if Reed stands to face some regression to the mean down the road, it may not happen this week. Give me Reed to score a touchdown in this game.

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Saturday:

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