NFL Week 5 Composite Power Ratings (2024)

Each week, I compile power ratings from a bevy of respected sources across the NFL handicapping community. Power ratings are designed to identify how many points a team would be favored by against an average team on a neutral field. By calculating the difference in ratings between the two teams (and adjusting for home-field advantage), you can get a ratings-implied spread to compare to the actual spread. In the second section, I’ve done that while assuming a value of 1.5 points for home-field advantage and using the composite spread from all the sources. Additionally, I’ve provided some comments on trends and numbers that stood out to me.

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Week 5 NFL Composite Power Ratings

• The hottest team in the NFL, and the biggest riser in the composite ratings, is your Washington Commanders. They’ll face one of their toughest tests defensively this week as they face the Cleveland Browns, a team heading in the opposite direction. Many have compared Washington to last year’s Houston Texans, another team that shocked the world on the back of outstanding performances from their rookie quarterback. But, one key difference exists: Washington’s defense is perhaps the worst in the league (they rank dead last in EPA per play allowed) while Houston had (at worst) a league-average defense to support CJ Stroud.
• I’m not shocked to see that the Miami Dolphins are now the lowest-rated team in the league. Mike McDaniel’s scheme clearly has not translated into success with the backup quarterbacks. Tua Tagovailo is eligible to come back in Week 8 and, shockingly, is on track to do so. That said, I wouldn’t expect Miami’s offense to return to its top-five form right away because they still averaged -0.134 EPA per play in the first two weeks of the season.

Week 5 Matchups

• This week, there aren’t many major discrepancies between the market and the composite ratings. The lone game with a difference greater than two points is between the Colts and the Jaguars. However, the Colts have some uncertainty on who will be starting at quarterback since Anthony Richardson exited last week’s game with a hip injury. I talked on this week’s BettingPros NFL show how I don’t think Joe Flacco starting over Richardson changes the Colts’ median outcome, but does slightly influence the tail outcomes in the game.
• The second-biggest difference comes between the Texans and Bills. Buffalo is obviously coming off of a blowout loss at the hands of the Ravens, but I’m not downgrading them much (if at all) for that given Baltimore’s strengths matched up particularly well against Buffalo in a way that I don’t think Houston will. I’m on Buffalo this week in a bounce-back spot against a Houston team that’s struggled more on offense to start the year.