NFL Week 5 Early Lines vs. Line Movement Predictions (2022)
The Vikings vs. Saints was a great example of how important it is to get in on bets at the right time. The Vikings opened as 2.5-point favorites, then closed favored by 3.5. They won by exactly three. Other games throughout the week were nail-biters both straight up and against the spread, but none toed the line quite like that matchup.
Week 5 features a lot of lines that are hovering right around key numbers. Where can you expect those lines to move?
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Indianapolis Colts at Denver Broncos
Thursday Night Football features a game between two of the most inconsistent teams in the NFL. Two weeks ago, the Colts took down the Chiefs, then they followed it up with a home loss to the Titans. Meanwhile, the Broncos finally found some offense, scoring more than 20 points for the first time this year, yet they lost to the previously 0-3 Raiders.
This number opened right at the key number, with Denver favored by three. These two teams are each 1-3 against the spread this season, so neither side will likely find much support from the betting public. However, the Broncos have looked terrible offensively at times this season, and they just lost Javonte Williams for the season.
The line won’t move much, but any movement will be important for a game that should be decided by a field goal either way.
Current Line: Broncos -3
Predicted Final Line: Broncos -2.5
New York Giants at Green Bay Packers
The Packers barely survived against the Patriots and Bailey Zappe, yet they are favored by more than a touchdown for the second consecutive week. The Giants are 3-1, but they have yet to beat a team above .500.
Against the spread, the Giants are 3-1 this season, while the Packers are 2-2. Dating back to last season, the Giants are 2-7 against the spread when they are underdogs by a touchdown or more. However, they have not been greater than 5.5-point underdogs this year.
The Packers are 1-1 against the spread this season when favored by more than a touchdown, but with a more recent bad performance on the minds of bettors, this line could move down to the key number and even possibly through it.
Current Line: Packers -8
Predicted Final Line: Packers -7
Miami Dolphins at New York Jets
Tua Tagovailoa has been ruled out ahead of the Dolphins’ Week 5 matchup with the Jets. That means the Dolphins turn to Teddy Bridgewater to try to move the team to 4-1. Meanwhile, the Jets finally got Zach Wilson back in Week 4, and he helped them outlast Kenny Pickett and the Steelers for their second win of the season.
The Dolphins have dominated the Jets over the past five seasons. They are 8-1 straight up and 7-1-1 against the spread. This line opened at -6, and while it dropped steeply, Oddsmakers have not dropped it below the key number of -3. That’s a sign that the books expect the Dolphins to continue their domination of the Jets, no matter who is at QB.
Current Line: Dolphins -3
Predicted Final Line: Dolphins -4
Pittsburgh Steelers at Buffalo Bills
The largest spread of the week belongs to the Steelers vs. the Bills. Kenny Pickett will likely make his first start in the NFL after scoring two touchdowns and throwing three interceptions in relief against the Jets. Meanwhile, the Bills will look for their first lopsided victory since Week 2 after two contentious games against the Dolphins and Ravens.
Despite how large this line is and how good the Steelers’ defense can be, it’s hard to imagine that the public will back the Steelers in this one. The Bills have won two games this season by three scores or more, and there is no reason to think they won’t blow out the Steelers in this one. If you’re on the Bills, the line likely won’t be better than this.
Current Line: Bills -14
Predicted Final Line: Bills -15.5
Detroit Lions at New England Patriots
The Lions’ offense is very good. However, their defense is historically bad. They have scored 30 or more points three times this season, yet they are 1-3 overall. Now they are less than field goal underdogs against the Patriots, who looked very good in Week 4 against the Packers.
The Patriots’ quarterback situation is up in the air after Brian Hoyer was injured last week and Bailey Zappe had to replace him. No matter who gets the start at QB, the Patriots should be able to score, but will they be able to stop the Lions’ offense?
The Lions are 3-1 against the spread this season, and they have covered in both games where they were underdogs. Look for the public to back the Lions even though their defense has been terrible, as the Patriots offense needs to figure itself out.
Current Line: Patriots -2.5
Predicted Final Line: Patriots -1.5
Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens
The Ravens have blown huge twice this season, making them a tough team to trust at the season’s quarter mark. The Bengals handed the Dolphins their first loss of the season on Thursday night, and they have won two consecutive.
This line opened right at the key number. The Bengals may look to some like they have turned a corner, but playing in Baltimore is never easy. Additionally, despite the Ravens losing last week, they actually pushed against the spread, moving them to 2-1-1 on the season. The Ravens have passed the eye test, they just need to close out games.
Current Line: Ravens -3
Predicted Final Line: Ravens -4
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Phil Wood is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Phil, check out his archive and follow him @Phil_Wood_Jr.