NFL Week 5 First Touchdown Scorer Odds, Picks & Predictions (2022)
Someone must score the first TD of the game, and this article will help you increase your odds of hitting on that player based on matchups and team strengths. It will feature a selection for each game of the Sunday slate.
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New York Giants @ Green Bay Packers
Romeo Doubs
Odds: +750 via BetMGM
In the first two games, the Packers got off to a slow start on offense. The Vikings and the Bears scored the first TD against them, but Green Bay bounced back. Romeo Doubs scored the first TD against the Buccaneers in week three, and Christian Watson scored against the Patriots last week. On the other side, the Giants have scored first on a rushing TD in their most recent games against the Cowboys and Bears. The Packers should start moving the ball from the jump, as the Giants allow 11.6 yards per completion, which is the sixth worst across the league. Doubs has seen eight targets in back-to-back weeks and out-snapped Watson 70 to 18 last game, so he is the best bet.
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Buffalo Bills
Gabe Davis
Odds: +750 via BetMGM
In the previous three games, the Steelers have allowed the first TD to an opposing wide receiver. The stars on this defense are injured; Minkah Fitzpatrick and Cameron Heyward are questionable for this week’s game, and T.J. Watt is on the IR. This trend seems more likely to continue than not, so Gabe Davis is the best play. When he suits up, he has yet to see less than 96% of snaps, and if Isaiah McKenzie (concussion) is out, he becomes a primary target of Josh Allen alongside Stefon Diggs.
Los Angeles Chargers @ Cleveland Browns
Kareem Hunt
Odds: +1100 via DraftKings Sportsbook
It is a matchup of good against bad for both offenses. The Browns allow 12.2 yards per completion, while the Chargers average 11.1 yards per completion. On the other side of the ball, the Chargers allow 5.4 yards per rush attempt, the second-worst in the league. The Browns can take advantage of this with their rushing attack. They have run for 749 yards as a team this season and average 5 per rush attempt. It might come down to who gets the ball first, and Kareem Hunt offers the best value. He sees about 45% of the snaps week-to-week and has a decent chance of scoring first.
Houston Texans @ Jacksonville Jaguars
Christian Kirk
Odds: +700 via FanDuel Sportsbook
The Texans have not scored first since their first game, and the Jaguars have scored first in every game but their first game. That trend is worth following as it demonstrates the improvement of Jacksonville’s offense. Trevor Lawrence seems to have taken a step forward in his second season and has built a good rapport with his new receiver, Christian Kirk. He has seen 26.9% of the team’s targets thus far, and most are longer passes. His average yards per reception is 16.4, and the Texans have allowed 11.9 yards per completion (fourth worst).
Chicago Bears @ Minnesota Vikings
Dalvin Cook
Odds: +600 via BetMGM
The Vikings are at home and may take less time to get things going on offense. The Bears allow 5.1 yards per rush attempt and 11 yards per completion. Dalvin Cook has yet to log a 100-yard game this season, but he has not looked bad despite dealing with a shoulder injury. He has also only found the end zone once so far compared to twice for his counterpart, Alexander Mattison. Cook averages 18 touches per game, and Mattison averages 6.2 touches per game, so the TDs should be coming for Cook.
Detroit Lions @ New England Patriots
Rhamondre Stevenson
Odds: +575 via Caesars Sportsbook
It is worth going back to the well with Stevenson this week. The Patriots lost to the Packers in overtime last week after Brian Hoyer exited the game in the first quarter with a concussion. Bailey Zappe came in and played decent for a rookie, but the Patriots ran the ball effectively. They had 167 rushing yards as a team, while Damien Harris averaged 4.8 yards per carry, and Stevenson averaged 4.7 yards. Mac Jones is still limited in practice and questionable to play Sunday. Either way, the Patriots’ rushing attack should be the primary weapon against the Lions, who allow a league-worst 5.6 yards per attempt.
Seattle Seahawks @ New Orleans Saints
Alvin Kamara
Odds: +550 via DraftKings Sportsbook
Kamara missed the last game while managing a rib injury but should be able to play this week at home. His quarterback, Jameis Winston, missed practice Thursday and will probably miss his second game in a row. Andy Dalton replaced him last week and played well in the loss to Minnesota. They had 111 rushing yards as a team without Kamara. He has yet to find the end zone this week, but the Saints will go to him early and often if he plays. Michael Thomas is also questionable and did not practice Thursday, and Kamara will be the Saints’ best offensive weapon on Sunday. The Seahawks have allowed the second-most total yards this season and are not good against the run or the pass.
Miami Dolphins @ New York Jets
Corey Davis
Odds: +1500 via FanDuel Sportsbook
Zach Wilson made his season debut last week for the Jets. He threw two interceptions, but they beat the Steelers thanks to Kenny Pickett’s three interceptions. The Dolphins lost Tua Tagovailoa due to a concussion last week, and Teddy Bridgewater replaced him as the signal caller. He threw for 193 yards with one TD and one interception. The Jets are undervalued at home, as the Dolphins will likely need some time to get comfortable on offense. Davis led them in targets last week with seven and has been a favorite target of Wilson.
Atlanta Falcons @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Mike Evans
Odds: +550 via DraftKings Sportsbook
The Falcons have won their last two games against the Browns and Seahawks, but they will have a much tougher test this week. The Buccaneers have lost their previous two games to the Packers and the Chiefs and want to right the ship at home. The Falcons have allowed 24 first-quarter points thus far and seven TDs through the air. Tom Brady and Mike Evans are in sync this season, with Evans catching three of Brady’s six TDs. Evans also has ten total TDs in 15 career games against the Falcons, so bet him with confidence.
Tennessee Titans @ Washington Commanders
Curtis Samuel
Odds: +1200 via BetMGM
Robert Woods scored the first TD last week but is not the best bet again this week. Both teams have allowed ten passing TDs this season and only one rushing TD each. Samuel is the play simply because he consistently receives the most targets for the Commanders. Woods has only received the highest target percentage once this season and has 13 receptions. Samuel, on the other hand, has 23 receptions and happens to be at a better price than Woods.
San Francisco 49ers @ Carolina Panthers
George Kittle
Odds: +900 via FanDuel Sportsbook
The 49ers have been the stingiest defense this season, only allowing 3.8 yards per play and 46 total points, both league-best. They have also scored the first TD in each of their games this season. On the other side, Carolina has scored first in their last three games, but the most recent two were defensive TDs. Carolina has also been weak against tight ends. They allowed the Cardinals’ tight ends to combine for nine receptions and 71 yards with one TD. Kittle has yet to score this year, but he should find the end zone in this one.
Philadelphia Eagles @ Arizona Cardinals
Dallas Goedert
Odds: +1100 via DraftKings Sportsbook
The Cardinals have allowed eight passing TDs this season and only three on the ground. They are good against the run, only allowing 87 yards per game and 4.3 yards per attempt. They will have a difficult matchup this week against the Eagles, who lead the league with ten rushing TDs. The Eagles can attack this defense any way they want because they also lead the league with 8.8 yards per pass attempt. Goedert is an excellent value after seeing a 24% target share last week, which was good for second on the team.
Dallas Cowboys @ Los Angeles Rams
Michael Gallup
Odds: +1900 via FanDuel Sportsbook
The Rams have not looked good on offense this season. They have scored 70 points this season, and the Cowboys have scored 71, which are both bottom five in the league. Neither team has a clear advantage to score the first TD, so the value is the next best thing. Gallup offers clear value, especially since CeeDee Lamb popped up on the injury report this week with a groin injury. He played 64% of snaps last week in his first game back since tearing his ACL last season. Cooper Rush looked his way three times, and Gallup caught two for a TD. At this price, he is well worth a stab.
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