NFL Week 5 Line Movement Analysis: Odds, Picks & Predictions (2023)

by Kurt Blakeway |
Oct 02, 2023

Week 5 is upon us! It began with an underwhelming “Thursday Night Football” game featuring the 0-4 Bears traveling to Washington to take on the 2-2 Commanders. However, we also have the pleasure of waking up early Sunday morning to another London matchup, with the Jaguars taking on Josh Allen and the Bills.

As always, we keep tabs on all the NFL lines, dissecting any significant move that may have happened early in the week.

With four games already moving at least 1.5 points, let’s look at the rest of the notable Week 5 line movement.

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NFL Week 5 Line Movement

(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)

Chicago Bears @ Washington Commanders

Open: Commanders -4.0 (-112)

Current: Commanders -6.5 (-112)

The betting public wants no part of Justin Fields and the Chicago Bears. Just when you thought the Bears started pulling everything together, it came crumbling down just as fast. The Bears had a 28-7 lead early in the third quarter, just to see it disappear as the Broncos scored 24 unanswered points for a 31-28 victory.

DraftKings opened this line with the Commanders as 4-point favorites, and it didn’t take long for the line to jump. By Monday morning, the line reached 7.0 in some spots and has now settled at 6.5.

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Buffalo Bills (London)

Open: Bills -4.5 (-110)

Current: Bills -6.0 (-110)

After shutting down the Dolphins’ high-flying offense, the Bills fly across the pond to take on the Jags in another UK showcase. This line opened up with the Bills as 4.5-point favorites, and after seeing how well the Bills played on Sunday, it’s no surprise this line has moved nearly two points.

Houston Texans @ Atlanta Falcons

Open: Falcons -2.5 (-110)

Current: Texans -1.0 (-110)

NFL fans worldwide are catching on to what C.J. Stroud and the Houston Texans are all about. Stroud is the second QB in NFL history with no INTs in his first four starts. He currently has 1,212 passing yards and six touchdowns. He has led the Texans to back-to-back wins with scores of 30 and 37 points.

This line opened with the Falcons as 2.0-point favorites but quickly flipped with Houston, now a 1.0-point road favorite.

Carolina Panthers @ Detroit Lions

Open: Lions -7.5 (-110)

Current: Lions -9.0 (-110)

Detroit is coming off an impressive 34-20 road victory against the Green Bay Packers. They now get a mini bye-week to help prepare for a struggling Panthers team. The Lions opened as 7.5 favorites and have seen this jump up to 9.0 and as high as 10.0 at some books.

Panthers are 0-2 on the road SU and ATS to start the 2023 season.

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Tuesday:

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