NFL Week 5 Picks & Predictions: Underdog Bets (2026)
Underdogs had another solid week, with five winning outright on Sunday and three more covering against the spread (ATS). That brings underdogs to 25-39 straight up (SU) and 34-23-1 ATS so far. Betting on underdogs has been a good idea this season. How about this week? After reviewing the games scheduled for Sunday, the following are my top underdog NFL Week 5 picks.
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NFL Week 5 Picks & Predictions: Underdog Bets
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Cleveland Browns vs. New York Jets
I hate to even think this, let alone type it, but the Browns are getting underestimated in this game (or maybe it's the Jets being overestimated). Statistically, the Jets should have an edge on defense, but with how Deshaun Watson has played the last few weeks, that may not be the case.
Yes, the Browns offense still has its faults. But Watson has improved week after week and made some incredible plays in clutch moments for the 3-1 Cleveland Browns (first in the AFC North). The Jets have played solid defense, but their offense has struggled, averaging 286 yards and 19 points per game. However, the Browns haven't done much better (292.5 yards and 20.3 points per game).
If you want to be cautious, take the points (+2.5), as this game will likely be close. But with how Watson and the Browns have been playing, I expect Cleveland to come out on top against this lackluster Jets team.
Pick: Browns Moneyline (+114)
San Francisco 49ers vs. Seattle Seahawks
The Seattle defense is incredible, but the 49ers have so many weapons on offense, and Brock Purdy has been playing lights out. With the Seahawks still struggling to establish the run, the 49ers’ defense may have a slight edge against Sam Darnold and Seattle's pass-dependent offense.
This will be a great, low-scoring game (much like last year's regular-season matchups) that either team could win outright. But since these are two really good teams, I'd suggest taking the 49ers and the points (+3) over the San Francisco Moneyline (+136).
Pick: 49ers +3 (-110)
Las Vegas Raiders vs. New England Patriots
I can't shake the feeling this line is inflated for the Patriots because Drake Maye and the offense had such a good game against a lackluster Bills defense last week. Maybe they’re on track now and just needed one game to shake off the doldrums that had controlled them for the first three weeks. Or maybe they took advantage of Buffalo's questionable defense and an inconsistent day for Josh Allen and the Bills’ offense.
Kirk Cousins and the Raiders have been one of the season’s more pleasant surprises so far. Despite a late turnover that gave Kansas City an 11-point lead with three minutes to go, they nearly got into field goal range and had a chance to send the game to overtime. This is not the same old Raiders. It's a team with talent that is well-coached and not folding under pressure.
They absolutely have a chance to win this one outright, but at the least, they'll stay within three points.
Picks: Raiders +3.5 (-110) & Browns Moneyline (+164)