NFL Week 5 Leans for Every Game & Best Bets (2022)
This season at BettingPros, we’re asking some of our experts to give leans and top picks for every game on the NFL slate. Here are all of their leans, picks, best bets and predictions for Week 5.
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Week 5 Spread Leans for Each Game
| Home Team | Away Team | Home Spread | Fitzmaurice | Freedman | Wolbransky | Santora | MacMillan |
| DEN | IND | -3.5 | IND | DEN | IND | DEN | DEN |
| GB | NYG | -8 | NYG | NYG | GB | NYG | NYG |
| BUF | PIT | -14 | PIT | PIT | PIT | BUF | PIT |
| CLE | LAC | 3 | LAC | CLE | CLE | CLE | CLE |
| MIN | CHI | -7 | CHI | MIN | CHI | MIN | CHI |
| WAS | TEN | 2.5 | WAS | WAS | WAS | WAS | WAS |
| JAX | HOU | -7 | JAX | HOU | JAX | JAX | HOU |
| NO | SEA | -5.5 | SEA | SEA | NO | SEA | SEA |
| TB | ATL | -9 | ATL | TB | ATL | TB | ATL |
| NYJ | MIA | 3 | NYJ | MIA | MIA | MIA | MIA |
| NE | DET | -3 | DET | DET | DET | DET | DET |
| CAR | SF | 6.5 | CAR | CAR | CAR | CAR | CAR |
| ARI | PHI | 5.5 | ARI | ARI | PHI | ARI | ARI |
| LAR | DAL | -5.5 | LAR | LAR | LAR | DAL | DAL |
| BAL | CIN | -3 | CIN | CIN | BAL | BAL | CIN |
| KC | LV | -7 | KC | KC | KC | KC | LV |
Chiefs (-7) vs. Raiders
Patrick Mahomes is a tough matchup for anyone, and the Raiders seem especially ill-equipped to handle him. The Las Vegas pass defense ranks 22nd in DVOA and could be without CBs Rock Ya-Sin and Anthony Averett and coverage LB Denzel Perryman. The Chiefs are 8-1 straight up in their last nine games against the Raiders. The Raiders are 1-5 against the spread in their last six road games. My projection has the Chiefs favored by 8.5 points, so getting them at 7 points seems like terrific value.
– Pat Fitzmaurice
Lions (+3) vs. Patriots
The Patriots don’t have a healthy quarterback with NFL experience. That alone should seemingly disqualify them from being favorites. The Lions offense is No. 2 in rush EPA per play, and the Patriots defense is No. 29. The Lions should be able to run on the Patriots with ease and thereby control the ball and the clock.
– Matthew Freedman
49ers (-6.5) vs. Panthers
The 49ers dismantled the reigning Super Bowl champions on Monday Night Football week 4. The Rams didn’t score a single touchdown despite OPOY Cooper Kupp having 14 catches for 122 yards. No one on the Panthers has the amount of play-making ability as Cooper Kupp. Stafford and Baker Mayfield both have a passer rating of around 80, except Baker’s completion percentage is 57% to Stafford’s 70%. SF has a top 10 turnover margin in the league, while Carolina is bottom 6. As long as San Fransisco’s Defense shuts down Baker the same way they shut down the Rams’ offense, 6.5 points is a breeze.
– Ben Wolbransky
Cowboys (+5.5) vs. Rams
Matthew Stafford has taken the second most sacks in the league, including seven last Monday night against the 49ers. Meanwhile, the Cowboys’ defense has 15 sacks on the year and has allowed the third-fewest points in the league. The Cowboys’ defense has not given up more than 20 points in a game this season, while the Rams’ offense has topped that number once in four weeks. I think the Cowboys have enough to keep this game close against a struggling Rams offense.
– Dylan Santora
Dolphins (-3) vs. Jets
I believe that we’re getting more than a couple of points of value on the Dolphins’ side in this matchup, as the lookahead line was sitting around Jets +6 before last week’s games were played. Though the Jets hold a 2-2 record, they still rank in the bottom half of the league in scoring on both sides of the ball, and have been the beneficiary of terrible miscues by their opponents to mount two 10+ point fourth quarter comebacks. On the other side, “Teddy Covers†has earned his nickname; as a starter, Bridgewater holds a phenomenal 42-20-1 record ATS, with a 24-6 record ATS in road games. Teddy is not as big of a dropoff at QB as this week’s line indicates, and the Dolphins’ offense still has enough weapons to outgun this Jets team that is lucky to not be 0-4.
– Austin MacMillan
Week 5 Total Leans for Each Game
| Home Team | Away Team | Over/Under | Fitzmaurice | Freedman | Wolbransky | Santora | MacMillan |
| DEN | IND | 42 | Over | Over | Over | Under | Under |
| GB | NYG | 40.5 | Under | Over | Over | Over | Over |
| BUF | PIT | 46.5 | Over | Over | Over | Under | Under |
| CLE | LAC | 47.5 | Under | Over | Under | Over | Over |
| MIN | CHI | 44 | Under | Under | Under | Under | Under |
| WAS | TEN | 42.5 | Under | Under | Under | Under | Over |
| JAX | HOU | 43.5 | Under | Over | Over | Under | Over |
| NO | SEA | 46 | Under | Under | Under | Over | Under |
| TB | ATL | 48 | Under | Under | Under | Over | Over |
| NYJ | MIA | 46 | Under | Under | Over | Over | Under |
| NE | DET | 45.5 | Over | Under | Under | Under | Under |
| CAR | SF | 38.5 | Over | Over | Over | Over | Over |
| ARI | PHI | 49 | Over | Under | Under | Under | Over |
| LAR | DAL | 43.5 | Over | Under | Under | Under | Under |
| BAL | CIN | 48.5 | Under | Over | Under | Over | Over |
| KC | LV | 51 | Under | Under | Under | Under | Over |
Dolphins vs. Jets UNDER 46
This game has a great deal of skill-position talent on both sides of the ball … but not at quarterback. The Jets’ Zach Wilson had a nice fourth quarter last week in his season debut but was disheveled for most of the first three quarters. Teddy Bridgewater is a competent backup but more of a caretaker than playmaker. Although these two teams have not acquitted themselves well defensively this season, it’s hard to see a Bridgewater-Wilson matchup going over 46 points.
– Pat Fitzmaurice
Titans vs. Commanders UNDER 43
Ryan Tannehill is bottom 5 in Yards per Attempt among starting QBs vs Cover 1, which Washington is running at the 3rd highest rate. The unimpressive Titans offense also has to rely on a wide receiver core that’s missing Rookie Treylon Burks; this group has the 6th fewest receiving yards through 4 weeks. Washington, on the other hand, ranks 3rd in worst offensive EPA. I see both offenses struggling to move the ball in a low-scoring affair.
– Ben Wolbransky
Bengals at Ravens OVER 48.5
The average combined total of the two matchups last year between the Bengals and Ravens was 60 points. The Ravens have already been involved in two games this season where the total sailed over 60 points. The Bengals have bounced back from their 0-2 start, where the offense scored 27 points each of the last two weeks. The Bengals should be able to put similar points up this week against a Ravens defense that has given up the most passing yards in the league through four weeks.
– Dylan Santora
Lions vs. Patriots UNDER 45.5
The QB situation is up in the air in New England, as we will likely either see Bailey Zappe make his first-ever start under center in the NFL or a hobbled Mac Jones, who wasn’t exactly lighting it up before his injury. Even though Zappe displayed the ability to make some nice throws last week, the game plan was extremely conservative and run-heavy, with the intent to shorten the game and let their defense work to generate good field position. While it’s true that the Lions have been an over bettor’s best friend through the first 4 weeks, scoring the most points in the league while also surrendering the most points, this will be their first matchup in a game that is played outdoors. I expect for the Patriots to take the same conservative approach no matter who starts at QB in Week 5 and for the Lions’ offense to finally slow down against a tough Bill Belichick-coached defense.
– Austin MacMillan
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