NFL Week 5 Preview: Picks & Predictions (Bills vs. Texans)
The Texans will host the Buffalo Bills at NRG Stadium in Houston this week with kickoff at 1 p.m. ET. Houston opened as just a 1.5-point favorite over the visiting Bills, but the line has since moved to -1 at most major sportsbooks.
Both teams will be looking for redemption. The Bills will want to prove they are better than the 35-10 beatdown the Ravens gave them last week. While the Texans beat the Jaguars 24-20 in the end, they needed a late fourth-quarter touchdown to keep from getting upset by the winless Jaguars.
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Bills vs. Texans Betting Preview
(Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook)
Let’s take a look at the betting line for Sunday’s Texans vs. Bills matchup.
Details
- Opening Line: Texans -1.5, O/U: 48 Points
- Closing Line: Texans -1, O/U (-110): 47 Points (-110/-110)
- Location: NRG Stadium in Houston, Texas
- Start Time: 1 p.m. ET
- TV: CBS
- Last Meeting: October 3, 2021: Bills won 40-0
Overview
Houston got the bounce-back win they wanted last week after getting thumped by the Minnesota Vikings a week earlier. But it wasn’t exactly the performance the team had hoped for. While C.J. Stroud had an impressive day, throwing for 345 yards and a pair of touchdowns, the offense continued to struggle in the run game in the absence of Joe Mixon.
As for the defense, it held Trevor Lawrence to just 169 yards, but they struggled to slow down the Jaguars’ run game (24 carries for 158 yards; 6.6 yards per carry). That may not seem like it could be a problem against a middle-of-the-road run game (108.3 yards per game; No.17 in the league). But the numbers are a little misleading.
Bills running back James Cook is averaging a respectable 4.5 yards per carry (50 carries) and Josh Allen is not afraid to run either (22 carries; 4.8 yards per carry). Last week’s loss to the Ravens was their first of the season and they were also held to under 100 yards on the ground.
Buffalo may need to get the run game on track to take pressure off Josh Allen in the passing game. The Texans’ defense has been tough to throw on this year (161 yards per game allowed; fourth-best).
Establishing the run could be crucial for Houston as well. The Bills have a solid secondary that has allowed 165.3 yards per game this season. But Buffalo is giving up nearly as many yards per game on the ground (156.5 yards per game allowed; No. 30).
But since Mixon has been out, the Texans have struggled to run the ball. They gained just over 100 against the Jaguars last week but managed only 75 and 38 in the previous two weeks.
Trends
- Josh Allen is 1-2 against the Texans in his career, but the last time he faced them was in 2021.
- The betting public favors the Bills to win outright, with 62% of the Moneyline tickets and 69% of the handle.
- Visiting teams are 31-34 straight up (SU) and 34-28-3 against the spread (ATS).
- Favorites are 39-26 SU and 28-34-3 ATS.
Bottom Line
This game is a tough one to call. Both teams have things going for and against them. If Houston can get the run game going with Cam Akers or Dameon Pierce (if he’s active), the Texans will have an advantage. But the same can be said for the Bills if James Cook and Josh Allen can get the Buffalo ground game going.
However, the Texans have more talent in the passing game. If they can get out to an early lead and force Buffalo to throw then they will have the advantage.
Pick: Texans Moneyline (-118)