NFL Week 5 Teasers: Picks & Predictions (2024)
One popular way bettors try to find value on NFL lines is by playing teasers. An NFL teaser is similar to a parlay; you add multiple legs that must all win for the bet to pay out. The key difference from parlays is that a teaser allows you to buy points - like 6.0, 6.5, or 7.0 - in a direction that lowers risk.
Teaser Tips to Follow:
- Never cross over 0
- Tease through two key numbers, ideally 3 & 7
- Tease games with lower totals, ideally anything 49 or fewer
Below are four teaser options for Week 5, along with my best teaser bet.
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Week 5 Teaser Options
(Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook)
New York Jets (+2.5 to +8.5) vs. Minnesota Vikings
This is the first game of the 2024 season being played in London. Usually, these games are not high scoring, which eliminates any outlandish variance.
The Minnesota Vikings are one of the last two remaining undefeated teams, and public perception may be overvaluing this team.
Both the Vikings and Jets have top-five defenses in terms of success rate and dropback expected points added (EPA), so I don’t imagine this Vikings offense, which is fourth in points per game, winning by a wide margin, especially since this total is set at 40 points.
Give me Aaron Rodgers and the Jets in a close defensive battle.
Cincinnati Bengals (+2.5 to +8.5) vs. Baltimore Ravens
After starting the season 0-3, the Bengals got their first win against Andy Dalton and the Carolina Panthers. While that is not very impressive, the more important thing is the team is finally getting healthy and gaining some chemistry.
Since Joe Burrow joined the Bengals, they have been notorious for getting off to slow starts, but with a win last week, this could be the start of a nice run.
Joe Burrow entered the league in 2020 in games where he started and finished the game. He is 4-3 against the Ravens, with two of those three losses coming by three points or fewer. All four of his wins were by seven points or more, so it’s safe to say Burrow has done pretty well against his division rival.
I like the Bengals to get an outright win here at home, but if not, they should be able to keep this within 8.5 points.
Houston Texans (+1 to +7) vs. Buffalo Bills
We are not getting through the key number 7 here, but I still like getting Houston with 7 points against a Buffalo team that is also a bit overvalued.
This is not to discredit the Bills in any way because Josh Allen and company have looked great, but their three wins have come against teams that are below average in almost every offensive category.
It seems the Bills may have trouble with teams with a high-powered offense. They nearly lost to a Cardinals team ranked 10th in offensive EPA/play and then took a beating from the Ravens, who rank third.
The Texans’ defense has been burned by good offenses and the Vikings torched them 24-7 two weeks ago.
This will depend on which defense makes more plays. With Buffalo now without Von Miller, I give Houston the edge. I like them to win this game outright, but it’s nice to have a 7-point cushion.
Best Bet: Week 5 6-Point Teaser
Bengals +8.5/Texans +7 (-120 at DraftKings Sportsbook)
Make sure to check out our other best bets for Thursday: