NFL Week 6 Anytime TD Scorer Picks & Predictions (2024)
Last week was a rough one on the Anytime Touchdown (ATD) front. I only hit three out of 11. Adding insult to injury was Seattle's defense scoring the first touchdown after I mentioned them but went the “safer” route. The silver lining was that two of the three hits were also First Touchdown (FTD) hits. This mitigated most of the damage. Hopefully this week we can get back on track.
Below are my favorite ATD and FTD picks for all 11 games on Sunday's main slate, including the London game.
As always, I am tracking these using bet sizes of 0.4 units on ATD and 0.1 units on FTD. Use your discretion and adjust as you see fit. We compare anytime touchdown stats to prop bet odds and projections to help identify this week's best bets.
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Best NFL Week 6 Anytime TD Scorer Prop Bets
(All wagers are 0.5 units)
Jacksonville Jaguars at Chicago Bears
- Anytime TD Odds: +175 at FanDuel Sportsbook
- First TD Odds: +1050 at Fanatics Sportsbook
DJ Moore went off for 105 yards and two touchdowns in a revenge game last week against the Carolina Panthers. That level of production is certainly in play for Moore again this week when the Bears travel to London to face the Jaguars. Jacksonville has the worst pass defense in the NFL while sporting an above-average run defense. This should lead to Chicago attacking Jacksonville through the air. Moore has caught three of rookie Caleb Williams' five touchdown passes this season. Moore leads the team in all receiving categories and has been Chicago's most effective receiver versus man coverage. That is important because the Jaguars play man at the third-highest rate in the league. I expect Moore to find the end zone against a secondary that has allowed seven touchdowns to wide receivers.
Washington Commanders at Baltimore Ravens
I have been riding Derrick Henry for multiple weeks now, and it has paid off on more than one occasion. However, success can be a fickle mistress, especially when it comes to sportsbooks. Henry is now -250 or worse to score this week. BetRivers has him at -480. I am usually of the mindset that a win is a win, but these prices are ridiculous. If Henry were to score a touchdown but not the first touchdown using my 0.4U ATD/0.1U FTD bet structure, you would lose money on BetRivers. And you wouldn't make much of a profit anywhere else either. So, I am going to look elsewhere for my ATD/FTD looks in this game. The good news is this game should feature plenty of scoring.
Both quarterbacks are playing outstanding football. Lamar Jackson and Jayden Daniels are among the early favorites for the league's MVP Award and both defenses have been better against the run than the pass. The Commanders (10) and Ravens (9) have allowed more touchdowns to wide receivers than any other team in the NFL. Terry McLaurin dropped a would-be touchdown last week but secured touchdown grabs in each of his previous two games. He is far and away Washington's most productive wideout. McLaurin has more than twice as many receptions, targets, and receiving yards than any other Commanders wide receiver. He should also get the most favorable individual matchup when Baltimore defaults to playing man coverage. Throw in a tasty FTD price and McLaurin is my preferred ATD/FTD pick in this game.
Houston Texans at New England Patriots
- Anytime TD Odds: +360 at Caesars Sportsbook
- First TD Odds: +1500 at Fanatics Sportsbook
Dalton Schultz has yet to score this season. That could be a bad sign, or (as in the opposite of the Derrick Henry pricing) it could provide us an opportunity. The Houston Texans will be without star wide receiver Nico Collins for this game. In his stead, Houston still has two solid wideouts in Stefon Diggs and Tank Dell. However, Diggs is more of a zone-beater (New England plays man at the fourth-highest rate in the NFL) and Dell has not looked like himself coming off of last year's injury. Running back Joe Mixon should be back but has not played since Week 2. Enter Schultz, who is third on the team in targets behind only Collins and Diggs.
Texans tight ends caught 25.9 percent of the team's touchdown passes last year and the Patriots rank 28th in the NFL in defensive DVOA against opposing tight ends. This feels like a good spot for Dalton Schultz to record his first touchdown of the 2024 season.
Cleveland Browns at Philadelphia Eagles
- Anytime TD Odds: -170 at Caesars Sportsbook
- First TD Odds: +350 at Fanatics Sportsbook
I suppose that this price is my line of demarcation concerning ATD and FTD bets. The prices for Saquon Barkley to score a Week 6 touchdown are not a whole lot better than the prices are for Derrick Henry. However, I must admit that I am more comfortable laying -170 than I am -250. This is why I always try to advise people to adjust based on their thresholds. You might not think -250 is a bad price the way Henry has performed. Or you may think -170 is too rich for Barkley now that A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith are back in the fold. With all of that said, here is why I am on Saquon Barkley this week.
Yes, Brown and Smith should be back this week, but they are both coming off rather long layoffs. Brown has not played since the season opener, while Smith has been out since Week 3. The Cleveland Browns have been a better pass defense (13th in DVOA) than run defense (23rd) to start the year. They have allowed six rushing touchdowns to enemy backs this season. Barkley has scored four times in four games and has recorded at least 116 yards from scrimmage in each game thus far. He may see a slight reduction in work with the Eagles' wide receivers back in the fold. Still, Barkley remains the focal point of this offense, and that should be the case again on Sunday. The Eagles are also the largest favorite on the Week 6 board, which could lead to more volume for Barkley.
Indianapolis Colts at Tennessee Titans
Trey Sermon did not have the most efficient day filling in for Jonathan Taylor last week. The journeyman running back parlayed 16 touches into just 63 yards, but he did score, and that is all that matters for our purposes. Sermon handled seven red-zone touches and was the Colts' favorite option near the goal line. That role should remain secure even with quarterback Anthony Richardson expected to return. The oft-injured Richarson missed last week's game due to an oblique injury. I am not sure how much Indianapolis is going to feature Richardson in the running game given his injury. The Tennessee Titans are in the middle of the pack in DVOA versus the run and are just 28th against running backs as receivers out of the backfield. Sermon caught six balls last week, so he could be a dual-threat ATD/FTD scorer in Week 6.
Arizona Cardinals at Green Bay Packers
- Anytime TD Odds: -110 at Fanatics Sportsbook
- First TD Odds: +600 at Fanatics Sportsbook
I am giving the Green Bay Packers the ATD/FTD advantage here because they rank in the top 10 in both passing EPA and rushing EPA on offense, while the Arizona Cardinals are in the bottom 10 in both passing EPA and rushing EPA on defense. The question then becomes which Packer to pick. Even though Josh Jacobs has only scored once so far this season, he is my preferred choice in this game. His volume has been as steady as just about anyone in the league. Jacobs has earned 15 or more opportunities in all five games this year. He has 16 red-zone opportunities, with 11 coming in the three games Jordan Love has played. No other Packer has more than five red-zone opportunities all season. I like Josh Jacobs to find the end zone in Week 6 and enjoy his first-ever Lambeau Leap.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New Orleans Saints
- Anytime TD Odds: +175 at DraftKings Sportsbook
- First TD Odds: +1000 at Fanatics Sportsbook
Derek Carr's absence in Week 6 will probably harm all Saints skill position players. As good as they have been on both sides of the ball (particularly in the red zone), I have to fade them with my Week 6 ATD and FTD bets. It does not help matters that their offensive line seems to be trending in the wrong direction as they get ready to take on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
The Saints have some contrasting numbers when it comes to their pass defense. They have only allowed one passing touchdown against them in five games. However, they have allowed the most yards per reception and second-most yards per coverage snap when playing man coverage. That is relevant because they play man at the seventh-highest rate in the NFL. Most of that damage has come against slot corner Alontae Taylor, who has allowed 28 receptions on 33 targets in his coverage so far this season. Though it has not resulted in any touchdowns, Taylor allowed six scores last year, two of which came at the hands of the Buccaneers. With Mike Evans likely resuming his rivalry with Marshon Lattimore on the outside, Godwin should be free to operate in open space over the middle. I like him to find the end zone in this matchup.
Pittsburgh Steelers at Las Vegas Raiders
- Anytime TD Odds: +380 at FanDuel Sportsbook
- First TD Odds: +1500 at Fanatics Sportsbook
The Steelers and Raiders square off on Sunday in a matchup of two of the NFL's most storied franchises. However, these offenses are a lot less potent than they were in the glory days of generations past. Pittsburgh is 11th in defensive DVOA but just 22nd on the offensive end. Las Vegas ranks in the bottom five in the NFL in both offensive and defensive DVOA. Vegas also ranks 31st in defensive DVOA versus opposing tight ends. Because of that, I am picking Pat Freiermuth for my ATD and FTD bets. The Steelers' tight end leads the team with two touchdown catches and is second in receptions, targets, and receiving yards.
Los Angeles Chargers at Denver Broncos
This clash between AFC West foes features two teams who are top-five in defensive DVOA while ranking bottom-10 in offensive DVOA. Points are likely to be at a premium in this matchup. Only three Chargers and four Broncos have scored touchdowns so far this season. I like Ladd McConkey to score for Los Angeles in this game. The rookie leads the Chargers in receiving and has already scored twice this year. He should also have a relatively favorable matchup. Denver plays man coverage at the second-highest rate in the league. McConkey lines up inside on just under 70 percent of offensive snaps. That means he should avoid the coverage of Patrick Surtain II. Given the odds involved, I think McConkey makes for an intriguing ATD/FTD pick in this game.
Detroit Lions at Dallas Cowboys
Unlike the last two games, there should be plenty of points put up when the Detroit Lions and Dallas Cowboys square off. The implied total for this game is 52.5 points, which is one of the highest of the season. Because of that, I am tempted to take a longer shot here. However, I simply cannot ignore how bad the Cowboys have been defensively against running backs. Dallas ranks 31st in defensive DVOA versus the run and 32nd against running backs as receivers out of the backfield. The Cowboys have given up seven touchdowns to opposing backs through five games. Meanwhile, Detroit ranks second in DVOA in rushing offense. Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery have each scored four touchdowns in as many games for the Lions. I am going with Gibbs, but both are extremely viable ATD/FTD picks in Week 6.
Atlanta Falcons at Carolina Panthers
- Anytime TD Odds: +125 at Fanatics Sportsbook
- First TD Odds: +800 at Fanatics Sportsbook
Falcons quarterback Kirk Cousins averaged 216 passing yards and one touchdown pass over his first four games. He then proceeded to explode for 509 passing yards and four scores in a thrilling overtime victory against Tampa Bay. While it would be foolish to expect those numbers out of Cousins again anytime soon, Atlanta's passing attack should continue to improve as Cousins gains more familiarity with his new team. He seems to have developed an immediate rapport with his top two wideouts, Drake London and Darnell Mooney. Both are on pace for over 1,000 receiving yards. I think his connection with London in particular will be on full display in Week 6 when the Falcons face the Carolina Panthers.
Carolina ranks 30th in the NFL in both EPA and DVOA against the pass. They play man coverage at a relatively low rate, opting for zone coverage nearly three-quarters of the time. London leads Atlanta in target rate, receptions, and receiving yards versus zone coverage. The Falcons move London, Mooney, and Ray-Ray McCloud all over the offensive formation. All three play between 35 and 47 percent of their snaps from the slot, and all three have performed well against zone coverage. Interestingly enough, I have not seen any of the sportsbooks release ATD and FTD lines for McCloud as of yet. Depending on the prices, I may be interested in McCloud for ATD/FTD bets. For now, though, I am banking on London, who has scored in three of his last four games while drawing 41 targets.