NFL Player Prop Bets Odds, Picks & Predictions: Fitz’s Week 6 Favorites (2022)
We’ve reached the bye weeks. Unfortunately, we’ll have fewer player props to choose from each week. The good news is that with five weeks of NFL games in the books, we have a solid data sample to guide our decisions.
Last week’s bets went 5-3, bringing us to 21-13 on the year.
The wins: Cooper Rush under 239.5 passing yards, Michael Carter under 31.5 rushing yards, Breece Hall over 64.5 rushing + receiving yards, James Conner over 42.5 rushing yards, Terry McLaurin over 55.5 receiving yards.
The losses: Christian Kirk over 63.5 receiving yards, Noah Fant under 21.5 receiving yards, George Kittle over 39.5 receiving yards.
Let’s get to the selections for Week 6 …
Last week: 5-3
Season record: 21-13
All odds are courtesy of DraftKings as of early Thursday afternoon.
Marcus Mariota UNDER 194.5 passing yards (-115)
Find yourself a life partner who loves you the way Falcons head coach and playcaller Arthur Smith loves the running game. Atlanta has run on 54.4% of its offensive snaps this season. Mariota hasn’t attempted more than 26 passes in a game since Week 1. In Week 3, he threw 20 passes against Seattle. In Week 4, he threw 19 passes against Cleveland. It wasn’t because those were easy Falcons victories with run-friendly game scripts – they were both tight games decided by less than a touchdown. Expect another close-to-the-vest offensive gameplan from Smith against a 49ers defense allowing the sixth-fewest passing yards per game (206.2).
Kyler Murray OVER 261.5 passing yards (-115)
Murray leads the league in pass attempts (215) and completions (141). He’s averaging only 248.2 passing yards per game, down from 270.5 last year, because he’s slipped from 7.9 yards per attempt in 2021 to 5.7 this year. That number is bound to come up, and it’s a good bet Murray will exceed 5.7 yards per attempt this week against a porous Seattle pass defense that has given up 8.8 yards per attempt this year. Cardinals RB James Conner is dealing with a rib injury and might not play, which could thwart Arizona’s attempt to run the ball effectively and force Murray to throw 40-plus times.
Breece Hall OVER 57.5 rushing yards (-115)
Hall’s usage continues to increase. He played 66% of the Jets’ offensive snaps and had 17 carries in Week 4. Hall had a 69% snap share and had 18 carries in Week 5. Expect another week of heavy usage against a run-funnel Green Bay defense. Opponents are running the ball on 50% of their offensive snaps against the Packers, who are giving up 112.4 rushing yards per game.
Jeff Wilson OVER 66.5 rushing yards (-115)
Since taking over as the 49ers’ lead back in Week 2 in place of the injured Elijah Mitchell, Wilson has beaten this number in 4-of-4 games, averaging 88.3 rushing yards per contest over that stretch. This Sunday, Wilson faces a Falcons defense giving up 4.7 yards per carry. With San Francisco favored by 5.5 over Atlanta, a run-friendly game script seems likely for the Niners.
Dalvin Cook UNDER 73.5 rushing yards (-115)
Cook has run for 90 or more yards in favorable matchups against the soft Green Bay, Detroit and Chicago run defenses, but he had 6-17-0 rushing against a good Eagles run defense in Week 2 and 20-76-0 against a solid Saints run defense in Week 4. This week, Cook goes on the road to face a sturdy Dolphins run defense that has allowed the third-fewest rushing yards to running backs and is giving up 3.5 yards per carry to opposing RBs. Cook has been dealing with a shoulder injury, and his snap shares have been decreasing in recent weeks, falling to a season-low 57% in Week 5. This is a high bar for Cook to reach on reduced snaps against a strong run defense.
Diontae Johnson UNDER 58.5 receiving yards (-115)
Johnson is still adjusting to a post-Roethlisberger landscape. In five games with either Mitchell Trubisky or Kenny Pickett at quarterback, Johnson is averaging 9.5 yards per catch and 5.3 yards per target — down from 10.9 and 6.9 last season with Ben Roethlisberger at QB. I’m very interested in betting unders involving Johnson these days because rookie RB George Pickens looks like a budding superstar for the Steelers and seems destined to surpass Johnson as Pittsburgh’s top receiver. Johnson also has a difficult matchup this week against a Buccaneers defense allowing 6.7 yards per target to wide receivers. He’s likely to run most of his routes against Tampa CB Jamel Dean, who, as my colleague Derek Brown notes in this week’s installment of The Primer, is allowing a 44% catch rate and a 44.6 passer rating on throws into his coverage.
Robbie Anderson UNDER 35.5 receiving yards (-115)
Anderson has fallen short of this number in four straight games. Since Week 2, Anderson has averaged a woeful 0.76 yards per route run. This week, he’s going to be catching passes from third-string QB P.J. Walker. It must be noted that Anderson has topped this number in two previous Walker starts, finishing with 7-46-0 receiving on nine targets in Week 11 of 2020, and with 4-37-1 on six targets in Week 10 of 2021. But the Panthers had better offensive coordinators than current OC Ben McAdoo calling the plays in those games.
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